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Monday, September 09, 2013

A Monday rally as the Dow soared 140 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index will now be solidly heading higher.  The triple Qs and the COMPQ have broken to new recovery highs.  It is hard to be bearish with the developments of today.  It looks like the averages have dodged a bullet for now.  Short term overbought but we could stay that way.  Perhaps it will be the scenario of strong beginning for September, weak end of the month.  That's a guess to be sure.  I have resistance for the S&P 500 at 1680 and I may try the October OEX puts when and if we get there.  However the market is saying that it wants to go higher here and I should listen to that.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light.  It looks as though a short term bottom is in place here.  A case could be made for a rally here as we have been dropping for 2 months.  Gold was flat on the futures despite a weaker US dollar.  That isn't bullish for gold as we should have seen some sort of rally today.  But sideways is better than down for the holders of calls.  The XAU fell around 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  I'm still holding my October ABX calls while waiting for the next move higher.  Short term oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's possible that we are starting the next leg up for the stock indices.  Technically it certainly appears that way.  However I would like to see what happens when we get to the 1680 level on the S&P 500 first.  That could occur tomorrow if we see some decent follow through to todays price action.  My call for a market collapse appears to be wrong for now.  Gold is still above its rising trend line from July.  As long as we are above that line the trend remains up despite the lack of positive action lately.  I'd expect some buying in the precious metal if things heat up in Sryia.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll keep an eye on the developments overnight and take it from there. 

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