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Monday, April 09, 2012

A downside start to the week as the Dow fell 130 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. Summation index continues lower but the McClellan oscillator is at an area where a bounce can be expected. We are also short term oversold on the stock index technicals. I think any downside tomorrow can be bought for the short term. Beyond that, who knows? It should be an interesting week. GE dropped 1/3 on light volume with a gap to the downside. Oversold on the short term here as well. Not exactly sure what trade to take here but I'm now leaning towards the April calls. This would be a trade that hinges on the earnings that are due on expiration Friday in 9 trading days. Risky is the key term here. I do not think that I'll be trying the May calls here as previously planned. We'll see. I could change my mind tomorrow. Gold was up about $14 on the futures as the US dollar dropped a bit today. No real interest in gold here it seems to me. The XAU was up 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1/4 on light volume. The gold shares are blown out to the downside and I am considering the May ABX calls here even though my last few trades here haven't worked. The Gold/XAU ratio is off the charts and in the past that has been a reliable buy signal. I'm a believer that you have to buy things when nobody else wants them and that is certainly the case with gold at the moment. I could be wrong and often am but I still think this is a trade that I'm going to put on this week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. Haven't really seen 4 days in a row to the downside for stock since last year. Is it the beginning of something longer to the downside or is it time to buy? Everyone is looking for the answer to that question. I do expect a bounce in the next couple of days. It's what happens after that to keep an eye on. Gold is going nowhere and the gold shares are in a funk. I still think that going out to the May calls there has a chance to work. We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays negative US stock market action and go from there.

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