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Friday, March 13, 2015

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 145 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were a bit more than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold around the 50 day moving average.  I guess we'll find out next week what is going to happen.  All eyes and ears will be on the Fed Wednesday.  That should be quite a session, considering that it is option expiration week as well.  I will say that the last hours price action was encouraging for the bulls.  The market came back instead of tanking.  But the short term trend remains down.  GE fell 1/3 on good volume.  The 200 day moving average here has been violated.  My GE March calls are now losers.  Why would I continue to hold on to this trade?  Well for one thing, there isn't a lot of money involved.  I also think that there is a chance next week that the market rallies after the Fed.  The technical conditions in the short term remain overbought.  Gold finished the session flat on the futures despite another positive day for the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX ended the day flat but came back from their lows.  The daily charts here look like that they are trying to hold on to the recent lows and I am now thinking about trying the April calls ahead of the Fed.  Potentially GDX or ABX.  This is something that I will consider over the weekend.  There will not be a lot of money in this trade if I attempt it either.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Only a week to go in the March option cycle.  Who knows, I might even try a trade in the SPY next week.  But I doubt it.  The short term technicals for the major stock indices remain oversold despite the bounce that we saw yesterday.  Short term downtrend lines remain in place as well.  The summation index continues lower as well.  So their isn't a lot of positives on a technical basis at the moment.  That said, the market will go where it wants.  Next week will be a key.  We are either going to hang in here and turn around to the upside or things will get pretty ugly to the downside.  I think that GE will follow whatever happens.  As for gold and the gold shares, they may hold up here or not.  If they don't, the decline will really gain steam because the level we are at now is the last remaining support.  I'm going to take a good hard look at things here over the weekend.  Nobody wants gold and the gold shares here and that is usually a good time to take a chance.  But we are still in the month of March and that usually isn't positive for gold.  Plenty to consider in the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.   

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