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Friday, March 06, 2015

Well, wrong again.  The Dow got clobbered on a strong employment report.  The most watched index dropped 279 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  I expected things to work out to the upside.  The technicals suggested otherwise.  Always go with the technical indicators.  The short term indicators for the major stock indices had already rolled over.  I refused to believe them.  Once again the lack of discipline comes back to bite me.  Well at least I didn't purchase any SPY March calls before the report.  Getting pretty short term oversold after today.  I could make a case for buying those calls on weakness Monday.  But it may just be a bounce.  GE shed 1/3 on light volume.  We closed a touch below 25.50 here and I'm still holding on to the March calls.  The short term technicals have rolled over here as well.  However there has been buying late in the day for GE recently and that is a plus.  Or perhaps I am just trying to find something to justify holding onto these options.  Surprisingly, they are still showing a profit.  Gold got crushed as a looming rate hike plus a very strong dollar today sunk the precious metal.  The gold futures fell over $30 and well below the $1200 level.  The dollar was up over a point.  The XAU lost almost 5 and GDX dropped 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  No hurry to get any gold share calls.  March is the weakest month for gold and at least that is going according to plan.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  I don't have a good handle on the stock market at the moment.  At least I recognize that fact.  I really didn't expect the drop that we got today.  That said, things are technically getting to a point where a nice bounce can be expected.  Perhaps the SPY March calls on weakness Monday will be the right idea.  It's something to look at over the weekend.  That said, sitting on the sidelines for now might not be a bad idea either.  My GE March call trade now doesn't look so good on the weekly chart.  If I can dump it early next week, that might be the best course of action at this point.  Unless the market does a complete turnaround and starts to rally.  I don't think that is going to happen.  But obviously my ideas are not working at the moment.  Patience remains the watchword for the gold market.  Evidently getting March puts would have been the better idea than to wait to get long later on.  But I missed that as well.  I suppose when things aren't going right for you, there isn't any reason to expect that you'll make the right choices.  But no matter.  The markets don't care and things move along.  I'll have to look everything over again this weekend and hopefully come up with something going forward.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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