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Wednesday, September 04, 2013

To the upside today as the Dow gained 96 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  Todays action should turn the summation index around to the upside.  So have we dodged the collapse through the summation index zero line here?  Maybe.  But we are still in close proximity to the zero line, unless a rally starts from here.  But I will say todays price movement to the upside was impressive for the bulls given yesterdays give back of the opening rally.  Perhaps we have gotten all the sellers out of the way.  That's just a guess.  I'm still considering the September OEX puts.  GE was up 1/8, volume was lighter than yesterday.  The September 23 calls are still cheap here if we do see some upside.  Still short term oversold.  Gold gave back yesterdays gains and the futures were off over 20 bucks.  This despite weakness in the US dollar.  The XAU held up though and was flat on the session.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  So perhaps gold will take a much needed rest here.  Perhaps sideways is the most I can hope for near term.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect Thursday to be a waiting game on the employment report.  There is still a downtrend line and the 50 day moving average in the S&P 500 as resistance.  They come in at about the 1663 level.  That would be the next logical place to get short if so inclined.  But if we start to see the McClellan oscillator move to the +100 level or more, I would say the decline is over.  My scenario of a collapse would be wrong.  The jury is still out though.  Sometimes a strong beginning to September leads to a weak second half of September.  If that is the case the October OEX puts will be in play.  Let's first see if we get to 1663 on the S&P 500 and what happens when we do.  Gold did not rise with weakness in the US dollar today and that isn't bullish.  I'm thinking that we won't drop that much here considering the question marks involving Syria.  I could be wrong.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  Gold, like the stock indices, will go where it wants.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

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