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Friday, April 13, 2012

Back to the downside today as the Dow closed the week with a loss of 137 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We got an oversold bounce and it now looks like we'll head back to test the recent lows early next week. We are still more to the oversold side on the daily stock index charts. The summation index continues lower. I'd like to think that I have an idea of which way we are going but I don't. I will probably look for a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator next week and perhaps trade that. However it will be option expiration week. That usually brings with it an upward bias but with the recent volatility, anything goes. GE was off 3/8 on light volume. Earnings out in a week and I'm most likely not going to trade this issue in the near term. I was fortunate to get out of the GE trade that I did this week without a loss. The weekly technicals have rolled over to the downside here. Gold fell $20 on the futures today as the US dollar had a good day to end the week. The XAU fell 2 3/4. ABX off 5/8, GG dropped 1/3 and NEM lost 7/8. Volume was light. I bought some ABX May calls this morning. I'm a believer in this trade. The gold shares are oversold both short and medium term. Going out to May gives this trade plenty of time to work. I might even add to the position next week. Todays gain in the US dollar could be a problem for golds bullish case and it will have to be kept an eye on. As usual my idea here could be completely wrong as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept better for a change. Volatility has returned to the stock market for whatever reasons. There may be something going on here that we will only find out about later. Trading could be even trickier than usual. I'm trying the gold share calls again and that hasn't really worked well for me so far this year. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and take it from there. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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