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Monday, August 11, 2008

More room on the upside for Monday as the Dow gained 48 points. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was good. The positive expiration bias seem to be in effect for now. My thinking remains that the OEX could get to 620 before it stalls. We're around 605 at the moment. Money continues to flow out of other instruments and into stocks. The summation index continues higher also. Gold is in free fall. It dropped $35 today as the dollar remains strong. The XAU fell almost 8 points. ABX and NEM lost over 2 points each and GG shed another buck. Volume was extremely heavy again. Oversold and staying there. I did put in a couple of buy orders for calls but they were not filled. Trying to catch a falling knife here? Probably. You really don't know when the carnage in gold will end. However the dollar has reached the point I expected resistance to come in. I'm going out to October on the calls. The gold indices have reached their 200 day moving averages on a weekly basis. Yes they could just blow right through them but I expect some type of attempt at support to surface here considering how oversold we are. But I could be wrong. It might just be an utter collapse. Gold is following oil and we are just about at the up trend line in oil from months ago as well. Support there should come in at 110 and we are around 115. I will check things again overnight and perhaps leave in some overnight orders. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. Not in a hurry to make a trade but I think there's an opportunity here. My guess is the overall market should remain positive for the beginning of the week at least. However I'm looking at the gold shares again. I think going out an extra month on the options will work to my benefit. The media is hyping how strong the dollar is all of a sudden and that usually is at least good for a move in the opposite direction. Dollar strength has helped stocks as money looks to invest in US assets of late. It's also taken gold and the gold shares down in a straight line. That won't last forever, will it?

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