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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

The market got clobbered today as the Dow fell 213 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. Oversold and staying there. That hasn't happened for a while and it certainly isn't bullish. The McClellan oscillator is now even more oversold than yesterday and a bounce is imminent. But it is probably going to be nothing more than that. Something has changed here and I don't know what. We've broken the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily charts and that is another negative. Earnings are starting to come out and perhaps the market knows they won't measure up. GE fell about 1/2 on good volume. I bought some April GE calls this morning and they are firmly in the red. This is a trade that probably isn't going to work. I don't think that I'll be waiting for the earnings report next Friday. If we bounce I will probably simply take the loss. I do not want to be wrapped up in this trade for long. Gold had a good day on the flight to safety. The precious metal gained another $15 on the futures. The US dollar didn't do much today. The XAU was higher by 1 1/8. ABX up 1/2, GG rose 3/8 and NEM led the way with a gain of a buck. Volume was good as money moved into the gold shares. The gold shares should be the next trade. Going out to May is the idea here. I'm leaving in an open order for some May ABX calls. The Fed is out with some words tomorrow and perhaps that will lower the price of the gold shares. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough again. The stock indexes are practically in free fall. I'm not sure what is going on. Taking on the GE trade today was a mistake. I'll need to exit with any rebound there. I'm going to try the gold share calls again. It hasn't worked lately. We'll probably see some weakness in the foreign markets but I expect some type of rebound at some point tomorrow in the US. That's a guess as usual. It is probably a time to be careful as volatility has returned.

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