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Thursday, September 05, 2013

A waiting game today as expected.  The Dow rose 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  All eyes will be on the employment report out tomorrow morning.  I could make a case for the market to go either way here.  It is tough to trade with a backdrop like that.  The summation index has barely turned around to the upside.  The stock index technicals have come off of their lows.  I will say that if we do start to head down from here, you can just get short.  Because the indexes will fall apart.  However if we rally tomorrow, that worst case scenario will be off the table for now.  I'm not sure what to expect so I did not put any trades on for the OEX.  GE was flat on the session after being higher.  The technicals here remain oversold.  Gold fell again on another good day for the US dollar.  The precious metal futures were off around another $20.  The XAU was in step with that decline today and fell 3 1/2.  ABX down 1/2, GG shed a buck and NEM lost 1 1/3.  Volume was average.  Probably need to see some weakness in the US dollar tomorrow to stem the negative tide here.  Movement should be based on the jobs numbers.  Getting short term oversold on the gold shares.  We are approaching the up trend line from July in the gold shares.  It is important for the bullish cause that we hold that line.  Time will tell on that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two weeks and a day to go in the September option cycle.  With the most watched economic data release out tomorrow.  I'd like to feel as if I know what is going to happen but I don't.  When in doubt stay out is what I'm doing for now.  That could change tomorrow.  Gold has lost some luster with a strengthening US dollar and a delay in the conflict involving Syria.  We're still in the favorable seasonal time period though.  That's one of the reasons why I continue to hold the October ABX calls.  However most eyes will be on the stock market tomorrow for its reaction to the employment report.  It should make for an interesting day.

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