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Monday, August 04, 2008

Monday in the summer as the Dow lost 42 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Fed meeting tomorrow. Everyone expects no change in rates. No good signal one way or the other for the OEX. I'm on the sidelines. Gold dropped another $15. The XAU fell over 7 1/2 points. It has been an incredible straight fall down for the gold shares. They keep getting more oversold. ABX, GG and NEM all down, with the latter two dropping over a point apiece. At some point there will be a snap back rally. These shares are not going to go to zero. I am amazed that they have fallen this much in such a short period of time. But I'm not going to try and guess what will happen. I'm still licking my wounds from the last attempts at trying to call a bottom here. GE lost a touch on light volume. Nothing doing there for now. Mentally I'm doing OK. Less than 2 weeks left for the August option cycle. We should get some movement off the Fed statement tomorrow. Perhaps if we continue to see weakness into the middle of the week I'll get some OEX calls for expiration week. Summation index continues to the upside, which supports the long side. So we'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow.

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