Moving higher today as the Dow was up 194 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. It was a back and forth session but we did finish in the black. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to move higher. I still think that we're on our way to the 3900 level in the near term. If we get there we'll consider the SPY July puts. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continued to fall. The XAU lost 4 1/2, while GDX fell 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX July calls are dead. I didn't even follow my own rules with a stop loss order. Pitiful. Not a lot of money involved but still. Probably will sell them tomorrow before the weekend. GDX closed below the 29 level, which is where I should have waited it to get to. But it loos like 29 will not hold as the gold shares are extremely weak for some reason. We are getting some blown out oversold readings for the gold complex relating to the gold shares. However the stocks here keep selling. I do think that it is time to buy GDX but with a losing trade in hand I will most likely remain on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually a bit higher today which certainly doesn't fit with an up market. Not sure what to make of that. Still above the 50 day moving average on the VIX. The line of resistance to move lower comes in at 26 and the VIX is currently at 29. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We opened with a gap lower, traded higher for most of the session and then dropped again in the final hour. The Dow fell 47 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Still short term oversold for the S&P 500. The market had to deal with the Fed speaking to Congress today and there were no new revelations. I'm still looking for the decline to take a break here and the S&P to trade up to at least the 3900 level. Oversold for too long in my humble opinion. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. No interest in owning the gold shares. My GDX July calls dropped again and I've already got too big a loss on this idea. GDX would have to turn around in a hurry and the daily chart looks like it's about to move lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators imply that it has plenty of room to go down. Whether or not that occurs is another question. The market has a summer feel to it already but not the doldrums just yet. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes on Thursday.

The first day of summer and a rally begins. The Dow gained 641 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today would start to change things. Monday was a market holiday so we'll have a short trading week. It's 2 days in a row up for the S&P and the NASDAQ. Most likely some kind of bottom is in place. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are still oversold so we've got room to move higher. We're still pretty far from the 50 day moving average. Resistance begins to come in at around 3900 and then the down trend line after that. But perhaps we can get some break from the selling in the near term. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/8. Volume was light as there is not interest in the gold shares. My GDX July calls are solid losers and perhaps I should just take the 50% loss right here. I'll give it until the end of the week so see if they come to life. Doubtful. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and we're still on the overbought side here in the short term. Plenty of room for the indicators to move lower. It was a great start to the week in the stock market for the bulls. We did get blown out to the downside on most indicators last week. Never did get to 3600 on the S&P but got close which is the level I'm still looking for at some point. But for now we'll be looking at today as the start of some kind of summer rally back up to the resistance zones. After that, who knows? Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A relatively quiet expiration Friday as the Dow fell 38 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving down. It was a mixed bag with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The S&P remains short term oversold so I do believe that some kind of bounce is coming. We're still waiting for the 3600 level there and then we'll decide what to do after that. Other indices have lower measuring targets for their head and shoulders tops so we could go into wait and see mode. Higher interest rates don't bode well for equities going forward either. But the market goes where it wants and we're very oversold on many time frames. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was back up today along with interest rates. The XAU lost almost 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My GDX July calls are back to losers as we roll into the July option cycle. This trade might have a chance if we see some upside next week. But the fundamentals for gold are negative for now just like the stock market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX headed back down today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. That would support some kind of bounce for stocks if it occurs. The short term indicators for the VIX are trying to roll over. Summer is approaching and we'll have to see if the doldrums set in or the volatility remains. We'll also be looking for some kind of summer rally. Trading could get thin as players go on vacation and there is no compelling reason to buy stocks at the moment. We'll be going over all the charts this weekend as the work must be done regardless. Europe and Asia ended the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was back to the downside today as the Dow dropped 741 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 9 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 got close to the 3600 level that we've been looking for. It remains short term oversold. It didn't close on the lows for the day for a change. Buyers are scarce. There is a worldwide heading for the exits in stocks as rates rise and inflation is the main concern. We are blown out to the downside again and some kind of relief rally is overdue and I mean for more than a day. The S&P remains pretty far from its 50 day moving average. Expiration Friday on tap and who knows what will go on there? Gold attracted buyers as the futures rose $35. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. Gold and bonds finally got a flight to safety bid. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was good here. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up. Maybe we can get a rally going but the gold shares should have done better with gold up $35. Perhaps we can blame that on the overall market decline today. My GDX July calls made it back to break even. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up but did finish off of the highs for the session. Not sure what to expect next here. Remaining short term overbought on the VIX but volatility has been the rule. Europe and Asia were down. Expiration Friday looms and we'll close out another wild week on Wall street tomorrow.

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow gained 303 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The Fed raised rates 3/4 of a point and the markets cheered. Counter intuitive to be sure but the bulls will take the rally. We did get a signal again last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move and we saw it today. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. Despite todays gains the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. We're still pretty far from the 50 day moving average here. Short covering today no doubt as there are still many questions to be answered regarding where we go from here. Gold bounced twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. None of that makes any sense with higher rates from the Fed but this is what markets are made of. The XAU was up 1 1/4, wiht GDX gaining almost 1/2. Volume was average. My GDX July calls are still losers. The daily chart for GDX is still oversold and shows a potential positive divergence on the RSI. So perhaps I can break even on this trade but I wouldn't count on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sunk today and the short term indicators turned lower. It might mean that the decline is over but I'm not sure yet. Another positive day like today would be a step in the right direction for the bulls. However todays price action had the tone of a relief rally more than anything else. Sure we can build on it but that remains to be seen for now. Only a couple of days left this week and Friday is options expiration. More volatility would be no surprise. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. Producer prices came in where expected. The NASDAQ sported a small gain on the day so perhaps there's some hope for the bulls. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. At least some kind of bounce is due but we'll have to see how the market reacts to whatever the Fed has in store tomorrow. The S&P is once again pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that is a condition that won't last. At any rate tomorrow promises not to be boring. Gold dropped another twenty bucks on the futures as it approaches the $1800 level. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. Rinse and repeat there. The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX July calls are now losers and I am seriously considering just bailing out of this idea. A stronger dollar with rising interest rates is not the backdrop for higher gold prices. Still no flight to safety for bonds or gold. In retrospect I should have simply remained on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped with a drop in stock prices and that does not fit. Getting to short term overbought for the VIX. Not sure what to expect from here. We're back down through the zero line on the summation index and we've already seen things fall apart. We're still looking for the 3600 level measuring objective from the head and shoulders top for the S&P. Don't know if we'll get there this time around. Asia was generally down and Europe lower as well. We'll see what the Fed has to say and then what the market says tomorrow.

Down we go as stocks got crushed again today. The Dow fell 876 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and about to cross the zero line again to the downside for the 3rd time since the beginning of the year. This type of action is normally unheard of. Everything is being sold as the S&P 500 just closed with a loss of over 20% from the top which is the common definition of a bear market. That head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart is valid and the measuring objective of 3600 is in sight. At this rate it feels like we'll go lower than that. The NASDAQ was off over 500 points today and led the way lower. There doesn't appear to be any relief in sight. We'll get producer prices inflation data tomorrow and then the Fed on Wednesday. No positive bias for option expiration week this time around unless we see some kind of relief rally. However the decline seems to be feeding on itself. Gold got clobbered today as well with the futures off fifty bucks. The US dollar soared along with interest rates. The XAU fell 9 1/8, while GDX lost 2 1/8. Volume was heavy. The GDX daily candlestick chart that looked so bullish on Friday now has a different tone. However I did place an order for the GDX July calls this morning and it eventually got filled. It somehow held its value despite GDX continuing to drop and the price on the calls is where I purchased them. This is a dangerous trade even though it has a lot of time left. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off today and closed above the 34 level. Not quite yet short term overbought here on the techncial indicators. No doubt that it's going to get there. The question is just how high is this indicator going to go? We are obviously in a market free fall. There is no good news on the horizon that can be seen right now. Margin calls are forcing the selling of whatever you have to cover. The US dollar is finding buyers but the other usual safe havens of gold and bonds aren't. The next couple of days could get intense as inflation and the Fed meeting take center stage. It doesn't look like the Fed can save things this time around. The carnage is worldwide as Asia and Europe sold off to begin the trading week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Well I guess it wasn't too late for the SPY puts after all. The Dow fell 880 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative again. The summation index is now moving lower. The inflation data came in hotter than expected and the market opened with a gap down. We bounced around the rest of the session and closed near the lows for the day. The NASDAQ led the way lower. It looks like we'll be testing the May lows for the S&P 500 next week. Not completely oversold on the short term indicators there. Looks like we'll be heading lower near term and we have the Fed next week to contend with. Perhaps the S&P will finally close in bear market territory. Gold rallied on the news eventually and the futures were up over twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. That did not stop gold from rising and that is a change from recent behavior. The XAU was up 5 3/4, while GDX soared 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside. The daily candlestick chart for GDX now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it and the short term indicators are moving up. This appears to be the beginning of a move higher that I think is worth chasing. I'll now be looking at getting some GDX July calls on any weakness next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved up but did finish off of the highs for the session. The short term indicators here still have a lot of room to go up. If they continue to move higher the stock market will continue to move lower. The medium term signals on the VIX are also starting to turn back up as well. If this continues we'll see new lows in the major indices. That appears to be where we are headed. A week left in the June option cycle as next week should be a doozy. Plenty to ponder this weekend. Europe and Asia were both down to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

No need to wait for tomorrows inflation data as the Dow sold off to the tune of 638 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. Buyers disappeared in the last couple of hours. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 did not make it back to the down trend line like we were looking for. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over after today. The sideways pattern here broke to the downside. Too late for the June SPY puts now in my opinion. Tomorrow should be interesting. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up a bit. The XAU dropped about 5 points, while GDX slid 1 1/4. Volume was average. If GDX makes it down to the 29 level I'll probably try the August or September calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed today with the drop in stocks. The short term indicators have turned up but they remain overbought. If this is just the beginning of a VIX rise, stocks will be going a lot lower. The VIX does remain below its 50 day moving average for now. But it looks like we're heading lower from here and perhaps the TRAN was the canary in the coal mine. The major averages remain in a tops beneath tops and bottoms below bottoms configuration. That implys bearish outcomes and lower prices going forward. However we also know to expect anything in this game so things could just as easily turn around tomorrow. But I doubt it. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how markets react to the inflation report tomorrow.

Lower today as the Dow fell 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. The S&P 500 led the way lower. Still moving sideways here as it is trying to make up its mind which way to go. Despite todays drop the S&P remains short term overbought. The TRAN took a hit today which could cause trouble for the bulls going forward. Tomorrow should be a waiting game on Fridays inflation report. Gold finished up a couple bucks. The US dollar was a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Remaining on the sidelines for any GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit lower today despite the drop in equity prices. That does not fit the usual relationship. Remaining short term oversold here and this won't last forever. Not sure where the VIX goes from here. We're still waiting for the S&P to get back to the next line of resistance that now stands at around 4225. The S&P has trended sideways for about 2 weeks as it decides what to do next. Only 7 days left in the June option cycle so the risk on doing something here is pretty high. We'll try and stay patient to wait for the opportune time. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

To the upside today as the Dow gained 264 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move and today qualifies as that. The gains were spread out to all the major stock indices. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Waiting for SPY to get above the 420 level before thinking about trying the June puts there. Volume has been lacking on this rise. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares are trending sideways. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX dropped below resistance today and that's a plus for stocks. It remains short term overbought and staying that way which usually means higher equity prices. The next resistance comes in at the 200 day moving average and then the final trend line at the 20 level. If it somehow goes straight down to 20, that would be the ideal time to try the index puts. The market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans so I would not hold my breath for this one. The Russell 2000 is acting better here and it led the way down and perhaps is now leading the way up. However the volume remains on the light side and that is not a sign of strength. We cannot argue with price though. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back and forth was the name of the game today as the Dow was up 16 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ out performed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and moving sideways for now. The next line of resistance for the SPY comes in at 425 so it's a waiting game at the moment. Inflation data due out on Friday. Gold was off six bucks on the session. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was pretty light here. Light volume here shows a general lack of interest for gold right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up just a bit and remains short term overbought. It is still above the short term line of resistance to move lower. A break of this line would bode well for stocks in the near term but it hasn't happened yet. Just under two weeks left in the June option cycle. I'd like to say I have a good idea of where we're going next but I don't. As long as the summation index is moving up we'll have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. If we make it up to the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 I'll consider the SPY June puts. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Stocks retreated today as the employment report came in a bit better than expected. The Dow fell 348 points on light volume. Light volume shows little interest so it wasn't a rush to the exits. But not a lot of buyers around either. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to move up and has now passed upwards through the zero line. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Despite todays drop the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Ditto for most of the major stock averages. A couple of weeks left in the June option cycle. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold dropped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU was off 3 1/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was light. The gold shares continue to mirror the overall stock market. June in general isn't usually a good month for gold appreciation. I'll probably look out to future months for the GDX calls at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher with todays market drop. The line of resistance to from April to move lower remains in effect but the daily chart still looks like it wants to go down. The VIX remains short term overbought. This weeks price action can be described as a digestion of last weeks big rally if you're a bull. The bearish case would be that there was no upside follow through to the gains. The week was basically sideways. We'll probably know more as we move on but continuing sideways would not come as a surprise as the market tries to make up its mind what to do here. I'll try and remain patient for the S&P to make it back up to resistance and go from there. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia higher and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 435 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. It appears that the next stop for the S&P will be the next down trend line and 50 day moving average at roughly 4250. Recently the McClellan oscillator hit a reading above the +300 level which is usually the sign of the beginning of an extended rally. We are in that mode now. We also had other extreme negative readings on some indicators at the last low put in a couple of weeks ago that suggests that perhaps the bottom for the decline that began in January is in. I'm still believing that we'll see lower prices later this summer but the market could prove me wrong. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar dropped and interest rates remained steady. The XAU jumped seven points, while GDX added over 1 1/3. Volume was average. It appears that the gold shares are following the stock market higher now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to drop and is sitting at trend line resistance that began in April. Another day like today will take the resistance out. Short term overbought on the VIX as well. It certainly has the feel that it will continue lower and stocks continue higher. Perhaps the employment numbers won't matter but we'll wait and see on that. Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how the short trading week finishes tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 176 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 led the way lower today. Still short term overbought for the S&P. The declines so far this week seem like a digestion of the recent gains more so than a resumption of the overall down trend. We'll know more as the week goes on and we get the reaction to the employment report on Friday. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold finished relatively flat on the session. The US dollar and interest rates were higher again. The XAU was up a point and GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. GDX remains more overbought than oversold on the short term indicators. Remaining patient here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually lower today which doesn't fit a down market. It also closed below the 50 day moving average. It is short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. It will certainly be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the week. Waiting on Fridays jobs report for now. The economic data out today was mixed. My thinking is that we'll see higher to sideways prices for a while to get the summation index back above the zero line and positive once again. That's my best guess at the moment. After that, who knows? I'm still in the camp for lower prices later this summer with the same target of 3600 for the S&P. However if we make it through the 200 day moving average and the final down trend line for the S&P, that theory will be proven wrong. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Some selling as traders returned to their desks as the Dow fell 222 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. Not the worst session in the world as the Dow led the way lower. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought on some but not all of the indicators. We started going straight up last week and that cannot last forever. Plenty of overhead resistance for the S&P with the next down trend line coming in at around 4250. End of the month today and a short trading week. Jobs report due out on Friday. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold dropped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was about average. It appears that the short term indicators for the gold shares are rolling over. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up but just slightly. The 50 day moving average is still resistance for this indicator to move lower for now. Getting oversold on some of the short term indicators as well. My thinking was that the 50 day would not hold up but I could be wrong. That would imply more selling going forward. We'll know by the end of the week. I'd expect positive money flows though since tomorrow is the beginning of a new month. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The rally continued today as the Dow gained 575 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher with gusto. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that's a plus for the bulls. It has been a very good week for stocks. The S&P is climbing back towards the 50 day moving averge but resistance begins at 4200. There's also the next down trend line and the 50 day at 4275. At the rate we're going you'd expect things to just move past these levels next week though I don't think we are simply heading straight up but I could be wrong. Not sure how much of today is short covering ahead of a long holiday weekend as the markets are closed on Monday. The S&P is not yet short term overbought but it's getting there. Thw weekly indicators have turned up for the S&P. Another week like this and the head and shoulders pattern for the S&P will be negated. Gold was up about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. Getting to short term overbought for the gold shares but not there yet. Staying patient with regards to trading the GDX again here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed on its 50 day moving average. This area has proven to be resistance for the VIX to move lower for the past month. I get the feeling that it will break lower this time around with just the way the market has all of a sudden lost its sellers. Still above 20 for the VIX and there's other resistance to be found going forward. But we'll let the market tell the story as I don't want to get caught up in trying to be right about the S&P getting down to 3600. It could be that we've seen to low for this down draft and not close at a bear market level for the S&P 500. A similar thing happened at the end of 2018. We'll see. Plenty to ponder over the long weekend. We'll be checking the charts as usual. Europe and Asia finished the week with gains. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Finally some kind of rally is taking place as the Dow gained 517 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way up. A bottom is in place for now. The S&P 500 broke through the first down trend line of resistance. The short term indicators here are moving forward. Other indices have broken through the near term resistance as well. We are making our way back towards the 50 day moving averages for the major stock indexes. The S&P 500 has plenty of resistance at the next down trend line and congestion at around the 4200 level. That's the next stop in my view and we'll see what happens when we get there. It is possible that the down trend in stocks is over but I'm not in that camp. I still think a trip down to the 3600 level for the S&P is what's in store. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares remain stuck below their 200 day moving averages for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today but remains above its 50 day. Not yet completely oversold here. The major stock indices have found buyers here and it could last for a while. However if the head and shoulders pattern on the S&P weekly chart is valid, there's more room to go lower as we move out in time. I'm guessing we'll trend higher and sideways for a while until we reach the next resistance. What happens there will be the next key. We did just reach some very oversold conditions that usually mark market bottoms with levels of bearishness at extremes. We'll need some time to work that off before heading down again if my view is correct but of course I could be wrong. The market goes where it wants. Asia was mixed and Europe higher again. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was another day of back and forth as the Dow gained 191 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher. The S&P 500 is now at the first down trend line on the daily chart and the short term indicators are pointing up. Another day like today will get us through that line and that would be the first step to higher prices going forward. I still think that we've got to move back towards the 50 day moving average before we get another leg lower. Or perhaps the decline is over as we don't know what the future holds. But for now we'll see if we can get through this first line of resistance. Gold lost $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. They are stuck at their 200 day moving averages. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a higher market. I get the feeling it will make it past the 50 day moving average this time around. We did recently hit some pretty negative extremes on some of the technical indicators that we follow. So some kind of relief rally is not out of the question and actually overdue. However looking out over the medium term, the measuring objective for the head and shoulders pattern for the S&P 500 on the weekly chart has not been reached yet. We are still looking for 3600 in the months ahead. Patience for now. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Mixed would be the word to describe todays price action as the Dow gained 48 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ lower. The NASDAQ was the clear under performer. However the major indices finished well above their worst levels of the session. That is part of the subtle change that we are seeing now. Sell offs are not continuing into the close for the moment. Buyers are stepping in. This is different from what we've witnessed for the last couple of months. It's one of the reasons why I think the wholesale selling is done for now. I could be wrong. We haven't made it through the first down trend line for the S&P yet. Gold was up over $15 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower again along with interest rates. The XAU was up two points, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. Both the XAU and GDX are challenging their 200 day moving averages. They've both made it past their short term down trend lines but the volume is lacking. The short term indicators here are almost mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. I'm thinking that we'll get back to the 50 day moving average and see what happens there. There's still plenty of bears put there for the advance in stocks to continue in my view. I also believe that we'll see a return towards the 50 day moving averages for the major indexes before we think about selling off again. The market is still coming to grips with the reality of lower expectations from companies as we go forward. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The week begins with a rally as the Dow gained 618 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We got some follow through upside from Fridays late gains. The Dow led the way which isn't the most bullish scenario but we'll take it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll see if we can get through the first down trend line at about 4065 this time around. The S&P needs to head back towards both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and we'll see where we go from there. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Holding off on any GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned back down. The VIX appears to be implying higher stock prices in the near term. Can't say that for sure though as it hasn't been able to get back down through its 50 day moving average at 26 lately. We'll see what happens if it gets there. To me it seems that the positive RSI divergences for the major averages will work this time and we'll see higher prices going forward. Not something that turns into a rally back to new highs but something that brings us back to the overhead resistance of which there is plenty. It would also relieve us of some of the extreme bearishness that prevails at the moment. Then perhaps we'll head lower later on as the summer moves on. I'm still looking for at least the 3600 level on the S&P. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A final hour rally brought the major averages back from the brink as the Dow finished with a gain of 8 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues sideways. The S&P 500 made it down 20% intraday but closed above the bear market level. It remains short term oversold. I still think that we are putting in some kind of bottom here and todays price action reinforces that view. The major averages are too far away from their 50 and 200 day moving averages to stay this low for too long. That doesn't mean that the decline is over but we should see some kind of rally or bounce at least back to one of the down trend lines. We're still looking for the S&P to reach 3600 before thinking about putting longer term money to work. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU was off 1/2, while GDX lost about a dime. Volume remains light here. Perhaps will attempt the GDX June calls but will need to see a pullback in the gold shares from here to consider it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly on the session but dropped well off of its highs for the day. The short term indicators have made it back to mid-range so you can make a case for either direction here. Looking at the major averages it looks to me like we've put in a short term bottom today with hammers on the daily candlestick charts. The are also some potential positve RSI divergences for some of the indices. So I think that we might see some upside next week. Now if things fall apart on Monday and we close lower than todays low, I'll have to change my view. Way too many bears out there at the moment though. We'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another back and forth session with the winding up with a loss of 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The big caps led the way lower today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Considering yesterdays debacle the price action wasn't all that bad today. We also have the gyrations of option expiration to get through. My guess is that we're putting in a short term bottom here. We'll know in the coming days. Gold rallied today as the economic data for housing came in weak. The precious metal futures gained $25. The US dollar was lower and interest rates retreated slightly. The XAU climbed 6 1/2 and GDX added about 1 3/4. Volume was good to the upside and perhaps a bottom is now in place. I did place an open order for the GDX June calls overnight but it wasn't filled. Probably too late here and GDX didn't make it down to the 29 level. There is a down trend line in place for GDX and we haven't made it through there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. The Bollinger bands here are getting closer which implies some kind of big move coming in the VIX. I don't know which way. Interesting times. We'll be moving into the June option cycle next week and premiums will be elevated. On the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday turns out tomorrow.

Back to the downside today as the major averages got clobbered. The Dow dropped 1164 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways after trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 rolled back over. The S&P did not even make it back to the first down trend line on the daily chart. So much for the positive option expiration week bias. Not sure where we go from here in the short term but the market is coming to grips with what inflation will do to company earnings if it persists. The S&P is still pretty far from both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. This cannot last indefinately. Gold fell five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower on a probable flight to safety. The XAU lost over 3 3/4, while GDX shed about 3/4. Volume remains light here. If GDX makes it down to the 29 level I'll probably try the June calls there. Still short term oversold for GDX and getting there on a medium term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX zoomed higher as it bounced off of its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators turned around as well. Not sure what to expect next here with the VIX. The Dow and the TRAN both closed at a new low for the decline that began back in January. Other indices came close. I don't think that we'll see another day like today for tomorrows market action but who knows? As always, the market goes where it wants. Asia was generally higher and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 431 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are mid-range. The positive expiration week bias seems to be in effect. I'm pretty sure we can say that the decline is over for now. However there is plenty of upside resistance as we make our way higher from here. At some point I'm pretty sure that we'll turn back down to new lows but that could be weeks or a couple of months from now. We'll try and take our cues from the summation index. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX was flat. Volume remains pretty light for the gold shares as there is no interest after the recent decline. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued down and landed on its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term oversold here. Would like to see it get back to the 20 level in order to purchase some puts. The markets hit negative extremes on numerous indicators recently and it will take some time to work them off. There is a chance that the lows are in for this move down but I don't think so. The easy money is just starting to be pared back. My thinking is that we'll see a lower low sometime in the autumn or sooner and that will be the time to think about putting longer term money to work. I do not have any short term trades in mind right now as we will be moving into the June option cycle next week. We are almost at the first down trend line for the S&P at 4110. We'll see how that goes. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It was a day of back and forth and the Dow finished with a gain of 26 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trying to stop its decline. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 lower. The S&P remains oversold but not extremely so. Option expiration week and perhaps we'll see the usual positive bias. The S&P 500 now has short, medium and long term down trend lines to get through. Plenty of spots to try the SPY puts if you're inclined. Gold was a bit higher on the futures today. Both the US dollar and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and has plenty of room to go down as it remains above the 20 level. Ideally we'd like to see it get back to the 200 day moving average and trendline support. That would set us up to try the SPY puts. However the market rarely cooperates. With only 4 days left in the May option cycle I'll most likely stay on the sidelines for now. Perhaps try the GDX June calls but we'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how thihgs go tomorrow.

We've been looking for some kind of bounce and we saw it today as the Dow gained 466 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to halt its decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Still short term oversold for the major stock indices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. However one day does not make a rally. But the extreme oversold conditions that we've seen prevail may finally be coming to an end. They have already lasted longer than usual. That doesn't necessarily mean the decline is completely over but perhaps the selling will halt for now. Gold dropped another $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 2 2/3 while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares followed the overall market higher today. I did place an open order for the GDX May calls overnight but canceled it early this morning. Perhaps I'll try the GDX June calls as we move forward. GDX continues to be short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower today and the short term technical indicators have moved lower as well. The VIX is sitting on a short term up trend line and if it can break lower from here I'd expect the bounce to continue. My guess is that's what about to happen but I could be wrong. We are overdue for the sellers to take a break though. Option expiration week is upon us. Not sure what to expect this time around. The NASDAQ has been in a bear market and the S&P 500 almost joined it this week. I still think that it is only a matter of time before the S&P gets there. It looks like the weekly S&P 500 chart has a massive head and shoulders top that has been triggered. The measuring objective there would be the 3600 level. That's eventually where I feel this is going. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More selling today but a last hour bounce limited the damage. The Dow fell 103 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues down. Inflation numbers today were par for the course as the market opened lower then bounced around. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed well off of their lows for the session. They remain short term oversold. We're still blown out on the technical indicators as a decline like this renders them moot. Almost got to the 3840 level on the S&P to confirm bear market territory. Although the 20% threshold is arbitrary in reality. It's plain to see that we're in a down market. I'm expecting some kind of decent bounce before option expiration next Friday. Not sure if I'll be able to figure out the timing. Gold fell $30 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower. The XAU dropped over 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside again. Both indexes closed up from the worst levels of the day. I did put in an order for the GDX June calls but canceled it during the session. GDX remains oversold and staying that way. On the daily chart here the pattern is a possible measured move down. The measuring objective is 29. If it does make it down there, I may try the GDX May calls again for the bounce. Both gold and silver have broken their longer term support on the daily charts. How low they go is now a guessing game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down. Could the VIX be signaling that this part of the decline is coming to an end? Hard to say as I haven't been able to figure things out here for a while. As I've said, the major stcok indices are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages and in the past that has led to at least some kind of bounce. The question is when and I would not be surprised to see a decent bounce before expiration. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Once again the market tried to rally today but failed. The Dow lost 326 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The inflation data came in a little worse than expected but the market moved higher. However that didn't last and we finished on the lows of the session. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and that's a negative. Indicators are blown out to the downside and remain that way. Oversold for weeks on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500. Almost to the 20% down bear market threshold for the S&P. Option premiums remain high for the SPY. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1/3, while GDX was flat. Volume was a little above average. The gold shares followed the market as they rallied early and then gave it all back. I dumped the GDX May calls that I had for a 70% loss. I had a chance to take the acceptable 50% loss but didn't. This was a trade that never had a chance as it did not show a profit the entire time that I held it. I'd still like to try the gold share calls again but will go out to the June contract if I do. However the market just keeps dropping with no stabaization in sight. Gold itself is not providing the usual safe haven. Interesting times. Mentally I'm disappointed in the latest trade as I did not follow the guidelines to stay away from a big loss. Discipline is one of the keys to the game and if you can't do that you don't have a chance. The VIX was lower today and that market dropped. That doesn't fit. The VIX remains overbought in the short term. Not sure where it is going from here. We'll get more inflation data tomorrow and the odds are it won't be good. We'll see how the market reacts. Seven days to go in the May option cycle. I'll look at things tonight and decide if I want to place another order in GDX. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Tomorrows another day.

Back and forth was the theme of the day as the Dow fell 85 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains on the day though. The S&P remains oversold as do all of the major stock indices. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and see what happens. The averages are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages on a daily basis so some kind of short covering bounce would not be a surprise. Gold lost support at $1850 as it dropped $15. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates were steady. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. GDX blew through my stop without getting filled. I decided to hang on to it this time around but the loss will be larger than it should be like the last trade that didn't get filled unless we see some kind of quick turnaround in the gold shares. Doubt it. Support has been broken and gold is dropping like a stone. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains overbought. Not sure which way it'll go tomorrow but with the inflation data due out I'd expect volatility to pick up early. We'll have to wait and see. Europe was up last night while Asia was lower with the exception of China. We'll see how things go on Wednesday.

Look out below as the market continues to fall apart. The Dow fell 653 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The final area of support for the major indices gave way and we'll just have to wait and see where support now shows up. The NASDAQ was once again the leader to the downside. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. The 20% lower bear market there is at around 3840. At this point that seems like only a matter of time. The smaller stock indexes have already lost over 20%. Blown out to the downside on many of the indicators and at areas that usually lead to at least bounces if not rallies themselves. But there are no buyers. Inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Hold on to your seats. Gold got slammed again and the futures dropped thirty bucks. We're at the the support of $1850. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 8 1/2, while GDX sled 2 points. Volume was good to the downside. I did try the GDX May calls again and the order was filled. It's showing a loss already and if the gold shares continue lower with the market this trade will get stopped out tomorrow. I'm considering going out to the June contract for GDX if this trade doesn't work. Silver is at the last area of support and closed below $22. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed higher again and remains short term overbought. It almost closed above the 35 level. Interesting to say the least. There's no reason it can't go higher but stocks are very oversold. Perhaps we'll get some kind of capitulation wash out this week. That's simply a guess because the fundamentals for owning stocks right now are negative. That said, the selling won't go on forever. Below the zero line on the summation index and moving lower. Not often seen but that is what's happening now. Europe and Asia were down as it's a worldwide sell off. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

It was a day of hanging around as we opened lower and stayed that was for much of the session. The Dow fell 98 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but the market did finish up from the worst levels of the day. The employment data came in about where expected. At least the market didn't fall off a cliff like yesterday but it's hard to say where we go from here. The S&P did hold on its recent lows but other indexes did not. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates slightly higher. The XAU lost 2 points while GDX shed 1/3 or so. Volume was lighter here. I did place another order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled. I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend. Gold up and the gold shares down again doesn't inspire confidence in the calls. However the gold shares are being dragged lower by the overall market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above 35 early and then turned around to finish lower on the day. It looks like it wants to continue downwards but as we've seen lately anything goes. Not getting a good feel for where the VIX is going. The overall stock market has been oversold for a few weeks now and I'm not sure this will continue except that we're in a down market. We get some good one day rallies but then the sellers return. There is still two weeks left in the May option cycle so there's certainly time remaining for a decent trade. I'll be looking for something over the weekend. We'll be getting some inflation data next week and that is sure to be a market mover. For now we'll look ahead to checking the charts on Saturday and Sunday to come up with some new ideas. Europe and Asia were both lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market got pummeled today as the Dow fell 1063 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned back down. The selling was relentless but the market did finish off of the lows. The NASDAQ led the way lower and dropped 5%. Not sure what to make of what's going on here. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back down. I don't know what to expect tomorrow. We haven't taken out the lows of Monday yet but a repeat of today would do it. A very volatile and unstable atmosphere at the moment. Gold was actually up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was back up and interest rates were higher as well. The gold shares followed the market lower as the XAU lost 5 1/2 while GDX shed 1 1/8. Volume was good on the way down. I did place an order for some GDX May calls again but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. I might try this again tomorrow if we see follow through selling in the markets. However there is also the option of simply heading to the sidelines as the volatility has really ramped up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has bounced off of its 50 day moving average and was up 6 points and now is back over the 30 level. The short term indicators are pointing back up as the volatility takes over again. Up 900 one day, down a thousand the next is a tough market to make out. However we are below the zero line in the summation index and that remains a pretty big negative. We've got the jobs report tomorrow and it's anybodies guess what the market will do after that. I'll go over the charts tonight and decide if I want to make a trade tomorrow and hold it over the weekend. Europe was lower last night with Asia mixed and still with some markets closed there. We'll close out a crazy week tomorrow.

A huge move higher today as the Dow jumped 932 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. Rates rose as expected from the Fed. Later the Fed chair jawboned the markets higher with his comments. Truth be told the market was so bearish it only had one way to go. Short covering today again to be sure. However rallies that spring out of nowhere are bear market characteristics, even if the S&P 500 hasn't reached that stage yet. Some of our technical indicators were at bear market extreme levels so moving higher is not a surprise. Maybe we can make it back up to one of the down trend lines for the S&P and then try the SPY puts before the May option cycle ends. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned back up. The NASDAQ barely led the way higher today but it's still a plus. We'll remain patient for now. Gold advanced $14 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained almost 3 points, while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was good. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls as I've missed this opportunity for now. The short term indicators for GDX have also turned back up. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I took the loss on the GDX call trade Monday when it blew through my stop limit order, while at the same time I had another buy order for the GDX calls that wasn't filled even though it hit the trade price. Needless to say that trade would have already more than doubled. But we're at the mercy of the computers now in the game and sometimes things just don't work out. The VIX dropped today and it's looking like we're heading back down to the support line for this indicator. That would coincide with a rally in stocks. Ideally we'd get to the support line for the VIX at the same time we reach the down trend resistance line for the S&P. That would be the set up for the SPY puts. The markets rarely cooperate. Next up is Fridays employment report. Europe and Asia were lower, with parts of Asia still on holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow was up 67 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The S&P 500 led the way today but is still short term oversold. Not sure what the reaction will be tomorrow as it is already a foregone conclusion that rates will go up 1/2 a point. We'll just wait and see what the market has in store for us. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares have out performed the precious metal for the past couple of sessions. GDX is still short term oversold. I did place another order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. My hope is we get some selling after the Fed and the order gets filled. My feeling is that the decline in the gold shares is over. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be saying that higher stock prices are on the way. Some of our indicators for the market are so blown out to the downside that a rally here would be no surprise. However it must also be said that in down markets things stay oversold longer than you think. I guess we'll see what the market reaction to the Fed is tomorrow and go from there. What was open in Asia was mixed, while Europe was higher. It's a waiting game for now.

Buyers showed up today in the final hour and the Dow rose 84 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading lower. We were down for much of the session until the last hour reprieve. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is hanging in there after breaking support. It remains short term oversold. We are overdue for something more than just a bounce. The bearishness is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Perhaps we'll get some kind of relief rally after the Fed on Wednesday. Most of the techncial indicators for the overall market are blown out to the downside. This condition cannot continue indefinately. Option premiums for the SPY remain overpriced due to the volatility. Gold got smashed today as the futures dropped about fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was good. The gold shares did finish up from their lows of the session and held up rather well considering the drop in gold itself. The early drop in GDX blew through my stop limit loss order so I simply bailed out at the market. This caused the loss to be more than the limit price as the trade lost 75%. Not a lot of money involved here but the percentage loss was more than the acceptable limit. But that can happen in fast markets. I did place another order for the GDX calls at a lower strike price but canceled it a few hours later. I'm debating whether I want to try this again or not. Oversold to be sure for the gold shares but gold is down to the support at around $1850 and buyers have disappeared. Silver bounced near the support at $22 today. I'll consider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX reversed lower today and perhaps is signaling that the decline is over. Perhaps being the key word there. Still short term overbought for the VIX but it is up in the area where it has turned back down recently. Everybody knows the Fed is raising rates on Wednesday so maybe it is already in the markets and the selling will subside. There's still plenty of time left in the May option cycle. Asia had a partial holiday for May day but what was open was lower along with Europe with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Stocks took a beating today to end the month of April. The Dow fell 939 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower again. Oversold and staying that way for stocks and that is never a good sign. The S&P 500 remains oversold and closed at a new low. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down. It appears that the support will not hold up. Not sure how far we'll go down from here. The employment cost index was higher than expected. The Fed will be raising rates next week. Stocks are being sold regardless of the earnings news. The bearish atmosphere is thick. Yesterdays rally is forgotten. Will anything change next week? The S&P closed below the 4200-4150 zone so it could be a case of look out below. Gold was up six bucks on the futures but was much higher during the session. The US dollar was lower but interest rates continue to rise. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My GDX May calls are just about to be stopped out for a loss. Will probably happen Monday morning unless the gold shares rally out of nowhere. I'm debating whether to try this trade again next week or simply head to the sidelines. GDX remains short term oversold and closed below the 36 level which I had pegged as the point it had to hold on a medium term basis. The fundamentals don't look good for gold at the moment either. However the US dollar is very overbought and has moved up in a straight line. Any break there would be viewed as a positive for the precious metal. However if the market continues to collapse it will take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved right back up and remains overbought. This isn't the usual behavior for the VIX and I'm having trouble figuring it out. It is above 33 again and it usually doesn't stay at a high level for long. That said, if the market does continue lower from here the VIX could easily reach 40 or above. The summation index is moving lower and we are below the zero line. The buying we've seen lately hasn't held up. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A rally springs out of nowhere as the Dow climbed 614 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today could get it moving sideways. The market is trying to hold the support here and doing its best. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. Our call/put ratio is showing too much bearishness. GDP came in negative and below expectations. Stagflation is in the news again. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. Perhaps we can get some kind of rally going here with all the bears out there. However even if the market holds up here I do think that eventually the support at the 4200-4150 level for the S&P will be broken. Todays big rally out of the blue is classic down market price action. Maybe the rest of the May option cycle can bring us back to the down trend line and set up the SPY puts. Wishful thinking most likely. Gold was up $8 on the futures as it had a turnaround during the session. The US dollar continues to rise while interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU gained 2 7/8, with GDX up 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX May calls are still losers as they are too far out of the money. The poor entry is the doom of this trade most likely. However if we get another day like today for GDX tomorrow, we'll be back to the 36 level and perhaps this idea will have a chance. That is also wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today but remains short term overbought. I'm still not getting a good idea of what is going on with this indicator at the moment. This still is an important week for stocks. So far we've held the support for most of the major averages. Unless there is a dramatic downside slump tomorrow the support will hold for now. My view is that the support will be taken out eventually. However with all the bears out there now perhaps some kind of rally will have them retreat. Maybe if we get some more short covering like we saw today the negative mood will abate. We'll see if we get any reaction to the employment cost index tomorrow. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We bounced around today as the market is trying to make up its mind what to do here. The Dow gained 61 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down and has passed through the zero line. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and at the last line of support. Ditto for the other major stock averages. Nothing was settled today as for where we go from here. Perhaps tomorrows GDP data will decide the markets near term fate. We're due for some kind of bounce but with the summation index moving lower the trend is down. Gold lost $15 on the futures and is now clearly below the $1900 level. The US dollar is still moving up and today interest rates joined it. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on pretty light volume. My GDX May calls are solid losers and a close this week around the 36 level doesn't seem to be in the cards unless we see a dramatic turnaround in the next two sessions. At the rate it's going the trade will be stopped out tomorrow. GDX also remains short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is short term overbought. I'm not sure where it goes from here. Normally I'd say it will drop from here and stocks will move higher but these are not normal times so it seems. The big tech earnings came in mixed today. More are due out tomorrow. There's also employment cost data out on Friday. So there will be excuses for the markets to move. The question is whether the support will hold or not. We'll know soon. Asia was lower with the exception of China while Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Stocks sank today as the Dow fell 809 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We'll take our cues from there. Yesterday I thought that we would hold in here at the near term support for the S&P. There's still a chance as we have closed today right on it but the tone of things is pretty negative. The S&P is short term oversold and staying that way. Perhaps the big tech earnings can save things here but it seems only a matter of time before we break down. The summation index appears to be heading through the zero line again unless we see a dramatic short term turnaround. At this point I'm not counting on that. The NASDAQ once again led the way lower. Tomorrow will probably tell the story of where we are going from here. Gold was up six bucks on the futures as it tries to hold the $1900 level. The US dollar continued higher and interest rates continued lower. The XAU dropped 3 7/8, while GDX slid 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares are following the market lower. My GDX May calls are showing a loss. I may just take the loss here and try a lower strike price if we keep dropping. GDX is now short term oversold and this is where it technically makes sense to try the calls. But if the market does collapse as the summation index goes through the zero line, the gold shares will probably head much lower too. Interesting times to be sure. I am still a believer in the gold shares though. If they finish the week around the 36 level for GDX the weekly chart pattern for higher prices will still be in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped and is now above 33 as volatilty takes center stage. Short term overbought as well. I'm not sure what to expect here. The weekly indicators here still have room to go higher. Once again tomorrow will be important as we are on the brink of breaking the near term support for many of the major stock indices. Tonights after the bell big tech earnings will give us a clue. With the summation index moving lower it isn't a good sign for the bulls. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still heading lower. The NASDAQ led the way today and that is a plus for the bulls. A lot of big tech earnings are out this week and perhaps they can save the market from a complete break down. I'm getting the feeling after today that they will. The major stock indexes have held up where they need to for now. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold but today could be the beginning of a move back up to the down trend line. We'll know more by the end of the week. However if we turn back down this week and go through the zero line on the summation index it will get ugly. That's my view on where we stand at the moment. It is an important week for stocks. Gold got clobbered as the futures fell $35 and dipped below $1900. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. The XAU lost 5 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good again to the downside. My open order for the GDX May calls was filled. I thought about adjusting it last night as gold was weak on the futures but didn't as I did not think we'd see the losses in the gold shares that we saw today. The entry on the trade was lousy. GDX slid right through the weekly down trend line at 36 and was off better than two points during the session. My GDX call trade is showing a small loss. Plenty of time left for this trade but it could be the case of probably getting out sooner rather than later. The stop loss order is in. The gold shares are short term oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX reversed course today as well but remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators are trying to roll over though. I don't have a good feel for the VIX here. Big tech will probably be the key for the market this week. Most of the important companies have their earnings reports in the coming days. We'll also a look at 1st quarter GDP on Thursday. Today was promising for the bulls but we're not out of the woods yet. Europe and Asia were lower overnight as selling took over around the globe. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The market got clobbered today as the realization of the end of easy money takes hold. The Dow fell 981 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and once again headed to the zero line. If we don't turn around soon things will get worse. We just went through the zero line on the summation index in January. But as always the market will go where it wants. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. That's never a good sign as the bears are in charge. The Dow led the way down percentagewise today but not by much. Buyers have vanished. There's nothing to think that Monday will be any different. Gold was off $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher while interest rates remained steady. The XAU fell 5 1/3 and GDX was off 1 1/8. Volume was good. I did place an order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there for now. Support for GDX on the weekly chart comes in at the downtrend line that was broken recently. This is at approximately the 36 level. GDX is getting oversold on the indicators for the short term. However if the market goes into freefall and through the zero line on the summation index it will probably take the gold shares with it. In that case this trade won't work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a big spike and closed above its 50 day moving average. It is almost completely overbought on the short term indicators. Another day like today would certainly do it. The small stocks here are heading to their recent levels of support. If things don't hold up here soon it will get ugly. I suppose that the fact that we've started to drop before even getting back to the down trend line in the S&P isn't a good sign. The 70 point S&P 500 rally out of nowhere on Tuesday was a classic down market sign. There will be plenty to digest over the weekend. Europe sank and Asia was generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a dramatic one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 368 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators rolled back over and are already in oversold territory. There were more indications from the Fed that the easy money policy is over, which we already knew. Interest rates are going up and liquidity is being pulled back. It's hard for stocks to go up when there isn't any money. We'll see how long this lasts but we continue to be negative on the medium term outlook for now. Gold finished slightly negative on the futures and came back from the worst levels of the day. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares got slammed, with the XAU losing 8 3/4 and GDX shedding 2 points. Volume was good to the downside and the up trend line for GDX was broken. Not completely oversold for GDX but I will most likely put in an order for the May calls overnight. However the fundamentals for gold are pretty negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around and was higher today. The picture there has changed as the short term indicators have turned back up. The VIX did not make it back to the support line this time around. Not sure where it goes from here. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a mixed bag today as the Dow gained 249 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The S&P 500 was slightly lower but the NASDAQ fell by more than 1%. The S&P remains below its 200 day moving average. Earnings are now in the drivers seat for market action either way. We do get some more Fedspeak tomorrow though. The technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to move higher. We're still hoping for a rise to the down trend line there in order to get short. Gold ended the day flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX made it back to mid-range but not completely oversold. This has been the pattern for the past two months. The option premiums are high with the extra week in the May cycle or perhaps I'd give the GDX May call trade a try right here. Buyers for the gold shares continue to show up. However I've decided to hold off for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it approaches the support trend line in effect since last year. The short term indicators are declining which implies higher stock prices going forward. We'll have some decisions to make if the VIX reaches the support line. Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A rally springs up out of nowhere as the Dow soared 499 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to move sideways. Some short covering today to be sure as there was no news to speak of to cause buyers to suddenly appear. The S&P 500 is still oversold but not extremely. Perhaps this is the beginning of a move that takes us back to the down trend line that has been in effect since January. That is the set up that we're looking for. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow. Gold slumped $35 on the futures. The US dollar continued higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 4 1/4, while GDX slid 1 1/8. Volume was average. The gold shares need a rest. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. Hopefully we'll get to a fully oversold condition which would set us up for the GDX May calls. GDX now sits on an up trend line that began in February. Another day like today will break that line. We'll keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but failed to close below its 200 day moving average. Trend line support remains in place. The VIX also remains above the 20 level. Not getting a good feel for what is going on there. Today we had a good across the board rally for the major stock indices. How long it lasts is another question. Volume hasn't been all that great lately. So we'll see where it goes. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the after hours headlines.

The market tried to rally today but failed again as the Dow fell 39 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trending lower. My thinking is that we are due for some kind of bounce or rally here but the market will go where it wants. Plenty of bearishness around so it would not be a surprise to start heading the other way. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold along with the other major stock averages. Not a lot of economic data out this week but we will have some Fedspeak. 1st quarter earnings get started as well. On the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold rose $7 on the futures today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX were both flat on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought. Waiting on a pullback here in order to try the May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be signaling higher stock prices in the near term. The trendline support at 19 is still in place. If we could get back to that line on the VIX along with a light volume rally in the S&P to around the 4600 level, it would set us up for the May SPY puts. For now we'll have to be patient. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We ended the week on a sour note as the Dow fell 113 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up but hasn't been successful. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and back below its 50 day moving average. Earnings season is beginning and perhaps that can get things going positive again. However with the Fed raising rates and cutting off the easy money it could be tough sledding for stocks going forward. The down trend line for the S&P 500 comes in at 4600. If we can somehow make it back to there the SPY May puts would be the play. There's an extra week in the May option cycle so premiums will be higher than usual. Gold dropped almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. There seems to always be buyers for the gold shares lately. GDX remains both short and medium term overbought. Hoping for some type of pullback in order to try the calls there again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and bounced off of its 200 day moving average. It looks like it could go either way from here. For now we are going to stick with our longer term market view that prices will be going lower. Inflation does not appear to be going away and rates are on the rise. The Russia/Ukraine conflict drags on. We'll keep our eyes on the potential inverse head and shoulders patterns that appear on many of the major stock indice charts. But I still hold on to the view that they won't pan out. We'll have a long weekend to try and figure out what to do next. But with higher option premiums we'll probably remain on the sidelines next week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.

The bounce that we've been waiting for finally showed up as the Dow gained 344 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index sideways. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside and that's a plus. The inflation data was high but the market shrugged it off. That's another positive. The S&P 500 is short term oversold. I'm expecting more upside in the near term. Option expiration is tomorrow with the Friday holiday. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 2/3, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was average. The gold shares remain short term overbought and are now above the upper Bollinger band. There has been however no sustained selling here and that bodes well for the bulls. I'm looking to purchase the GDX May calls when we see some gold share weakness. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are rolling over. It will be interesting to see what happens if we make it back down to the support line here that has been in effect since November. That could again set things up for the SPY puts. Or not. We have plenty of potential head and shoulders reversal patterns on the major stock indices. They would imply a trip back to new all time highs. I said before that I don't think these patterns will prove to be valid. Time will tell on that but I'm still a believer in lower stock prices for the medium term. We'll let the market show us the way. Europe and Asia were generally higher. We'll close out the shortened week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the market opend higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 87 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving down. The inflation data came in high as expected. The stock and bond markets rallied at the open. However stocks lost their momentum and rolled over for the rest of the day. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. Only 2 days left in this weeks trading. I'd expect some kind of bounce before the end of the week but who knows? I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold gained around $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. The XAU rose about 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3. The gold shares did drop from their best levels of the day. Volume was average. I adjusted the stop on my GDX April call order and it eventually got filled. It was a lousy exit to this trade that could have been worth more had I managed it better. I guess I just got greedy. The gain was 160%. The gold shares remain short term overbought but I still like the calls again if we ever do get oversold. Mentally I'm disappointed that the GDX trade didn't go as good as it could have. I should have locked in a bigger profit. But as always that trade is done and it doesn't matter now. You've got to keep moving forward in the game. The VIX was a little lower today and is short term overbought. It too says some kind of bounce is imminent. That doesn't mean it will happen though. The market tried to rally today and failed. We'll see how it reacts to the producer prices tomorrow. Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of China and Hong Kong. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Lower to begin the week as the Dow lost 413 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower. We opened with a gap down and never recovered. Probably selling in front of what promises to be a high consumer inflation number tomorrow. Producer prices are due out on Wednesday. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and closed below its 50 day moving average. The NASDAQ led the way down today and that is not a plus. Anything goes tomorrow including a good drop or a short covering rally. Only 3 trading days left in the week. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures but finished well off of the highs for the session. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was light. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the gold shares as they opened higher and closed lower. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative for the bulls. I'm still in the GDX April call trade which is still positive for now. GDX is touching the upper Bollinger band and short term overbought. The daily chart is also forming a rising wedge pattern that is usually bearish. I should probably already be out of this trade but I now may hold it until Wednesdays producer prices. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around and moved higher. The short term indicators are getting overbought. On Friday the VIX looked like it was implying more buying for stocks but did a complete turnaround. The market goes where it wants. Who knows, maybe the CPI won't be so bad. But I doubt it. Asia was lower and Europe finished slightly down. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Back and forth was the name of the game today and the Dow ended with a gain of 137 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P is hanging around its 200 day moving average and is getting short term oversold. Waiting on the inflation data due out on Tuesday. Option expiration week is on tap and it's also a short week with a Friday holiday. I'm not exactly sure where the S&P goes from here. On the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher earlier. Interest rates rose. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume remains light here. GDX is right at the breakout level but we'll need to see a pick up in volume to get through there. Getting short term overbought for GDX as well. My thinking is that the gold shares will break out to the upside on Tuesdays inflation report. My GDX April calls are in the black. The risk of holding this trade increases with each passing day as time is running out on the April options. However I'm inclined to hold this trade until Tuesday at this point. I'll ponder what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today but the overall market was down. Hanging around the 200 day moving average here and the short term indicators appear to be rolling back down. This imples higher prices coming up for stocks. We'll see. I'll be going over the charts the next couple of days and getting ready for expiration week. The market is still at the mercy of headline risk. Europe and Asia had gains to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A reprieve from the recent selling today as the Dow gained 87 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. After selling for the early part of the session, stocks made it back to plus territory. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up here. The TRAN has stopped its freefall and there appears to be a bullish hammer now on the daily candlestick chart there. There's also a small hammer on the NASDAQ daily chart but it was the underperformer today. It looks like most of the major averages are trying to hang in at their 50 day moving averages. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume is still light for the gold shares as there is not much interest here still. My GDX April calls gained some ground. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up. If that is successful then the GDX call trade will be successful as well. I'm trying to hold this trade until Tuesdays inflation data is out. Only 5 days left in the April option cycle as next Friday is a holiday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the daily candlestick chart here is implying a lower VIX in the coming sessions. The short term technical indicators are mid-range. Option expiration week is almost upon us and right now the market has the feeling that the positive bias will show up. But that's just a guess and hasn't happened yet. We're still at the mercy of headline risk as the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict is not going away. My thinking on the GDX trade is that inflation will be high and money will flow into gold. Of course the technical set up there is more important and I'm hoping for a break out above 40 before option expiration. We'll see. Asia and Europe were both lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

More selling today as the Dow fell 144 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has stopped moving up and turned lower today. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus for the bulls. The TRAN continues to drop straight down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down and are moving lower. There's still room to go before getting short term oversold. The Fed is scaling back the easy money and the market needs time to get used to that. Liquidity is the issue. You may start to hear about a potential head and shoulders bottom being put in on the S&P daily chart. I don't think it will be valid if it does occur. Gold finished flat on the futures after moving both up and down. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range. I did decide to place an order for the GDX April calls today. It was filled when the gold shares dropped after the release of the Fed minutes. This is a risky ordeal with only 6 days left in the April option cycle. It is showing a small profit. Ideally I'd like to hold this trade until the inflation data due out next Tuesday. However it may get stopped out before then or I may simply decide to sell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher but closed down from its best levels of the session. The short term indicators here are pointing up. Not sure where it goes from here but the trendline from last November is now still in place. If it holds I'm pretty sure that we won't be going back up to set new all time highs in the stock market anytime soon. But time will tell on that. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We moved lower today as the Dow fell 280 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up but another day like today would change that. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a plus for the bears this time around. Todays price action turns the short term indicators down for the S&P 500 but we're still more overbought than oversold. Not exactly sure where we're headed from here. The Fed minutes tomorrow may provide a reason to buy or sell. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. The TRAN continues to drop hard. Gold was off about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and broke out to a new recent high. Interest rates moved higher yet again. The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX dropped 7/8. Volume was average. The short term technical indicators for GDX have rolled over and they have room to go lower. However any recent selling in GDX has been met with buyers and I'm wondering if that will be the case this time around. I may try the GDX April calls here but I'll have to go over things tonight before I decide. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped back above 20 and its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators are beginning to rise but remain oversold. After breaking the trendline from November yesterday the VIX has moved right back above it. So that was a possible false break. We'll know if it was in the coming sessions if we remain above the line. That would spell trouble for stocks with more selling. But we'll have to wait and see what happens. It is a caution sign to be sure. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Positive to begin the trading week as the Dow gained 103 points on average volume. The advance /declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ had a good day and led the way higher. That's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent day as well and remains short term overbought. Not a lot of data out this week. We'll get the Fed minutes on Wednesday and that seems to be most interesting report at this point. We'll see if today was the beginning of another leg up as the week goes on. Gold added $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were generally steady. The XAU was off almost a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. I'm still interested in the GDX calls but it remains short term overbought. Any selling in the gold shares does attract buying though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and broke the support line that had been in effect since November. This indicator is saying higher prices are coming despite the extended short term oversold condition in the VIX. If this is true perhaps we are going back to set new all time highs. It has been quite a turnaround for the stock market and right now the technical indicators are saying we're going higher. Europe and Asia were higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back and forth to close out the trading week as the Dow gained 139 points on average volume. The advance/declines wwere positive. The summation index is moving higher. The jobs report came in where expected with buyers and sellers taking turns with the price action. The Dow was the leader to the upside. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but perhaps a temporary bottom is in place on the daily charts. The TRAN got clobbered today and that may be something to keep an eye on. The NASDAQ remains below its 200 day moving average. Gold fell $25 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The gold shares rallied with the XAU up 4 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume is still light here but you cannot argue with price. Gold down and the gold shares up is bullish. Short term overbought for the gold shares. Any selling here though is immediately met with buyers. Is there still a chance to try the GDX April calls with less than 2 weeks to go in the April option cycle? Perhaps but being overbought presents some risk to be sure. Also if a cease-fire were to occur in the Russia/Ukraine conflict there would most likely be a rush to the exits. I'll consider the possibilities over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below 20. Still short term oversold and the up trend line from November remains intact for now. Not sure where the VIX is headed from here and I'm not about to guess. I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with some sort of game plan for next week. My thinking is that the market will move up from here in the short term but who knows? Some economic data due out next week but nothing on inflation. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.