A semi-holiday today as the banks and bond markets were closed for Veterans Day.  The Dow drifted all session and finished the day basically unchanged on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Still trying to hold or bounce from the important 1380 level on the S&P 500.  Where we move from here will be worth watching.  Still oversold on the short term technicals for the stock indexes.  GE fell 1/8 on the same very light volume.  No trades there for now.  The gold futures were flat on the day and off a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar didn't do much today either.  The XAU however fell 2 3/8 as it is now under performing the precious metal itself.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on very light volume.  I'm leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Not sure if it will get filled at the price that I'm willing to pay.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week and all the players should return tomorrow.  The Dow transports rallied today and perhaps the overall market will follow tomorrow.  Summation index still heading lower though.  It's anybodies guess as to what happens this week.  We'll watch the overseas markets tonight and go from there. 

The market tried to rally today but when it was all said and done the Dow only managed a gain of 4 points.  Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to hold in at the -150 level, which has been the stopping point in momentum since June.  The stock indices remain oversold on a daily technical basis.  Expiration week is coming up.  It remains to be seen if the usual positive bias will be in effect this time around.  I'd simply be guessing if told you where we are heading next for the S&P 500.  We are right at the 200 day moving average and this is where the battle will be to stop the decline.  It has held so far.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  No trade there for now.  Gold gained $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was off 2 1/2 though.  ABX down 3/8, GG and NEM dropped 3/4.  Volume was light.  I've left in the open order for the ABX January calls for now.  I may switch to IAG.  The technicals for gold itself are short term overbought now, while the gold share technicals are mid-range.  I'll have to ponder this idea once again over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the US election out of the way but the market not only didn't care, it sold off.  Probably because the outcome only guarantees more of the same political infighting that has gone on since the beginning of politics.  The stock indexes are technically oversold and staying there.  That is not bullish.  Perhaps expiration week can start to turn things around but I don't know.  Gold caught a bid this week and that has stopped the month long decline.  Whether or not this is the beginning of another attempt to the $1800 level remains to be seen.  The gold shares lagged this week.  With only 5 days to go in the November option cycle, I won't be trying any trades on that short of a duration.  The December options have an extra weeks time on them but one of the week there is a holiday week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and make some sense of things.  Friday afternoon is here and it is time to start to enjoy the weekend. 

What a time to take a couple of days off, which I rarely do but was already committed to.  A brief recap of the 2 days I missed posting the blog.  Tuesday saw a 133 point rally in the Dow as the election uncertainty was going to finally pass.  The gold futures rallied as well, over $30.  The XAU didn't rally as much though.  Wednesday saw a nasty sell-off for stocks as the Dow fell 312 points.  Gold was flat on the day and the XAU rallied slightly again.  Which brings us to today.  The Dow followed through to the downside and that isn't good sign if you're bullish.  The Dow dropped another 121 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average.  I would expect some attempt to stabilize here but who knows?  We are in a liquidation mode for whatever reason.  We will have to see how long this lasts.  The McClellan oscillator still has more room to the downside before we get to the snap back stage.  So it is time to keep an eye on things for sure.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume and broke to new recent lows.  The 50 week moving average comes in at just below $20.  Not trades here for now.  The gold futures had another good day in the flight to safety.  They rose $12 as the dollar had slight gains as well.  The XAU only moved up 1 1/4.  ABX and GG up 1/4, while NEM was flat.  Volume was average here.  Before I took off for a couple of days, I did place an order for some ABX January calls.  It wasn't filled.  The major gold shares are not moving as much here as I would expect.  Perhaps the recent earnings reports have kept traders away.  I may move over to a second tier gold producer such as IAG.  At least the percentage moves here lately have been better.  I have left the ABX January call trade open though, to see if it will get filled.  I'm still considering if this is a viable idea considering we've had a decent move in gold for the past few days and the major gold shares haven't participated.  Mentally I'm pretty tired, haven't slept well for a couple of days.  The stock indices have the look and feel as if they are simply breaking down here.  I'm not sure how long this will last but I don't think that it is done just yet.  7 days to go in the November option cycle so perhaps we will drop into that.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold has moved up this week but the gold shares haven't followed as much as they should.  No hurry to trade there either I suppose.  We'll keep and eye on how the foreign markets react to todays drop and go from there.

A bit higher on Monday as the Dow gained 19 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  It's a waiting game on the election at this point.  Perhaps we'll see a rally when that unknown has passed.  The technicals are still more oversold than overbought on the stock indices.  At this juncture, things could go either way.  If I had any real conviction, I'd try something here but I don't.  GE was up 1/8 after opening lower.  Volume was light.  The technicals appear to be turning up here.  Gold bounced back a little, up $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU fell over a point though.  No love for the gold shares.  ABX off 1/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume looks to be about average for the gold shares.  I'm still considering the gold share calls for January.  It may take a while to build a base though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a time of wait and see for the stock indexes here.  Wednesday will be an interesting session.  Regardless of who wins the election the markets will move on.  Nobody wants the gold shares here.  That should tell us something.  It's usually the time to buy unless we simply continue the recent free fall.  Obviously I have no conviction one way or the other there.  That said, I'll be trying the gold share calls again at some point.  I'll be away from my desk for the next few days due to a previous commitment.  I may or may not be able to post remotely.  Tomorrow should be slow again and then we will key off of the markets reaction to the election results.  I'm expecting Obama to win and we'll see how much of that is factored into prices already.  However I could be wrong and have been a lot this year.

Friday was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 139 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index started heading lower again.  We will really need to see things turn around rather quickly or we could be heading towards new recent lows for the stock indices.  The technicals remain oversold and that will be a problem if we don't start a rally here.  We got a bounce but there was no follow through.  The employment report was a bit better than expected but it didn't mean much to stocks.  Next week should be very interesting.  GE was flat after opening higher and the volume was a little better than average.  No trades here for now.  Gold got pounded lower on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost $40, which was the biggest one day loss in quite a while.  The XAU fell 8 1/8.  ABX off 1 1/3, GG dropped 2 1/4 and NEM led the way down by 4 1/2.  Volume was heavy in the gold shares as traders headed for the exits in a hurry.  I think the prevailing wisdom here is that the US dollar is starting a longer term rally here and the commodity complex is going to head lower.  That's my guess as to what occurred on Friday.  Whether or not that is true only time will tell.  Of course I'm still reeling from the ABX November call trade but I'm  willing to take a look at the gold share calls again for January.  However the drop at the moment is so steep that I will have to reassess this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes need to hold on here or it could get ugly.  Still oversold and we should have had more upside than the bounce on Thursday.  Perhaps we will get some rally this week but the market will go where it wants.  Gold is in a down trend.  There is a bit of support where we are right now but much more at $1625.  The charts of the gold shares look ugly to the downside.  I'll be away from my desk starting on Tuesday.  I may or may not be able to provide the daily market updates until Thursday or Friday.  I might be able to post remotely but we'll see.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.  

The expected upside showed up today as the Dow gained 136 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Perhaps the market knows something about tomorrows employment report.  Or not.  Technically we needed a bounce and we got it.  We'll have to wait and see if it is the start of something more.  GE gained 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps we are trying to put in a base here as well.  No trades there for now.  Gold lost a few bucks as the dollar didn't do much again today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8.  ABX was the story of the day as it got clobbered on a poor earnings report.  ABX down 3 7/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM fell 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy on ABX, about average for the others.  My ABX November calls were a complete 100% loss.  ABX gapped down at the open and blew past my stop loss order.  I never seem to do well with the short term trades and this was no exception.  I wasn't expecting anything like this but the market as usual will go where it wants.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see if we get any follow through to todays rally in the overall market tomorrow.  If so, we could be at the beginning of some type of rally here.  If not, it will be more of the same sideways activity pre-election.  So we'll see.  Gold seems to be in the same stand by mode.  I'm not sure if I'll try the gold share calls again.  I'll have to try and regroup from todays debacle.  I might go with the GDX for the next gold trade as the single stock risk would be less.  Trading a basket of the gold shares vs. a single company in theory has less risk.  We'll see.  Perhaps I simply expected ABX to have the same upside movement that GG had on its earnings release.  We'll get the employment number tomorrow and go from there.

We tried to rally but fell off as the Dow dropped 10 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  October trading has ended and we're on to November.  We've got the employment report on Friday and then the US election on Tuesday.  Technically the stock indices are still oversold and I believe that regardless of the numbers, near term we will move higher.  The S&P 500 has gone sideways for 4 days in a row.  Although the summation index is still heading lower, I expect an upside pop in the major averages within the next 2 days.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.  GE was off a nickel on about average volume.  Short term oversold here as well.  Gold moved higher to close out the month.  The futures rose $7.  The US dollar didn't do much today but had been lower when the US markets were closed.  The XAU gained 5 1/2 as it continues to outperform than precious metal.  ABX up 1 1/3, GG added 1 /2 and NEM rose 1 1/4.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  Higher prices were expected in the gold shares and we got them.  I ended up getting some ABX November calls before tomorrows earnings report.  I'm not a big fan of chasing moves but I think that ABX is going to go higher.  I still like the January calls as well if there is some pullback down the road.  Of course I could be mistaken and the stock sells off on the earnings report.  I have a stop loss order in place.  Regardless, it looks like last week was the time to purchase the January calls for ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Oversold on the stock indexes and staying there.  That is usually a recipe for disaster but we've only been moving sideways.  Perhaps another day of wait and see before the numbers on Friday.  It's anybodies guess.  Gold moved up today but the gold shares have really been acting well lately.  We'll see if that trend continues.  I'm not sure how long I will hold on to the November ABX calls.  I have a commitment on Friday halfway through the trading day. That will delay the blog posting until Saturday.  I will also be away from my desk for a couple of days next week due to a prior engagement.  The blog might be late or not posted in the middle of the week.  We'll see how ABX reacts to the earnings and go from there.  

A mini-holiday for those not dealing with the wrath of the storm named Sandy.  Wall Street should get back to business tomorrow.  The S&P 500 futures sold off over 10 points yesterday but we are back to being a bit higher.  I do expect some strength in the stock indices before the employment report on Friday.  Gold hasn't done much in the past 2 days.  The US dollar however did have some weakness today.  The gold shares have made some gains over the past 2 days on the Toronto exchange.  I will try and purchase some ABX calls ahead of the earnings that are out early Thursday however the premiums will probably be inflated.  It most likely would have been easier to attempt this trade under normal market conditions but that isn't the case.  It's hard to say what the conditions will be like tomorrow with the end of the month.  Perhaps we'll see some volatility but it's really anybodies guess.  The foreign markets have generally been slightly higher the past 2 days.  So we'll see what happens tomorrow morning and go from there. 

The stock market tried to sell off today but didn't as the Dow gained a mere 3 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We've moved sideways for 3 days and I think we are going higher.  We're still short term oversold.  My gut feeling is that if we were going to continue lower, we would have already.  When the market is in a decent decline, it doesn't hang around for 3 days.  It falls and we haven't, even though there has been plenty of bad earnings lately.  The GDP report was better than expected but this is a number that will be revised a couple of times.  I'm not saying that we will go to new yearly highs but we should rally in the beginning of next week.  GE lost 1/8 on average volume.  Oversold here as well.  No trades in mind at the moment.  The gold futures as well as the US dollar were flat on the day.  The XAU lost 1 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I've left in the open order for the January ABX calls.  The earnings for ABX are due on November 1st.  I believe that I will need to make the purchase ahead of the earnings if GG was any type of indicator.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The stock indices have had every reason to fall after Tuesdays drop and they haven't.  That's bullish moving forward.  The summation index is still heading down but that could change with one decent up day.  We should see higher stock prices in the beginning of next week.  The employment report on Friday should be the next major mover.  Gold has been in a downtrend for the month of October.  The gold shares have basically moved sideways in the same time period.  I will be trying to get some ABX calls at a good premium in the beginning of next week.  I would like to go out to January because the weekly chart here shows a potentially bullish head and shoulders pattern.  Potential because it hasn't happened yet and may not.  I may just get the near month for the earnings report but the risk would be much higher.  We'll see.  Plenty to think about over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Got somewhat of a bounce today as the Dow gained 26 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The day started with a nice rise but then the sellers took over for most of the rest of the day.  We're still short term oversold.  We should move off of the GDP report tomorrow.  Which way is anybodies guess.  GE was flat on the day with average volume.  We have at least stopped going down for now.  No trades for GE in mind at the moment.  Gold gained $11 on the futures and the dollar was a bit higher as well.  The story was in the gold shares as the XAU gained 4 7/8 on a strong earnings report from GG.  ABX and NEM were up a buck, GG soared 2 3/4.  The volume was light though, however you cannot argue with the price movement.  I still have the open order in for the January ABX calls.  Earnings are due for both ABX and NEM on November 1st.  I will probably want to own the calls before then if todays market action in GG is any indication of the future.  Or perhaps I'm too late once again.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The summation index continues lower but there is the possibility that if we rally tomorrow that the decline is over.  That's a guess as usual.  There's still a chance that we could unravel as well.  That is the type of market environment we are in at the moment.  There is no clear picture but we have moved lower lately.  Gold has held the level of $1700 so far and that would be a positive going forward if we can hold up.  I think the gold share calls can still be purchased for ABX.  Perhaps tomorrow if we see some weakness. 

The Dow closed down 25 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The Fed came and went with no real market reaction.  That was anticipated by most of the players.  The stock indices tried to rally today but to no avail.  We are short term oversold so some type of bounce should appear.  But the trend is down and support lines have been violated.  The Dow transportation index was down heavy today.  GDP on Friday and that should be the next market mover.  GE was flat today on average volume.  Oversold here as well.  Gold fell again today, off $7 on the futures.  The US dollar was flat today.  The XAU fell 3 1/8 as near term support appears to have been broken.  ABX down 3/8, GG lost 1 1/2 and NEM fell 1 1/4.  Volume picked up a bit and that isn't positive going forward.  The gold shares look like they're breaking down here on the daily candlestick charts.  ABX has held up better than the rest lately, however that could change at any time.  I still have the open order in for the January calls there but I might adjust it overnight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No buyers lately for stocks.  I don't feel any sense of impending doom here but the summation index continues lower.  Oversold on the stock indexes and that is a condition that needs to change or things could get dicey.  Oversold and staying there is a recipe for downside surprise.  Gold has gotten to $1700 and it really needs to hold on here.  There is some other support at $1675 but I would not like to see that happen.  The market will go where it wants though.  Commodities in general are falling now.  I'll have to ponder the ABX trade tonight and decide what to do.  We'll see if we can mount some type of rally tomorrow.

There was no upside follow through as the Dow fell 243 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  After yesterdays nice comeback, the stock indices just could not hold up.  We are short term oversold here, so a bounce tomorrow would not be out of the question.  The Dow transports actually were higher on the day.  The breadth of the market wasn't so bad either considering the magnitude of the decline.  The summation index continues lower though.  Rising trend lines on many of the stock indices have been broken.  We're heading lower and perhaps sideways is the best we can hope for near term.  GE fell another 3/8 and the volume was good.  This chart has broken down and that doesn't bode well for the overall market.  No trades in mind here.  Gold fell today as well on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures dropped over $15.  The XAU fell 5 2/3.  ABX off 3/8, GG lost 1 1/8 and NEM led the way down, weaker by 1 2/3.  Volume was light.  ABX held up considerably well with todays market sell off.  I still have in an open order for the January calls here but I may have to adjust it to get filled.  The option premiums are staying quite high for the ABX January series, which tells me that this idea may actually work.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tone of the game here has changed.  We are heading lower on the S&P 500, perhaps to 1400 or 1380 in my view.  Anything below that and we could be in big trouble.  I don't see that happening.  Gold is getting close to the $1700 level and it will be important to hold that in my opinion.  Might get there tomorrow.  We've got the Fed tomorrow but there really isn't much to expect from that this time.  I could be wrong.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays decline and go from there.

The Dow made quite a comeback today as we were down over 100 points and came back to finish up 2.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  We rallied in the last hour and that is a positive going forward.  We'll see if we can follow through to the upside tomorrow.  I'm not completely sold on the idea that the recent decline is over though.  But it could be as we hover at the 50 day moving average on the Dow.  The summation index continues to the downside.  We've got the Fed to deal with this week and the GDP report on Friday.  GE fell 1/3 on heavy volume.  GE cut it's loss for the day more than half as well.  However the GE daily chart looks like it is breaking down.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, we'll see lower overall stock prices ahead.  Gold gained a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar was pretty much flat on the day.  The XAU rose 2 1/4.  The gold shares continue to outperform.  ABX, GG and NEM all were higher by about 1/2 on light volume.  I'm leaving in the open order for the January ABX calls.  The open interest expanded on the strike prices that I observed on Friday and that's bullish.  I would ideally like to purchase some gold share calls this week on weakness.  May not get the chance but it's early in the week still.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a nice comeback for the stock indices today.  Follow through seems to me to be more important than usual considering where we are on many indexes.  The over the counter indexes have been weaker and that isn't a good sign for the bulls.  But if the major indices can hold up here, perhaps the decline is actually done.  I'm not exactly sure but my guess would be lower prices this week.  I could be wrong.  Gold is right on it's 50 day moving average.  The chart on the gold shares has been moving sideways for over a month.  I'll be looking for an upside breakout at some point.  Hence, I'd like to own some calls before that happens.  But the markets will do what they please, as always.  We'll see what transpires tomorrow.   

An interesting expiration Friday as the Dow fell 205 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Earnings disappointments were the norm for today.  The S&P 500 is right back to the 50 day moving average and the technicals have rolled over.  It appears that we are going to head lower.  My call for new yearly highs looks like another bad idea on my part.  I expected some weakness next week but not of this magnitude.  The uptrend line that has been in effect since June has been broken and the next support that I see is at around 1420 and then 1400 if that doesn't hold.  Anything could happen but todays action changes the near term tone of the market.  GE fell on its earnings report.  It was down 3/4 on heavy volume.  On the weekly chart here the uptrend line is at $21.50.  That line has been in effect since late 2011.  It is important that we stay above that level on a weekly closing basis or it could spell trouble for the overall markets.  That's my thoughts there at the moment.  Gold fell $20 on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  However the gold shares did not follow as the XAU only lost 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves.  The volume here picked up and they closed well off of their lows of the day.  Money sought the gold shares as a safe haven today in my opinion.  I left in the open order for the January ABX calls.  I noticed extremely heavy volume in the January 42 ABX calls today.  If the open interest expands on Monday it would be a positive sign.  The same type of action occurred in the ABX calls prior to the August-September run up.  I'm still a believer in the gold shares moving higher in the medium term future.  I could be wrong and often am.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was possibly a game changer for the overall stock indices.  The tech shares are leading the way down.  If the bank shares roll over here as well, we will probably be in a longer term decline.  Hasn't happened yet.  The fact that gold sold off today also makes the possibility of asset liquidation look real.  I'm going to try and purchase some gold share calls next week.  That is the game plan as of right now.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend to decide the best course of action.  I'll also be watching the financial media to see the reaction to todays sell off.  If the tone is bullish then we are most likely headed lower.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Getting short term overbought on the technicals for the stock indices.  That doesn't mean that we can't go higher though.  The NASDAQ had a big dip thanks to Google.  I'm not sure that means anything going forward.  I still think that the presidential re-election rally is in place.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  The earnings should be a factor tomorrow.  I have no idea what will happen there.  Todays daily chart candlestick was bearish though.  Gold fell about $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 5 points and closed practically on its low.  That's bearish going forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost a buck or more on what passes for average volume lately.  I dropped the strike price on my open order for the January ABX calls.  I would ideally like to purchase some gold share calls next week.  I believe that we'll see some overall market weakness next week and the gold shares should follow.  I could be wrong.  That is the game plan at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Expiration Friday on tap with a bunch of earnings reports as well.  Perhaps we'll see some volatility.  Otherwise it's a wait and see mode for me at the moment.  I might switch to the December gold share calls but that is something that I'll consider over the weekend.  We'll see what comes out of Europe overnight and go from there.

Just hanging around today as the Dow gained 5 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is heading higher.  The Obama re-election rally lives on.  Look for new yearly highs in the S&P 500 in the next few days.  The positive expiration week bias remains in effect.  No telling how long this uptrend will last but higher is the path of least resistance for now.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  A waiting game on the earnings here.  A good number could propel this issue to new yearly highs as well.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower again.  The XAU rose 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving in the January ABX call open order for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A European summit meeting tomorrow will grab the headlines and could possibly be a market mover.  The market is trending higher regardless.  We could continue to the upside until the US presidential election.  That's a guess as usual.  The gold shares continue to outperform the price of gold itself.  That remains a positive going forward.  We'll  keep an eye on the overseas markets and go from there.     

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 127 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Getting some OEX calls yesterday was the obvious trade that I failed to do.  Once again an opportunity has been wasted because I simply did not want to take the risk.  No risk, no reward in this game.  The summation index could turn back to the upside with todays numbers.  It appears that the stock indices want to rally into the election, which discounts an Obama victory.  2 solid up days are the beginning of a trend, as there are not any apparent sellers so far this week.  GE was flat on the day and the volume wasn't anything special.  Probably just waiting for the earnings on Friday here.  Gold bounced back as the US dollar was weaker today.  The yellow metal futures were up over $10 today.  The XAU gained 3 3/4.  ABX up a buck, GG added 1/2 and NEM led the way higher by 1 1/4.  Volume was light but the price action was positive.  I've left in the open order for the January ABX calls but we may start to rally in the gold shares as well.  The daily candlestick charts look constructive to the upside with todays action.  Perhaps the November calls are in order here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  The positive expiration week bias remains as we have gained over 2oo points in the first couple of days this week.  Not taking advantage of that is painful.  But you have to move on.  It looks like new yearly highs for the stock indexes are coming soon.  The gold shares are outdoing the price of gold once again and that is a positive moving forward.  ABX, GG and NEM should follow the overall market higher unless we see some sort of breakdown in gold but I don't see that happening.  Gold is still attracting capital.  We'll see what happens tomorrow after tonights second presidential debate.  That may or may not influence the price action on Wednesday.

We got a bounce today as the Dow gained 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Some upside was expected and the next question is whether we can sustain it.  The market did rally in the last hour which is a positive going forward.  We've held the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily charts.  The summation index is still moving down but that could change with another day like today.  There is a school of thought that says that we will rally into the election because of the re-election of Obama.  That could be true.  But we'll stick with the technicals and they are oversold and starting to move up on the stick indices.  So there is room to go higher.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  No trades here and the earnings are due on Friday.  Gold fell today as the futures lost over $20, breaking support.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU sold off early but followed the overall market back to finished up 1/4.  The gold shares outperformed gold itself and that bodes well for the gold shares moving forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I still have the open order in for the January ABX calls.  I'd like to see it filled before the earnings come out on November 1st.  May or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The positive expiration week bias looks intact after todays market action.  But we still have the rest of the week to go.  Plenty of earnings being reported this week along with a number of economic reports.  Time will tell if this is the beginning of a new leg up for the stock indexes.  I'm not sure one way or the other but we could rally into the expiration.  After that, we'll have to wait and see.  Gold broke down today on the daily chart.  The technicals are just getting oversold.  The 50 day moving average could act as support and that comes in at around $1710.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going out in time.  But for now it appears that gold is going to take a rest.  I'd still like to get some gold share calls though.  We'll see if the stock indices can follow through to the upside tomorrow.  

We closed the week with a whimper as the Dow gained just 2 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative, the opposite of yesterday.  Summation index heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Short term oversold and a bounce is overdue.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold its 50 day moving average on a daily basis.  The Dow as well is trying to hold on here but it has broken the uptrend line that began in June.  The over the counter markets remain above their uptrend lines.  It's a mixed bag but we are oversold and expiration week is coming up with its usual upside bias.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  It's possible that we are trying to put in a short term bottom here at around 22.50.  Gold was weaker on the day as the futures fell over $10.  The US dollar was weaker as well.  The XAU dropped 3 3/8.  ABX off 7/8, GG lost 2/3 and NEM down 3/8.  Volume was very light.  I canceled the open order for the November ABX calls and left in the order for the ABX January calls.  I may try the November calls again next week.  Earnings for ABX are due on November 1st.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  The weekly chart for the S&P 500 now has a bearish engulfing candlestick and the technicals have rolled over.  Perhaps we'll see some more weakness next week but I do believe that we will see some type of bounce first.  I could be wrong and often am.  I'm choosing not to take any risk there for now though.  I could change my mind over the weekend.  I still like gold for higher prices going forward but if the overall market falls here, the gold shares will probably follow.  I don't have any problem going out to January with the options.  But like anything else, it's just a guess.  I'm willing to take the chance here though.  The gold share weekly candlestick charts look bearish here as well, with the exception of NEM.  I'll have to double check the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We tried to hold onto the gains made early today but could not.  The Dow lost 18 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive though.  Short term oversold and a bounce is coming.  The indices were mixed today.  I'd expect some type of rally attempt tomorrow into early next week.  We are still right at the uptrend line for the S&P 500 and I expect it to hold for now in the short term.  But if it doesn't, the game will have changed.  Hasn't happened yet.  GE had a slight gain and the volume was very light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar lost some ground today.  The XAU gained 7/8.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was up 1/2.  Volume remains light here.  I adjusted down the price for the November ABX calls again.  I also placed an open order in for some January ABX calls.  I am now thinking that October could be a consolidation month for the gold shares.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  6 days to go in the October option cycle.  If I had the guts, I'd be willing to try the OEX calls tomorrow on any weakness.  The problem there is that if we break the uptrend line in the S&P 500, we'll be heading lower rather quickly.  The summation index is heading lower as well so I'm not willing to take the risk.  Gold is still meandering around here.  I'll keep an eye on Europe overnight and take it from there.