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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

It was a blast off to the upside today on the Fed as the Dow gained 147 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  The Fed did nothing today and that was unexpected.  We're at new highs for the major indices with no resistance.  The summation index continues to the upside.  We never made it through the zero line and that provided the support that was needed.  My October OEX puts got clobbered and I dumped them for a 70% loss.  My assumptions were wrong.  My interpretation of the charts and upcoming events was way off.  We are very overbought for the stock indexes and simply remain that way.  I had not anticipated that.  With no overhead resistance I suppose anything goes moving forward.  GE climbed 3/8 and the volume was good.  It looks like there is no stopping the rise in stocks at this point.  The weekly technicals for GE have turned up as well.  Gold was a major mover on the day as the futures rose over $50.  The US dollar fell hard.  Finally this inverse relationship got back on track.  The XAU zoomed up 8 1/3.  ABX rose 1 3/4, GG added 2 1/8 and NEM jumped 2 1/3.  Volume was huge here.  I tried to get some October ABX calls but was too slow.  However after such a huge move like today, if there is any weakness in ABX I will be getting some calls here again.  It still appears that the weekly chart inverse head and shoulders pattern here is intact.  Mentally I'm not in a good place.  Everything that I have been thinking lately has been wrong.  I should have listened to the summation index as it continued higher.  That indicator rarely is wrong.  The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the upside after today and I would expect the stock indexes to consolidate but who knows?  The seasonality for a weaker stock market in September is not happening.  However that same seasonality that calls for higher gold prices is back on after today.  The US dollar broke some key support today and that should provide a bullish back drop for gold.  The kind of volume to the upside that we saw today for the gold shares says the big money is coming back to play gold.  I don't like to chase moves but I might have to make an exception this time.  Perhaps I'll just purchase some gold share calls tomorrow.  I'd expect that we'll see upside follow through around the globe tonight.  We'll keep an eye on that and take it from there.         

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