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Wednesday, April 04, 2012

It looks like perhaps we're in store for an extended sell-off as the Dow fell 124 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. We did finish off of the lows but the action was decidedly negative. Yesterday we were down but did finish well off the lows. However today did not follow through to the upside. The summation index continues lower. We would have to have the stock indexes hold right where they are for the action to remain sideways. Doesn't feel like it. GE was down 1/4 on average volume. The May calls have gotten cheaper and may even get cheaper still. I will probably try this trade when the technicals get oversold. We're almost there. Gold continued lower, falling over $50 on the futures due to the Fed fallout from yesterday. The dollar also gained more ground today. The XAU dropped 6 1/3. ABX down 1 2/3, GG fell 2 3/8 and NEM off 1 7/8. Volume was heavy and it could have been a downside blow-off. Or not. GLD broke the near term support at 158. I will have to rethink my overall scenario for gold and the gold shares going forward. Obviously my thoughts here have been bullish but that has been wrong. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indices are perhaps on the verge of an extended decline. That's a guess as usual. Some of the daily charts have pulled back to their 50 day moving averages. It will be telling if they hold or not. Gold is falling apart here and I don't think I'm ready to step in just yet. One trading day left in the week and the employment report coming out on the holiday. Things seem a bit more interesting than usual.

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