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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Three one hundred plus point gains in a row for the Dow so far this week.  Today the most watched index rose 135 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  I certainly don't know where this rally is coming from but you must respect the price action.  The Dow was much stronger than the overall market, so a pause in the run up is to be expected.  I did place an order for the October OEX puts but it wasn't filled.  Overbought on both a short and medium term basis now.  However it looks like markets around the globe are breaking out and in rally mode.  The summation index continues to move higher with conviction.  I still may try the October OEX puts though.  I left in an open order but we closed on the high of the session so I may have to cancel that overnight.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Short term overbought here now but it looks like we will probably stay that way.  Gold was barely changed for the session despite a drop in the US dollar.  That usually isn't bullish moving forward for the precious metal.  The XAU rose 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains today.  The volume was nothing special.  It's been a tough 3 weeks for the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are still profitable though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Could it be that there will be no taper from the Fed in a week?  Why would we be getting such a huge move in the stock indices now?  Always questions in the game.  We'll simply stick with the technicals and we're overbought and staying there.  There is nothing that says we can't go higher still.  But the TRIN is very overbought and the CBOE call/put ratio is pretty high.  I'll probably try the OEX puts tomorrow but it may not be the proper trade.  I think that perhaps a strong beginning of September will give way to a weak second half of September.  That's my guess at the moment.  Gold needs to hold $1350.  That is all we need to know there for now.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow overnight and go from there. 

1 comment:

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