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Monday, September 16, 2013

A pop to the upside to start off expiration week as the Dow gained 118 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This was a headline driven move for the major indices.  The US has agreed not to bomb Syria for the time being and Larry Summers withdrew from the running for the next head of the Fed.  Technically, the summation index remains to the upside and the stock market remains overbought.  I was early on the October OEX puts and my position is now showing a loss.  Today looks like it was the preferred purchase time.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was average.  Getting above $24.25 should lead to higher prices here if it occurs.  Gold was up $9 on the futures after last weeks nasty sell off.  The precious metal fell in the aftermarket though.  The US dollar dropped today and it didn't help gold that much when it should have.  The XAU lost 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  ABX was helped along by a positive article in Barrons over the weekend.  The gold shares remain oversold and right at their up trend lines from July.  Gold itself has broken that line, perhaps the gold shares can hold up here but I certainly don't know.  If they do it may be a spot to try the calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Wednesdays Fed announcement and the market reaction to it is what we are waiting for at this point.  I would expect tomorrow to be a wait and see affair.  I'm looking for a sell the news event but that's a guess as usual.  The market goes where it wants.  The small stocks did not lead the way up today.  I'm still a believer that the second half of September will be weaker for the stock indexes.  Gold has rolled over and is trying to hold at its 50 day moving average.  The Fed announcement will probably influence the price of gold as well.  In which direction is the question.  I'm on the sidelines there for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets and take it from there.
   

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