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Tuesday, March 10, 2015

The market is in trouble now.  The Dow got clobbered and closed on the lows for the day.  The most watched index fell 332 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We did not hold the 2050 level on the S&P 500 and the uptrend line from last October has been broken.  It looks like the market will be negative for the March option cycle.  I missed it, as my take on things unfolding was wrong.  There isn't any doubt about what is happening now.  The short term technical indicators are oversold and staying there.  I suppose the next level of support is the 2000 level at the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500.  GE lost almost 1/2 on better volume.  We're right at the 200 day moving average for GE.  My GE March calls are now losers as I have held on to them way too long.  They should have been sold days ago.  My wrong view of the overall picture led me to continue to hold this position when it should have simply been liquidated.  I doubt the analyst conference tomorrow will help GE at this moment.  Looks like another losing trade with the lack of discipline returning.  Gold couldn't catch a bid as the futures lost $6.  The US dollar soared and is going parabolic.  We all know how that usually ends.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4.  No rush to purchase the gold share calls as we are on the brink of breaking the near term lows of the past 6 months.  No flight to safety here just yet.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I once again could not do what had to be done with the GE option trade.  A winner turned into a loser.  I only see things getting worse for both GE and the overall market.  We'll have to take our cues from the summation index and it is going down.  Despite the market being short term oversold, todays price action was weak.  Most of the major industry groups have rolled over.  The bank stress test results will be out tomorrow.  It seems the market already knows that there will be a negative surprise.  Is it too early to be looking at the SPY April calls?  I don't know but probably.  I don't think any near term bounces that we see will hold.  Let me state the obvious.  Volatility has returned.  That will increase the option premiums but it will also make it harder to trade.  Whipsaws will happen.  I suppose when I take the loss in the GE calls I'll simply head for the sidelines.  We'll see if the overseas market follow the Dow lower and brace ourselves for whatever happens tomorrow.

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