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Thursday, August 14, 2008

The up trend line is holding for now as the Dow gained 83 points on what looks like lighter volume. Advance/declines were positive. Expiration tomorrow. Still in an uptrend as the news today was clearly negative but we went higher anyway. Summation index continues to the upside. I'm thinking things could slow down a bit beginning next week but it hasn't happened yet this summer. Gold was back down over $15 today. The XAU lost 6 1/2. ABX and NEM lost around 1 1/2, while GG dropped over 2. Volume was good but not as much as on the rise yesterday. I'm putting in an overnight order for GG calls again. I really think we are at the moment of truth for gold longer term here. We either hold up and continue the multi-year uptrend or we break down and the game has changed. There is a possibility that the game has changed with a macro shift into the US dollar. We are at a multi-year weekly downtrend line in the dollar index. If we break through on good volume, that will be the signal that things have changed. It could happen. GE gained 1/4 on light volume. Mentally I feel OK, slept good enough. Tomorrow could be an interesting day as well. I'm thinking that the gold shares could continue to fall off here and retest the earlier week lows. We'll see. They could also blow out to the downside and signal a continuation to much lower levels. Time will tell. I'm still going to wait for the OEX to get to 620 before I attempt anything there. On to expiration.

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