The Dow lost 37 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive though as we wait for tomorrows employment report. No idea what that will bring. GE was down a few cents. The bid has again disappeared from the April calls I own. Perhaps it will return. Last day of the 1st quarter today also. I would expect some buying with the beginning of the new month and new quarter tomorrow, unless the employment report is a big surprise. Gold was up over a buck today and the gold shares gapped higher. However they could not hold the gains but were still up on the day. The dollar was again lower. The interest seems to have left this market for now. I hope to be there when it returns. Oil was up over a buck and a half and considering that the market held up pretty good. We shall see about the year ending in 5 theory here very soon, within the next week. If this low holds than there is a chance for profits on the May GE calls. If it doesn't hold we are probably in for some real trouble. But first let's get through tomorrow.

Finally an up day and a big one at that. The Dow gained 135 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. But what was it? A one day oversold bounce or is this the start of a rally that I have been looking for? Could we have just set the low for the year, which would fit in with the year ending in 5 theory? Only time will tell. You really can't get too excited with one days action. Especially the way the market has behaved recently. But perhaps we will turn around at the summation zero line and not go through it. There is still the employment report to get through on Friday. GE was up around 60 cents and there is a bid on the April calls I own again. I should probably just take the loss there. The odds do not favor that trade working. But something is making me hold it for now. The technicals are not near overbought yet. Then again it could reverse tomorrow. The XAU showed some life and was up over a point. NEM was a big gainer, while ABX did not move at all. Perhaps the relative strength here is changing. I am keeping an eye on it but have no trades planned at this time. The dollar was weaker today. We might be looking at a short term top in the dollar. I am not sure. The longer term trend lines in gold are holding up here. However the volume wasn't all that strong. Like I said, I'll keep an eye on it. But for now I've gotta pay attention to the GE trade. I also need to look at the year ending in 5 patterns from the past decades to get an idea where we might go from here. It is a difficult game and not one where you can be lazy. Discipline is also needed practically all the time. It's not for everybody.

The market just will not go up. I didn't have time to post yesterday but the market was up but could not hold its gains. Today the Dow was down 80 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. A bounce has been due and overdue. When it can't bounce, and is nearing the zero line on the summation index, we could actually crash. I mean completely fall apart. This is the scenario at this time. My GE trades will not work. I tried to sell the April calls but with GE down 50 cents today there is no bid. It could be a total loss. This trade will not work, it is a loser. Perhaps if the bounce that never comes happens, I can cut the loss. Sometimes you just get it wrong and that is the case here. The indicators just stayed oversold and that doesn't usually happen. The year ending in 5 looks like it is all wet. Oh well. Gold didn't move much today and the dollar was weaker. Again, confusing action. The gold shares continue to sell off. This is one of those rare times when nothing seems to be working properly. I should be flat and just in cash if I had any brains. But part of me wants to believe that a rally is coming as March ends and that we are at the lows of the year. But it just doesn't look good. All signs are pointing down and there is not much I can do about it. Employment number on Friday and that could really send us over the edge. It's all a guess at this point.

An off Friday. I did check my past McClellan oscillator readings. Previously when the oscillator got into the -300 level there were good rallies from that area. We got there on Wednesday. This was one of the reasons for taking on the GE trades. Also in the year ending in 5 theory, the lows for the year were always set in the 1st quarter, when there was a down start to the year as was the case this year. So I would expect some type of rally attempt next week even though I am very wary of these trades. I want to get out of the April GE trade as soon as possible. At least that's the thinking at this point. It could all change next week.

The market just will not go up. Down another 13 points on the Dow with light volume for a pre-holiday weekend. Advance/declines were positive but at one point we were up 60 points. Now I'm worried. We could go into crash mode. I hope I'm wrong. GE announced higher guidance and could only gain a quarter. The April calls look like they're not going to work. I'll give it another week or so but it isn't looking good. The year ending in 5 theory will be tested next week. We'll see what happens. Gold barely moved but the XAU lost around another point. It was a tough 4 days for the gold stocks. We shall see if that long term trendline holds up but it isn't looking good. I might try something there though. Probably shouldn't but a bounce at least, right? Except I've been looking for a bounce in the market and that hasn't happened either. Well there is a long weekend now. A chance to regroup and rethink just exactly what I've been doing. I'm playing golf on Monday also, so the post could be late or not at all. It looks like Monday will be another down day based on todays action. Who knows? Time for some rest...

A very interesting market. The Dow was down again, this time by 15 points. Volume was extremely heavy again at over 2 billion shares. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. An oil refinery in Texas blew up today. Can things get any worse? Who would be buying calls in this atmosphere? Me, I guess. I purchased some more GE calls, this time going out to May. I really think that the decline is over right around here. The McClellan oscillator will hit over a minus 300 reading today. This is rare. It defines an extremely oversold market. I doubt we can go much lower here short term. Any bounce and I will probably get out of the GE April calls. I don't know if that trade is going to work. I'd like to get some OEX calls here short term if I had the guts. But I guess I have enough on my mind with GE. Gold was down 5 bucks and all the gold shares got slammed again on heavy volume. The major players are exiting gold here and you just can't fight that. The dollar was higher again and I will wait for it to get to 85 before considering gold again. Unless we break the major gold uptrend lines and then I will simply stay away. This has been a pretty intense week so far and thankfully it will end tomorrow. Perhaps will leave an overnight trade in the OEX.

Down again. The Dow lost 95 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative again. I don't know what to say. I thought at least a bounce was due. It hasn't come. That makes me worry. Perhaps we are going to freefall. We broke an important weekly uptrend line today. We will have to see where the week ends. The Fed rose another quarter and said it was worried about inflation. That did it. GE lost fifty cents and the calls I have didn't move because they are so far out of the money. Perhaps this is a loser, it sure looks and feels that way. I do believe in the year ending in 5 theory as I explained earlier today. But we will have to turn it around soon. Gold did not move during the regular session but dropped after the Fed announcement. We are right at the long term uptrend line. It doesn't look like it will hold. That will change my thinking on a lot of things. But it hasn't happened yet. Interesting times. I'd like to have the guts to step up and buy some gold calls here but I'll wait until a base is built. Hopefully. Only 2 days left this week and I see no reason to buy stocks. We could be in major trouble here. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

I did not get a chance to post yesterday as I left a half hour early to play some golf. We were down about 65 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The McClellan oscillator is way oversold and I purchased some GE calls for April. They are far out of the money. I am relying on the fact that we should start to at least bounce here. I also am counting on the year ending in 5 theory which reaches its low for the year in the first quarter and then has a pretty good rise off of that. My guess is we are at that point here. Gold lost over $8 and the dollar was stronger. All the gold shares lost ground. However we are approaching an uptrend line for gold itself and I might possibly get long when we reach that line. It's risky but I think it could work. I also might stay patient and wait for May on gold. Not sure yet. The Fed announces today in about an hour or so. I'll be back later. Every once in a while you've got to get out and clear your head to come back fresh in this game. That is what I tried to do yesterday.

The Dow lost 3 points on an expiration heavy volume Friday. We were down a lot more earlier. Advance/declines were negative. We will bounce on Monday or Tuesday. We have to. Very oversold right here. I am also getting some signs that we could be approaching a major bottom. The indicators are looking that way even though there is a lot of negative talk around. Gold was up just a little today but the XAU was down a point. NEM was actually up and ABX dropped which is a switch from the usual activity. I'm not sure how much of todays action was expiration related for the gold shares. The dollar was higher again and we are near a downtrend line, short term. Inflation reports and the Fed next week, so although it is a short week it could be an important one. I'd like to get long gold again but not sure. However I will probably do something if I deem an opportunity is at hand. Sometimes the month before taxes on April 15th just moves sideways. I've seen it before in the past. So perhaps patience is a necessity here. Tough game to play. Also the option premiums will be higher due to the time remaining. So I will try and be careful. I will check things over the weekend and get back here next week. I'm playing golf Monday so the posting will be later than usual.

The Dow was down 6 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market could not make up its mind which way to go today. The overall market was better than the Dow. We need a bounce because we are way oversold. If we don't get a decent bounce, I would be very worried about a collapse. That's just a guess but we need some upside soon in my opinion. Gold lost $5 today but the gold shares hung in there. The XAU was up fractionally. When something like this happens it is usually a good sign for the gold stocks. Nobody wants to sell. I do not have a good buy signal here but I do want to get long ABX or NEM. I almost did today for a one day play but thankfully did not. I will roll into April if an opportunity presents itself. I'm trying to stay patient but it might move up without me. Hopefully not. It is a tough call. ABX really looks like it needs to back off before a long play can be started. The indicators are not where they were for the last trade, which I was very confident about. The dollar was higher today which again makes the action in the gold shares interesting. Perhaps it is just an expiration related event. That's what makes it difficult. I don't know if there is an expectation of higher prices which is causing players not to sell or if it is just an expiration week thing. Staying out for now but do want back in. No plays on the OEX here, although I would have liked to have the guts to get some calls. Maybe next week but the time factor will be in play. More tomorrow.

The Dow was down 6 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market could not make up its mind which way to go today. The overall market was better than the Dow. We need a bounce because we are way oversold. If we don't get a decent bounce, I would be very worried about a collapse. That's just a guess but we need some upside soon in my opinion. Gold lost $5 today but the gold shares hung in there. The XAU was up fractionally. When something like this happens it is usually a good sign for the gold stocks. Nobody wants to sell. I do not have a good buy signal here but I do want to get long ABX or NEM. I almost did today for a one day play but thankfully did not. I will roll into April if an opportunity presents itself. I'm trying to stay patient but it might move up without me. Hopefully not. It is a tough call. ABX really looks like it needs to back off before a long play can be started. The indicators are not where they were for the last trade, which I was very confident about. The dollar was higher today which again makes the action in the gold shares interesting. Perhaps it is just an expiration related event. That's what makes it difficult. I don't know if there is an expectation of higher prices which is causing players not to sell or if it is just an expiration week thing. Staying out for now but do want back in. No plays on the OEX here, although I would have liked to have the guts to get some calls. Maybe next week but the time factor will be in play. More tomorrow.

I'm back at this lame site because the one I just signed up for doesn't even have spellcheck. I'll continue to search when I can find the time. The Dow lost over 100 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Important uptrendlines have been broken and the trend is down. That said, we are way oversold here and a bounce is to be expected. I've been saying that for awhile but it will happen in the next 2 days before expiration. Gold was up $3 today and the XAU was up almost a point. Volume was light though and the news today should have spawned a decent gold share rally. I've canceled whatever open orders I had for NEM calls. NEM was actually down today. ABX continues to show relative strength but the technicals are all overbought. The dollar was down today. My thinking at this point is to hopefully sit tight for the rest of this week and perhaps get long gold next week. Next week is a shortened holiday week. I expect volume to be light. There are some inflation reports coming out though. I still think the trend is up for gold but we need a pause here. I could be wrong and often have been. Just trying to stay disciplined at this time. Patience is key but it's hard to do.

Just lost my blog again. Tired of it. Looking for a new site.

The Dow lost 55 points on average volume today. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. I again wanted to purchase some OEX calls today. We are oversold. But the market closed on its low today and the summation index continues downward. I am lucky I didn't but any calls but I feel we are due for a bounce. I am going to stay out though. 3 days until expiration. Gold didn't move much and neither did the gold shares. I canceled the March order for NEM calls and left in the April one. But I might cancel that one too, depending on where we go from here. I would still like to perhaps take a chance on an expiration play here. Not sure and it would probably be better to just go on out to April at this point. But I'm not ruling anything out. The dollar was slightly higher today. The current account deficit report for the 4th quarter comes out tomorrow. I think it will be a dollar mover but it is too late now and the gold options remained pricey. Getting back to the overall market, I think we broke the uptrend line today and that is not a positive. I might be able to get short if we have a snapback to that line. But some of the signals are mixed. I'm on the sidelines for now, trying to remain disciplined and patient.

Late post today as the Dow was down 30 points. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was Monday light. I wanted to get some calls today, as we are right at an uptrend line. But I didn't. The summation index is still pointing down. But put buying has really increased here, which leads me to believe the market will bounce here. Gold was down $5. The XAU sold off early but came back to be down only a point. NEM and ABX came back as well but both posted losses. The dollar was stronger. I have an order for some NEM calls for March and April. Not sure about these. I will probably cancel the March order tomorrow, there are only 4 days left. The stochastic has rolled over. Perhaps should wait on the April calls also. I'm not sure but the weekly charts still have more room so I'm thinking this is just a pause in the uptrend. Again, I'm not sure. The prudent thing to do here would be to just sit it out this week. I think that is the proper strategy. Maybe I will. Account deficit number is out on Wednesday and could move the dollar. I think Greenspan talks sometime this week also. Kinda tired now. More tomorrow.

Dow down 77 points on Friday to close the week. The volume was lighter than usual and the advance/declines were negative. Today we broke some up trendlines. It's not a good sign. That said, we are oversold and a bounce is due. I almost bought some OEX calls today and might in the beginning of next week. The trade number came out but the dollar did not decline that much. Gold was up over $3 but the XAU barely moved. When that happens we are usually due for a pause in gold. ABX was up around a quarter but NEM hardly moved. It gets tricky now for these issues but I still believe in the uptrend. I am trying to be patient and wait for a pullback below 100 on the XAU to get long again. I might also try a very short term trade in gold next week, which happens to be expiration week. The better idea may be to go out to April on the calls. As for the OEX, the summation index has rolled over and any purchase of calls must have a tight stop-loss order. I probably should just wait for an opening to short it. I haven't made up my mind. When I don't have a position, I really want one because I love to play the game. But that is an issue I must fight when there is no clear signal or reason to enter the market. I'll check things over the weekend and then determine a strategy for the next week and beyond.

Seems like this site is having problems again. The Dow was up 45 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative though. I guess I am going to look to short it here soon. Summation index pointing down. Gold did not move today but the XAU was down over a point. I was stopped out this morning on my NEM calls. I knew I should have just sold them yesterday. I still am having trouble on the exiting of positions. My greed needs to be worked on. Although the gain was over 100% the entry and the exit were both terrible. I chased it going in and I held too long getting out. You cannot be happy with actions like that. More often than not you will lose money. I now have no positions but I will be looking to get long gold again, perhaps a quick trade for next week. The dollar didn't do much today ahead of tomorrows trade number. I will perhaps remain flat over the weekend. My mood is not a good one at this point and I really need to keep my emotions in check. There are still opportunities to be taken advantage of. I'd like to see gold back off here a bit but you never know. Hopefully this thing will post.

The Dow got clocked today, down over 105 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. Haven't seen action like that in a while. This will turn the summation index down and a sell signal is in place. It didn't last too long the last time this happened. We'll see what happens this time. Oil was over $55 for a while and bonds got a mention for selling off. The dollar was weaker today but gold did not move. The XAU was up half a point and NEM rose around a quarter. But ABX, which has been leading, dropped and formed a doji on the daily charts. I think this part of the move could be over. The NEM calls are still in the black and I moved up the stop-loss order. But I am getting the feeling that I should have dumped them today. The trade number looms large on Friday. But with everyone focused on it, I fear it could be a non event. The ABX action concerns me. Looking back buying some puts on the OEX on Friday would have been a good move. There was a sell signal on one of my indicators. Perhaps I was spending too much time on gold, which probably was the case. Trading is a tough game. I am still, after all these years, working on my game. There are no easy answers. Hard work is what it takes and there is always room for improvement.

The Dow was down around 25 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative, suggesting more weakness than the Dow shows. There is support on the OEX around 580-581 and we closed at 582 and change. Now I can't say for sure which way we are going to go here. Most indicators are overbought but we all know that they can stay that way for awhile. Gold was up around $5 today. ABX and NEM were both up pretty good on heavy volume. My NEM calls are in the black. I am trying not to look back at the ABX calls that I sold last week but of course I must. Sure they are worth more now but at the time it looked like selling was the right thing to do. In hindsight, I probably should have held on to the April call since they had plenty of time left on them. I'll try and remember that for the next time. The dollar fell and is at support of 82. It should hold on here but there are no guarantees. The trade number on Friday will be a mover one way or the other. I'll probably hold on until then but the media is already talking about it so it might be a sell the news event. Gold is also $10 away from the resistance at $450. I we somehow can break through there, more money can be made on the long side of gold. I think we will get through there but I don't know when. For now it is a matter of holding on and paying attention. Gold and the gold shares are overbought here. Always decisions must be weighed and made. Making or losing money is secondary to trading properly and making the right decisions. That may not sound right but I really think it is. Trade well and the rewards will be there. Concentrate on the trading and the profits will take care of themselves.

This blog site continues to disappoint. If for some reason this does not get posted, I am moving. The Dow lost 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. The market was higher earlier in the day but could not hold on. Perhaps we are due for a rest. I am not sure. Gold was up fractionally but the XAU sold off about a point. We have been turned back at resistance, which is 100 for this index. ABX and NEM were down. It feels like gold is about to roll over. My NEM calls are right back to where I purchased them. The stop-loss is still in place and I think this trade will be a loser. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like the stochastic is about to head down. The is a negative divergence on the RSI with ABX also. If however, we can get through 100 on the XAU, NEM will follow and the calls will be profitable. I'm not sure that will happen though. The dollar was slightly higher today. Weekly trend is still down. Trade number is out on Friday and that seems a long way away today. I don't know if the calls will hold up that long. I don't have any other trades on the horizon and need to do some research to find some new ideas. The COMPQ had a good day today and has been lagging recently. Perhaps it will get moving up again and I could look for something there. But my last trade with INTC was a loser, so I am hesitant to test those waters again. Not much else for today, but gold needs to pick it up here or else.

Rally round the employment report. Dow up over 100 points to new highs for the year. Advance/declines over 3 to 1 positive and good volume again. Looks like the year ending in 5 pattern could have legs. Long way to go though. No OEX positions. Gold was up $4 as the dollar weakened even with a good jobs report. Confusing but we shall just listen to the market. The XAU was up over 2 and 1/2 points and is again right at the resistance of 100. Volume wasn't spectacular for the gold shares. ABX continues to outperform and has broken above $25. In hindsight of course I would still like to be a holder of those calls I had. But at the time, I had to take the profit. The NEM calls I have are slightly in the black. And sure, I could have gotten some more cheaper yesterday. I'll hold them for now but I can't say I'm excited about them. The summation index should be pointing to the upside again. We aren't near overbought yet, so 11000 could be in the cards for the Dow. It is the weekend and I will try and take a break and rethink this NEM position. I've got to try and come up with some type of gameplan for the next 2 weeks. I can't say I'm as bullish as I was a few weeks ago. My thoughts are scattered at this point.

For whatever reason yesterdays blog did not post. This site is quite disappointing at times. Needless to say yesterdays post was important. I now have a small position in NEM March calls. I chased an intraday move and I think this trade is a loser. NEM was down over a half today with the XAU down over a point. Gold lost more than $2. ABX is showing good relative strength here and if anything, that was the issue to trade on the long side. Today the Dow was up over 20 points on positive advance/declines. Volume was strong again, which is a good sign. Oil was up around $54 and the dollar was slightly stronger. The employment report is out tomorrow and it should be a market mover. Which way is anybodies guess. I do not have a clear signal on the OEX here so no trades there for now. The XAU will have to have a nice up day tomorrow or the trend will have changed I believe. My stop loss order is in but I'm hoping this thing will turn around. Needless to say I could have gotten the NEM calls cheaper if I hadn't been so stupid. It's a humbling game and one that doesn't reward impatience. As always I am working on my trading skills for there is a lot of work there to be done. I will be looking for a different blogging site after yesterdays lost post.

Up over 60 points today on good volume. Advance /declines solidly positive. It has the looks of wanting to break to new yearly highs. We shall see. I'll try not to short it here. Greenspan is speaking somewhere tomorrow and the market may key on that. Don't know. Gold was down over $3 today and the XAU lost over 2 points. I suppose a short term top is in place, perhaps even a significant one. But I'm sticking with the short term scenario unless the dollar really starts to rally. I've got support at 95 for the XAU and 24 for ABX. ABX lost over half a point today. The calls I had dropped. I am still fuming over not getting better prices for them yesterday. I suppose I was lucky to realize what going on and at least got out of them. But there is no glory. I should have done better. The results were about a 300% gain for the March calls and around a 320% gain for the April ones. The Aprils were bought just at the right time as I was a bit early for Marches or the gain would have been more. I have turned around the mistakes of the end of last year and January. The account is in the black. That doesn't mean it's easy street from here on out. It just means that that was a decent trade. And that trade is over. It means nothing now. The next trade is the one that counts. I am working on what that will be. GE has lagged here which makes me wonder just how good this rally can be. But if we push through 580 on the OEX, it should be up, up and away. I see no real good set-ups right now, so I have to be patient. I will get long gold again if we get to what I deem support. It is a battle to play this game. I hope I'm up for it.