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Friday, March 11, 2005

Dow down 77 points on Friday to close the week. The volume was lighter than usual and the advance/declines were negative. Today we broke some up trendlines. It's not a good sign. That said, we are oversold and a bounce is due. I almost bought some OEX calls today and might in the beginning of next week. The trade number came out but the dollar did not decline that much. Gold was up over $3 but the XAU barely moved. When that happens we are usually due for a pause in gold. ABX was up around a quarter but NEM hardly moved. It gets tricky now for these issues but I still believe in the uptrend. I am trying to be patient and wait for a pullback below 100 on the XAU to get long again. I might also try a very short term trade in gold next week, which happens to be expiration week. The better idea may be to go out to April on the calls. As for the OEX, the summation index has rolled over and any purchase of calls must have a tight stop-loss order. I probably should just wait for an opening to short it. I haven't made up my mind. When I don't have a position, I really want one because I love to play the game. But that is an issue I must fight when there is no clear signal or reason to enter the market. I'll check things over the weekend and then determine a strategy for the next week and beyond.

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