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Friday, April 20, 2012

We came well off the highs of the day but the Dow managed to close with a gain of 65 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall stock indices were weaker than the Dow.  Basically sideways for a couple of weeks now after the recent decline.  I still think we could go either way here.  The GE earnings came out and the market liked what it saw.  The stock gained 1/4 on good volume but also came off of its highs.  It really wasn't the type of gain that I was looking for though.  I don't have any trades in mind here at the moment.  Gold was up a buck or so on the futures despite a weaker US dollar.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX off 2/3, GG was flat and NEM dropped 1/2.  Volume was light except for ABX which was average.  My ABX calls are now deeply in the red.  We have also now broken down through the recent congestion zone with todays negative action.  It appears that my idea for the gold shares here is wrong.  There are still 4 weeks to go in these options but we would have to turn around a lot in a hurry.  I'm still holding them until we see what happens next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough.  Plenty of economic data out next week so we will have to see how the market reacts to it.  The stock index technicals are still mid-range on the daily charts.  Right now it looks like gold is simply dead money.  The US dollar fell today and gold didn't even move.  The Gold/XAU ratio is deeply in the buy zone again and nothing is happening.  There seems to be absolutely no interest in owning the gold shares.  I built a position in the ABX May calls and it's looking more and more like a loser.  I'll check the charts again over the weekend and get ready for Monday morning.  We could be in a holding pattern until the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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