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Friday, September 06, 2013

Well we certainly had some volatility today as the Dow moved back and forth throughout the session.  We were down well over 100 at one point and back up over 50 at another.  The market is simply trying to make up its mind here.  The Dow finished the day with a loss of 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The employment report was a bit weaker than expected.  Now that we've gotten that out of the way, the question is what's next?  The stock indices are trying to rally here but it hasn't been much.  I would still be cautious because if we do roll over here it won't be pretty.  Still hovering around the zero line in the summation index.  I might go out to the October OEX puts.  As usual there are plenty of questions in the market.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  I was looking at the September $23 calls here and still am.  But I will most likely concentrate on the overall stock market.  Gold came back a bit on the weaker jobs number and weaker US dollar.  The precious metal futures were up around $15.  The XAU rose 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  The short term technicals are oversold for the gold shares.  I suppose on the next run up to overbought I'll have to dump my October ABX calls.  That's the idea at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes had reluctant gains for the week.  I really wish that I had some type of conviction for a trade here with two weeks to go in the option cycle but I don't.  It looked like we were going to fall apart today at one point but the market came back.  A week and a half until the Fed.  So do we bide our time until then?  It's a possibility but we have the Syria question to deal with as well.  Not sure on the exact timing of that.  As usual the trading is never easy.  Gold and the gold shares were slightly down for the week.  It would no doubt be a plus to see some upside next week but we are medium term overbought.  There is an outside chance that the weekly gold share charts are forming a reverse head and shoulders pattern.  If that turns out to be the case, we would see some huge gains in the gold shares in the coming weeks.  Hasn't happened yet and it may not.  I'll check out everything over the weekend and try to come up with some type of game plan moving forward.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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