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Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Finally an up day and a big one at that. The Dow gained 135 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. But what was it? A one day oversold bounce or is this the start of a rally that I have been looking for? Could we have just set the low for the year, which would fit in with the year ending in 5 theory? Only time will tell. You really can't get too excited with one days action. Especially the way the market has behaved recently. But perhaps we will turn around at the summation zero line and not go through it. There is still the employment report to get through on Friday. GE was up around 60 cents and there is a bid on the April calls I own again. I should probably just take the loss there. The odds do not favor that trade working. But something is making me hold it for now. The technicals are not near overbought yet. Then again it could reverse tomorrow. The XAU showed some life and was up over a point. NEM was a big gainer, while ABX did not move at all. Perhaps the relative strength here is changing. I am keeping an eye on it but have no trades planned at this time. The dollar was weaker today. We might be looking at a short term top in the dollar. I am not sure. The longer term trend lines in gold are holding up here. However the volume wasn't all that strong. Like I said, I'll keep an eye on it. But for now I've gotta pay attention to the GE trade. I also need to look at the year ending in 5 patterns from the past decades to get an idea where we might go from here. It is a difficult game and not one where you can be lazy. Discipline is also needed practically all the time. It's not for everybody.

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