A lot of hanging around on expiration Friday as the Dow rose 64 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were lower.  The summation index continues down.  The daily charts for the major stock indices remain oversold.  The weekly chart indicators have all rolled over as well.  RUT is already challenging its recent lows and another day like today will break them.  The daily VIX chart looks like it wants to spike up again.  We're rolling into the November option cycle and the premiums are high.  At this rate for price movement the next signal will be a buy if we continue lower into next week.  But it feels like the market is in a precarious state of affairs at the moment.  GE was up almost twenty cents again and the volume remains heavy.  Gold finished little changed and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market tried to stabilize this week and it at least did that.  But it was because of one huge upside session and it hasn't done anything since.  In down trends rallies appear out of nowhere and that day certainly qualifies for that.  The next thing to watch is what happens if we test the recent lows.  If things hold up we are probably out of the woods for now.  If not, we'll have to see how low it goes.  A 10% correction on the SPY would take us to 264.  We're at 276 now.  We have crossed through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator and the summation index.  The zero line on the oscillator has proved to be resistance thus far.  Getting above that line would be a plus for the bulls and would start to turn things positive once again.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Ideally I'd like to see a lower low for price with a higher oscillator reading for a positive divergence.  The recent low for the McClellan oscillator was -294.  I do think that we'll stay above that level going forward but I've been wrong before.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with something.  I'm hopeful that some kind of valid trading signal will appear in the coming days.  But I'll try not to push things.  Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back down today as the Dow fell 327 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index tried to turn around but it is now heading lower.  I suppose the next thing to look for here is a lower price with a higher reading in the McClellan oscillator.  That would set up a but signal for the SPY November calls.  But we have to remember that we've breached the zero line in the summation index.  Which means we could simply continue to travel lower.  Right now things aren't setting up as I had hoped so I'll remain on the sidelines for now.  We'll get expiration tomorrow and take it from there.  GE was up almost twenty cents on good volume.  Gold was up a buck or so and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility is the name of the game again.  It makes for tougher trading decisions.  The VIX didn't make it back down to 15 before spiking up again.  But that is the level that I'm looking for in order to try the SPY puts.  I may have to adjust my thinking there.  Perhaps today started the process of retesting the recent lows.  It certainly looks that way with regards to RUT.  Since RUT has been the leader here, keep your eyes on it.  It is short term oversold and the technical indicators have just rolled over from a low level.  We'll have to wait and see if there is any downside follow through tomorrow.  The S&P 500 is still trying to hold on to the 200 day moving average.  The next few trading session should tell the story there.  There's money to be made in this environment if you're up to the task.  Europe and Asia were both down last night.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow as we close out another trading week.

Up and down today as the Dow lost 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving lower but not at the rate it was.  I do believe that it is trying to turn around here just below the zero line.  The Fed minutes caused a brief sell off but nothing more.  Two days to go in the October option cycle and I will wait until next week to attempt the next trade.  If we stay up until Monday or Tuesday, I'll be trying the SPY November puts.  If we drop before then, I'll be looking for a positive divergence in the McClellan oscillator.  I'll also consider getting short when and if the VIX gets back to 15.  That's the game plan going forward as of today.  GE was up almost a dime but off of its best levels of the day.  Volume remains heavy.  Gold fell a few bucks as the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX showed slight fractional losses on average volume.  The gold shares are holding up for a change.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets are trying to calm down after last weeks extreme volatility.  So far so good.  Option premiums for next month are higher than usual due to the volatility.  Combine that with the time premium and the timing of the next trade will have to be precise.  There most likely be a retest of the recent lows and that will be the trade that I'm looking for.  From what level the retest begins is the question that needs to correctly answered.  We also have to see if the McClellan oscillator can make it above the zero line in the near future as well.  So as usual there are plenty of questions that need to be answered.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights overseas market action.

A huge move up from a deeply oversold condition as the Dow soared 547 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here just through the zero line.  It looks like it will make it but we'll see by the end of the week.  Buying the SPY calls yesterday showed nice profits today.  If I was inclined, I would buy the SPY October puts tomorrow on any strength but it's just probably too risky for me.  This was a rally out of nowhere that I was looking for last week.  It looks like most of the major stock indices have held their 200 day moving averages for now.  But RUT led us down and is still below its 200 day.  It foreshadowed the rally today with yesterdays positive action.  I'd keep a close eye on it for clues going forward.  I do not think that we're heading back to new all time highs anywhere soon but I could be wrong.  Let's see how the rest of the week plays out.  GE was off a nickel and volume was pretty heavy.  Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned lower and the short term technical indicators have turned down as well.  We'll see what happens when it get back to the 200 day moving average at around the 15 level.  That would be the spot to try the SPY puts again if you're so inclined.  I may or may not.  We'll get the Fed minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  If the VIX somehow gets down to 15 before the Fed minutes, I'll try the SPY puts for a short term trade.  I doubt that will happen but you never know.  Todays move in the market was impressive but I've seen this happen before.  On the plus side the summation index is trying to turn around.  However todays gains were from an extremely oversold condition, with short covering occurring at the same time.  So any follow through will have to be watched closely.  It does appear that my five wave down theory was wrong though.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

A lot of back and forth today but when we closed the Dow was off 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower and is through the zero line.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but RUT did close higher.  I thought about trades both ways today but I think that the wise thing to do here would be to let this expiration week pass and go from there.  Volatility was less today and the short term technical indicators here have rolled over.  But that doesn't mean we couldn't see a spike at some point this week and a drop in prices.  I'll try not to attempt a trade this week unless there is a valid signal.  At this rate I doubt we'll get one.  GE was off over 1/8 as volume contracted but is still above average.  Gold added eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was good.  The daily GDX chart shows a valid head and shoulders bottom with a breakout.  If we wander back to the neckline at 19, that would be the spot to try the GDX calls.  I'm keeping an eye on it as that could be the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Completely oversold on the short term technical indicators for most of the major averages.  That doesn't mean that we can't stay that way as the chart of RUT proves that.  But I have to believe that we're getting to some kind of washout point here within the next few days.  Look for heavy volume and you'll know that we're there.  I do think that we'll be choppy now for a while as big breaks usually work out that way.  I'm not looking for any new all time highs.  What we are seeing now could be a repeat of a week ago when the market sold off a bit but did not bounce.  If so we'll soon see lower prices and perhaps a completion of the five wave down pattern that appears to be forming on the S&P 500.  If that is the case a look at the calls before the end of the week could be in order.  But we haven't figured out anything just yet.  As always, the market will go where it wants.  Asia sold off again and Europe was slightly higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading. 

Finally some upside to finish out the week as the Dow rose 287 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down and through the zero line.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  But the breadth remains weak and I don't think we are out of the woods just yet.  I canceled my open order for the SPY October calls.  With only a week to go any trade here would be very risky as time and the volatility premium will be sucked out on both sides of the options.  That doesn't mean that I won't attempt a trade next week.  It does mean that if I do it will have to be lined up pretty good.  The VIX looks like it has topped out here in the short term.  Of course it looked like that three days ago as well.  RUT may have put in a bottom today and if that is the case we'll stop the decline for now.  But we'll have to see how it goes in the beginning of next week too.  GE dropped 3/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold dropped six bucks as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume.  They did finish well off of the lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a week for stocks and missing the SPY puts here was painful.  But the truth of the matter is the market doesn't care and keeps on going.  The bounce today was weak and I would not be surprised to see another leg down to complete a five wave pattern for the S&P 500 hourly chart.  But that's a guess as usual.  Maybe somewhere in the 2675 area.  What I don't expect is a run back up to new all time highs anytime soon.  Probably the best course of action here will be to wait for a valid signal and trade it either way.  Looking back when the market has behaved like this in the recent past, shows a sideways trading pattern for at least a few months.  That is probably what we can expect here.  We are beginning a positive seasonal area for the stock market but you wouldn't know that looking at the past week.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

No buyers just yet as the Dow fell 545 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is driving down lower and we are about to pass through the zero line, hence the falling apart.  The S&P 500 has now closed below its 200 day moving average.  RUT continues to drop below its 200 day so the selling probably isn't completely done yet.  Oversold, staying that way and that is about all you can say.  I did try the SPY October calls today but my order wasn't filled and I could be early as well.  This is a very risky trade at this point because we are heading straight down.  I do see that the futures are coming back after the close though.  I did leave in an open order for some of the SPY October calls but I'll consider what to do here overnight.  A bounce is way overdue but I don't expect any long lasting rally at this point.  We are as oversold as we've been since the drop in the beginning of the year.  GE was off 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Gold got the flight to safety today as the futures climbed over $30.  The XAU jumped 4 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4.  Volume was extremely heavy.  Looks like another missed trade here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Both big and small caps are now below their 200 day moving averages.  RUT has led the way here folks and it is far below its 200 day.  There will be more downside in the weeks to come at this rate.  However the extreme oversold short term condition should lend its way for a profitable call trade before expiration.  The problem here will be the timing, which will have to spot on.  This trade may be too late as well, with the positive futures after the bell.  But we are overdone to the downside in my opinion.  Crazy week so far and we just have to get through Friday now.  Asia and Europe got crushed as well overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.   

The market fell apart today as the Dow got clobbered and lost 831 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is falling rapidly.  We are approaching the zero line in the summation index and that is the crash zone.  It appears like we're already there after today price action.  Oversold and staying there as the market has no buyers.  RUT is well below its 200 day moving average and has led us lower.  The TRAN sliced through its 200 day moving average as well.  I tried to get the SPY October puts but failed.  In retrospect, I should have just gotten some on the first drop last week but just wasn't quick enough again.  Of course I did not expect the drop to occur so quickly this week.  We never did get a bounce back to get short.  I'm now looking at the SPY October calls for a bounce as we are way overdone to the downside.  This could simply be a catch the falling knife attempt but some of the technical indicators are so blown out that the market has to find a bit of relief.  I think that weakness tomorrow can be bought but I'm not exactly sure from what level.  The S&P 500 is at the near term support right now.  Of course staying on the sidelines is a choice here as well.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  Not a real flight to safety here yet.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls if and when it gets oversold on a daily basis.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I waited for this decline to take shape yet do not own any SPY puts.  However I do feel now that we are in a sell the rally market.  I also think that the original thesis of the bull market being over with the A-B-C-D-E rally from the 2009 lows is now in place.  RUT has broken its up trend line from the 2016 lows and the S&P 500 did the same today.  The TRAN as well.  We'll have to see where we close out the week on those but if the RUT is already far away from that line, the others should follow.  The Dow has yet to break that up trend from 2016.  Today did seem like a panic though, so a bounce could be in the offing soon.  Whether or not I give the calls a try is the question.  So we've entered a crazy time in October again.  It's usually a good buying opportunity longer term.  But we can't say where the ultimate low will be just yet.  If the bull market is over, buying here won't matter because there will be lower prices coming down the road.  The volume today was about 10 to 1 negative and that could be a blow off to the downside in the short term.  We'll have to see how the market opens tomorrow and go from there.  The 200 day moving average for the SPY comes in at 274.  That would be a spot to try the SPY October calls if you so desire.  I may take a shot there myself.  We'll see.  Overseas market were weak.  The trading tonight could get ugly.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.     

Still waiting for a bounce as the Dow fell 56 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Oversold now and staying there as the market has a definite lack of buyers.  The NASDAQ did manage to eek out a small gain but it wasn't anything the bulls can be proud of.  The VIX had another spike and retreat.  This indicator looks like it will head back down and that could produce a bounce or rally if it occurs.  Hasn't happened yet.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY October puts.  But as I said before this may simply be another missed trade.  I'm still looking for some kind of short term upside but it isn't happening yet.  GE lost a few cents on heavy volume.  Gold rose almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU lost a point and GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  Weakness has taken over for sure.  But we are short term oversold and due for some upside.  The question is will that be the chance to get short or will it be the beginning of a new up trend?  The correct answer to that question will bring profits.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY October puts as time winds down in the October option cycle.  RUT is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average and what happens there will be telling.  I'm expecting at least a bounce here as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see if we get some bounce tomorrow.   

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the small stocks heading lower by far.  I'm still interested in getting some SPY October puts on a snap back rally.  But the timing will have to be spot on.  Today feels like some kind of at least short term bottom in my view.  The VIX spiked up above 18, where past declines have stopped in the past few months.  If we do see some upside tomorrow, perhaps Wednesday will be the day to try the puts.  The bond market was closed today so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold at the 50 day moving average and the short term technical indicators are trying to turn back up.  RUT is holding on to its 200 day moving average for now as well.  The question here being is this the end of the decline or simply a spot for a dead cat bounce?  I'm guessing it's the latter.  But the market will go where it wants and could continue to decline tomorrow.  GE has had quite a turnaround and was up 3/8 on very heavy volume.  Gold dropped over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains after being lower much of the session.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have shown good relative strength vs. gold lately and that is a plus for the  precious metal bulls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So here we are with today possibly being the opportunity to try the SPY calls for a bounce trade.  It is simply too late now to attempt this idea.  Because if it is just a bounce, it won't last long.  That is what I'm counting on with respect to attempting the SPY October puts.  If we rally from here into sometime on Wednesday, I will try the SPY put trade.  If not it will be back to the drawing board.  I am of the belief that the market will run lower into the expiration a week from Friday but not without some upside first.  If that is correct we should see some positive prices action in the indices tomorrow.  If not, all bets are off.  Obviously the ideal time for the SPY puts has passed.  But that doesn't mean a profitable trade there can't happen with good timing from here.  We'll just have to see where the market goes from here.  One drawback is that time is not as plentiful as it was for the October option cycle.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll look for some upside in US equities tomorrow.

Still to the downside as the market is oversold and staying there.  The Dow fell 180 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator should be in the minus 200 level or so.  A bounce is due.  I would use that bounce to establish a short position as I believe that we are not done with the selling by any means.  The S&P 500 did hold on to its 50 day moving average but the short term technical indicators are not completely oversold yet.  The RUT bounced off of its 200 day moving average and is very oversold.  Could things hold up here?  Perhaps but I don't think so.  What I'd look for is a rally next week out of nowhere of about 200 points on the Dow.  Rallies from nowhere are hallmarks of a down trend.  Such a rally would give you a chance to purchase some index puts for the next move lower.  If the rally lasted more than a couple of days you would know that the scenario wouldn't work.  I'll be looking for such a rally.  GE bucked the tend again and gained 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The jobs report was a bit weaker than expected but it wasn't the market mover I thought it would be.  We just hung around after today open and then started to fall.  The market did come off of its worst levels but the trend is clearly down.  The Dow was off 325 points intra-day.  The NASDAQ has broken below its 50 day moving average as well.  This is a move worth chasing in my humble opinion.  My work has been off here lately but I'm a firm believer that we'll most likely see lower prices going into the expiration in two weeks.  The trick will be to find a quick rally to establish a short position.  The market doesn't usually cooperate and it may not this time as well.  We could simply keep dropping.  If that is the case we'll simply have to change direction and look for a spot to get long.  But we certainly aren't there yet.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Europe and the Asian market that were open closed lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility made a comeback today as the Dow fell 200 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to the downside.  The McClellan oscillator should be blown out to the downside here, which would imply a bounce.  My work that indicated a bounce for the past couple of days was obviously wrong.  I tried to chase todays move lower but eventually just canceled my open SPY put orders.  That said, if we see some upside on the jobs report tomorrow, I'll be trying the SPY October puts.  However it could be that we've seen whatever decline was coming in todays price action and that would be it.  But I'm not betting on that scenario.  We were off 350 points at some point today during the session.  Overseas markets were weak and interest rates have risen.  Those were the excuses today but we've seen the weak, deteriorating technical situation unfold beforehand.  The ideal time to purchase the SPY puts has passed but that doesn't mean that we still can't make some money to the downside.  We'll see.  GE managed a gain of over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was flat on the session, with the US dollar a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on OK volume.  The gold shares are holding up well and the GDX calls are a buy the next time they get oversold in my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Rut has led the way lower and continues to do so today.  The technical indicators here are oversold and staying that way.  This is a condition that won't stay that way forever.  Two weeks and a day left for the October option cycle.  The game plan now is this: any strength tomorrow can be shorted and we'll go from there.  I'll be looking at the SPY October puts and will purchase something if we get a pop to the upside.  Early negative action will be harder to trade and if that occurs I may just have to sit things out until next week.  I'll have to see the numbers tonight and go from there.  Usually when we get a shock like today there's more to come.  But that doesn't guarantee more downside, it just puts the odds of it in your favor.  So we'll see what the employment report looks like and the markets reaction to it.  Interest rates are very overbought here as well and that condition won't last forever either.  Asia and Europe sold off too.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow. 

We had some good gains early on but the market dropped in the final couple of hours.  The Dow did manage a gain of 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Not exactly sure what is going on here.  No doubt due for some upside in my opinion and on my work but we aren't seeing any.  RUT had some upside but we're still pretty oversold there.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY October puts again.  If we see some strength tomorrow, I may just purchase them.  If not I'll wait for the employment report and go from there.  The market is acting kind of strange here in my opinion.  I get the feeling that it could fall off of a cliff.  The weak breadth, narrow Dow leadership and lack of being able to hold on to any gains intra-day is a concern.  I could also make a case that the S&P 500 could hit new all time highs in the next few days as well despite all the negatives.  Interesting times.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interest rates ticked up today and perhaps that was the reason that the Dow sold off from an early 175 point gain.  We now have a potential negative RSI divergence on the daily Dow chart.  My work called for some rally here but the market just cannot hold on to any of its gains.  The summation index is heading lower but we haven't seen that reflected in price with the exception of RUT.  So I'm in kind of a quandary as to what to do next.  All signs to me really point to lower prices here eventually, so I'll probably just stick to my SPY put plan.  Over two weeks to go in the October option cycle so even if I am a bit early by purchasing them tomorrow it should work out if we indeed do drop.  But we've had plenty of chances already to fall.  Never easy in this game.  Asia was a bit lower and Europe higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

Yet another mixed bag today as the Dow gained 122 points while the rest of the market was lower.  Volume was about average and the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks are moving down led by RUT.  My thinking is that the big caps will follow but not before some upside first.  That's my guess at the moment.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY October puts.  The S&P 500 has tried to rally the past couple of sessions but has been held back each time.  We are close to new all time highs here but it certainly doesn't feel like it.  I'm still looking for some strength in the next couple of days but after that who knows?  So far the breakdown in RUT hasn't carried over to the overall market.  This isn't the norm.  The TRAN looks to be rolling over here as well, in a divergence with the Dow.  There is a lot of negative signs for the market despite the headline Dow new highs.  We'll see what transpires as the week progresses.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was very heavy.  Gold found a bid as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU added 1 7/8, while GDX climbed 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  It appears that the gold share trade has been missed.  There was a glaring positive RSI divergence at the beginning of September that I did not take advantage of.  After just getting wiped out with the same GDX call trade, I did not try that idea again.  Just another mistake of the many so far this year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm going to have to keep a close eye on my open order out there because we are at a point where I do believe some upside is overdue.  If that happens it would be the set up for the SPY October put trade.  That is the idea for now.  There is nothing that says it won't be the start of a new leg up in the S&P either.  But I have harped on this before, the breadth doesn't support higher prices at this point.  The market is narrow, with fewer stocks leading the way higher right now.  But the market has a way of doing what it wants.  So keeping a close eye on what is about to happen is imperative.  Plenty of time in the October option cycle as well.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

We had a big rally early but it faded during the day.  The Dow did manage a nice gain of 192 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were negative though, with the NASDAQ posting a loss.  The summation index continues lower.  RUT sank below its 50 day moving average.  The VIX remains oversold.  My work indicates some upside this week but I did place an order that I left open for the SPY October puts.  I will have to adjust this overnight.  I'm not exactly sure what's going on with the market right here.  The Dow in the lead is usually a late in the uptrend event.  The breakdown in the RUT is troubling as it is usually the leader.  The breadth has been terrible lately and certainly not what you would normally see today with a rise in the Dow of almost 200 points.  So I'm cautious at the moment.  GE was up over 3/4 on the heaviest volume that I've seen there.  The CEO got fired today and the market enjoyed that.  Gold lost a couple bucks while the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Here we are in the month of October.  It's known for some wild events and we'll have to see if we see that again this time around.  It's also a good time to put money to work longer term.  The seasonality turns positive for the market in this month.  As you know we've got the jobs report this Friday and that will be the focus eventually this week.  The rally today was based on a deal for NAFTA.  I don't know if that will have any market staying power.  Todays price action was a one day reversal to the downside for the NASDAQ.  The fact that the S&P 500 couldn't hold on to its gains as well isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I do think that we'll see some more upside at some point this week though.  That's what my work is indicating.  But there's no guarantees in this business.  I'll look things over again tonight.  Asia was mixed with some markets closed last night.  Europe was higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

It was a day of nothing much as the Dow rose 18 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  No direction today to close out the month of September.  The big cap short term indicators are trying to turn around.  The small caps remain slightly overbought with the exception of RUT which is oversold.  I cancelled my open order for the SPY October puts.  No need to have it out there over the weekend.  At the rate we're going I may switch over to the SPY calls.  Next week will feature the employment report but that's not until Friday.  I'm thinking that perhaps we'll see some beginning of the month money flows early.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume remains good.  Gold gained $8 and the US dollar was a bit higher too.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summation index has been heading lower but we really haven't seen much of a decline.  The last time this happened it set the market up for a short term rally.  Could that be the case this time as well?  That's the question here really but I certainly don't have an answer.  At this point I'm in the camp that things could go either way.  I will look things over this weekend and try to make up my mind as of what to do next.  There is still plenty of time in the October option cycle to attempt a trade.  The VIX remains below its 50 day moving average and is in a zone where we should see a rally but that has happened either.  Like I said, I'll have to look at the charts this weekend and try to determine the next course of action here.  Asia was generally higher as was Europe in overnight trade.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stumbling around here or so it seems as the Dow gained 54 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The market once again could not hold on to the early gains that it made intra-session.  This certainly isn't positive price action but we haven't completely broken down yet.  The VIX made it back below its 50 day moving average but it doesn't feel like it will stay there.  We'll get the end of the month tomorrow with squaring of positions.  I would not be surprised to see more selling to lock in gains.  But that's a guess as usual.  To me this seems like a grind lower and that isn't the worst thing in the world.  I am leaving my open order for the SPY October puts out there but I doubt that it will be filled.  GE was up another 1/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold dropped a dozen as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  the gold shares are now out performing the metal itself and that is a good sign for the bulls.  I'm keeping an eye out on the GDX January calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The triple Q's and the NDX are just about to reach new all time highs.  The RUT remains below its 50 day moving average.  Big cap indices are stalling below their records.  It is quite a mixed picture.  So much so that it's easy to really make a case for either way here.  But with the summation index trending down we have to respect that.  Once again I'll say that the breadth has been weak lately and that is not a plus.  So I will just have to keep watching and waiting for now.  I suppose we'll let tomorrow pass and take it from there.  Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 106 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The Fed came out, we got a rally and then fell apart in the final hour.  My open order for the SPY October puts did not get filled and it is too late now.  The VIX jumped and it closed above the 50 day moving average.  RUT finally closed below its 50 day moving average.  There is little doubt in my mind that we're heading lower.  The short term technical indicators for the big caps have all rolled over now.  The small stocks have bearish dojis on the daily candlestick charts.  GE was actually up 1/8 on heavy volume.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU shed 1 3/4, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares look like they are starting to roll over here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated.  I suppose I should have adjusted my open order when we started to rally but hindsight is never wrong.  You have to be able to make the adjustments in the moment.  I wasn't able to do that.  I don't think that I'll get another opportunity for this trade now.  We will probably just head lower from here.  The price action today was a one day reversal to the downside.  With RUT breaking support, unless we see a dramatic turnaround back to the upside tomorrow, this market is finally going to get some weakness that to me is long overdue.  This will occur despite a drop in interest rates but that drop could be due to a flight to safety.  So where do we go from here?  I guess I'll just have to wait for the next signal to show up but that could take a while.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag again today as the Dow fell about 70 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the plus.  The VIX remains under its 50 day moving average but is oversold and could turn back up at any time.  Today was a waiting game as expected, with the real moves coming tomorrow after the Fed.  I do have my open order for the SPY October puts still out there but at this rate it won't get filled.  The time to try this idea may have already passed if we simply continue lower from here.  Overbought on the big caps with the short term technical indicators rolling over.  I think that we're going to head lower.  GE dropped 1/2 on extremely heavy volume.  This issue used to be a leader but it isn't anymore.  At least it hasn't been lately.  Not even a member of the Dow anymore and that doesn't help.  Not exactly sure what it means but the old industrial stocks just ain't what they used to be.  Gold and the US dollar both didn't do much today.  Same for the XAU and GDX.  Volume here was a bit lighter.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All eyes and ears will be on the Fed tomorrow.  It appears that a rate hike of 1/4 point is coming.  Everybody is aware of that.  I guess we'll move off of what chairman Powell says in his speech afterwards.  Which way is the question.  I'm going to leave my open order out there and adjust as we move forward.  Rates have risen lately but the market doesn't seem to be affected.  Once we get tomorrows news perhaps we'll see some relief buying.  Or not.  It's all just a guess from me.  The technical indicators remain overbought for the most part but we haven't been able to rise above the zero line in the McClellan oscillator.  The TRAN has gone down in the short term along with the Dow.  RUT remains above its 50 day moving average and is more oversold than overbought.  There really is no clear picture or signal as to what happens next.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow.

We begin the last week of September on a downer as the Dow fell 181 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This moves the summation index back down.  We also didn't make it through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator.  The McClellan oscillator did give off a signal for a big move within the next two days on Friday.  Today fulfills that signal.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow though with the NASDAQ posting a small gain.  I still have my open order for the SPY October puts out there.  I may have to adjust it again though.  We should be on a waiting game until the Fed announcement on Wednesday from here.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was extremely heavy.  We've broken down below the recent lows here.  Gold was slightly higher and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight moves on average volume.  A positive report on gold and the gold shares this weekend in Barrons provided a pop early but it faded as the day went on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX made it to its 50 day moving average but was turned away.  Still short term oversold here.  The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but I'm hoping for one more run at new all time highs to establish the SPY put position.  That could just be wishful thinking on my part.  We could easily just keep heading lower here.  RUT remains above its 50 day moving average and the short term technicals here are oversold.  With RUT usually being a leader, I'm keeping a close eye on what happens here.  1700 is the level to watch in my view.  Is it possible the market starts to rally from here?  Anything is possible in this game.  It might be a good idea to wait for the Fed before establishing any new positions.  So we'll see.  The Asian markets that were open finished lower.  Europe lost some ground as well.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag on expiration Friday but eh Dow did gain 86 points on triple witching very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index has started to move sideways.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY October puts again.  The big caps are overbought on the short term technical indicators.  The small stocks are not.  They have been lagging lately and that is one of my concerns.  The McClellan oscillator has made it to the zero line.  What happens here is important.  If we break through to the upside, we could see some decent move higher for stocks.  If we're turned back here, perhaps the market isn't so ready to move forward.  The VIX remains under 12 but it is oversold.  I'm sticking with my plan for the SPY puts for now.  GE was off almost 1/3 on heavy volume.  It looks like it wants to challenge the recent lows.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  The gold shares are holding up rather well lately and that is a plus.  It appears that the opportunity to try the longer term calls here has passed.  Short term overbought here for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get some economic data in the coming week but the focus will be on the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Rates are expected to go up but all will be listening for other clues in the chairmans statement.  We'll just keep to the technical indicators and go from there.  A positive session on Monday will have another of my indicators at the overbought level.  Now the market can stay overbought for quite a while when it is in rally mode.  Hitting new all time highs is bullish as well.  I'm still concerned about the breadth because it has been awful lately.  I'm going to watch what happens with the McClellan oscillator and take my cues from there as well.  A burst higher there will cause me to cancel my open order for the SPY puts.  So it's watch and wait time once again.  Europe and Asia were higher on Friday and both finished with their best week in months.  Is money pouring back into stocks there or was it a dead cat bounce.  Time will tell on that.  I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

New all time highs in the Dow today as the most watched index soared 251 points on almost average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This could turn the summation index around.  Perhaps the run up that I didn't think was going to happen really is about to occur.  The VIX remains below 12 and the RUT had a pretty good day as well.  I'm not exactly convinced though, so I adjusted my SPY October put order to a higher strike price.  Some of my TRIN numbers are showing a very overbought condition.  But I can't rule out a melt up like we saw in January either.  I'll be keeping a very close eye on things going forward.  We are at least seeing a positive expiration week which is according to plan.  GE was down 40 cents on good volume.  Don't know what the story is there.  Gold was only up a few bucks despite a decent drop in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Is this the start of a new leg up is the question.  It seems the McClellan oscillator is saying so.  Especially if we see good breadth tomorrow and a high positive reading.  So maybe the market has digested the tariff tiff and is ready to move forward.  Or maybe we're just getting some triple expiration maneuvering.  Whatever the case, I should probably just let tomorrow pass and get ready for next week.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as well.  We'll see how the trading goes tonight. 

The rally lives on for the Dow as it rose 158 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Obviously the overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The small stocks are not leaders here with the RUT already oversold.  A Dow up over 150 with negative breadth isn't a strong sign for the bulls.  I did place another open order for the SPY October puts.  Again, it will take some rally to see this order get filled.  GE was up twenty cents on OK volume.  Gold rose $5 as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/3 on better than average volume.  It appears that gold has found a bottom here.  I am still looking at the GDX January calls on a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The leadership of the Dow here is usually a late cycle event for a rally.  Bad breadth and lack of the usual leadership is also a clue that the end of this up trend could be at hand.  There's also the possibility that we'll see the market break out to the upside with a decent move if the small stocks generate a turnaround here from the oversold short term technical condition.  I do not favor that scenario.  The breadth weakness and the lack of overall volume tells me different.  We should be able to hold up here during option expiration week.  But after that, who knows.  Overseas market are starting to act better, with both Asia and Europe higher last night.  The Dow still needs to do a little more work to hit a new all time high but it is in range with a couple hundred or more points.  The VIX is back below 12.  I really think that something has to give here sooner or later.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 184 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading lower though.  Todays price action does fit the parameters for the move telegraphed by the McClellan oscillator on Friday.  It is also options expiration week and in normal times that means a positive bias.  These are relatively normal times for the market.  We did finish well off of the highs for the session.  The broader market didn't fare as well as the Dow.  I canceled my open order for the SPY October puts.  I still like the idea but perhaps from higher levels.  GE dropped a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold dropped a couple bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight factional gains on average volume.  The gold shares have been acting better lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So on it goes.  No really good or bad news to trade off of.  The market seems to simply keep going up.  I am keeping an eye on the small stocks here because they are not leading us up this time around.  I'm also trying to remain patient because there is plenty of time left in the October option cycle.  The short term technical indicators are more overbought than oversold but not extremely so.  So for now it's watch and wait.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 92 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  We were short term overbought on one of my indicators but today will turn that around.  The other short term indicators have now rolled over as well.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I did place an open order for the SPY October puts but we'll need to see some upside for the order to be filled.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the right idea but I'll leave the order out there for now.  The McClellan oscillator did give a signal on Friday for a decent move and perhaps today qualifies.  GE was up a couple cents on average volume.  Gold rose a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was better than average.  It appears that gold and the gold shares have found a bottom.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not a good nights sleep.  The small stocks are back at their 50 day moving averages that have held all the recent declines.  There is also support off of the tops that were made during June through August.  So we should hold things here but if we don't, then you'll know we're in for a decent drop in equities.  It is option expiration week though and that usually means a positive bias.  But the market usually doesn't wait around when it wants to drop so the next couple of sessions should tell the story.  It may already be too late for the SPY puts.  There may still be time for the GDX calls going out into the future though.  The bounce here may just be starting.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A day of hanging around as the Dow added 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The VIX is back in oversold territory.  The TRAN set a new all time high.  Will the Dow follow?  Not completely overbought for stocks yet but we're getting there.  Options expiration week is straight ahead.  I'm not exactly sure what the next trade is but if we rally early in the week I'll probably try the SPY October puts.  But I'll look things over again on the weekend to be sure.  GE was up a few cents and volume picked up as well.  Gold fell ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  That's a plus or maybe these stocks are just sold out.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Buyers and sellers were about even today as retail sales were a bit weaker than expected.  We'll get some housing data next week but not much else.  If the McClellan oscillator can get back above the zero line next week perhaps this rally has legs.  If not maybe the sellers will try and take charge again.  Let me repeat that the breadth hasn't been all that good lately and the volume remains weak.  There's only five days left in the September option cycle, so any trading idea there has added risk.  I am looking at the longer term gold share calls as well but the fundamentals there only point to shorter time frame trades on the long side.  Higher rates are not conducive to rallies in gold.  I'm keeping an eye on RUT because it hasn't been acting good lately.  Breaking to a new all time high there would change that.  Otherwise I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there.  Asia was higher again and Europe finished on the plus side as well.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got the expected upside today as the Dow gained 147 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  I'm not exactly sure of what to make of things here.  RUT was lower and it's usually a leader.  The breadth on this slight rise hasn't been good.  Volume is anemic.  I am leaning towards trying the SPY October puts.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up but they aren't in the overbought zone just yet.  I suppose that I'll let Friday pass and figure out what to do over the weekend.  GE was up a dime and volume was a little better.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not sleeping well lately.  The inflation data was a bit less than expected but it didn't really affect the market.  Retail sales due out tomorrow.  We're at an interesting juncture here for the market and there is no clear cut case on which way things are going to go in my view.  The TRAN failed to follow through on its positive start to the week.  The small stocks are not exactly leading the way up here.  The VIX is back below its 50 day moving average.  Once again I'm not really a believer in this current move higher.  It certainly does not have the feel of the previous rallies.  However I will wait until next week to establish the next trade.  Asia rallied for a change but Europe was lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Another mixed bag today as the Dow added 27 points on almost average volume.  the advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Both the NASDAQ and RUT were negative today as the small stocks underperformed.  The market action has been sloppy lately.  However I do think that we will still see some short term upside here at the least.  There are some technical indicator levels that we've reached that have contained previous weakness in stocks.  It appears that they will hold once again but there are no guarantees of course in the game.  The beige book was a non event today.  GE was up over 1/4 but the volume was light.  Gold found buyers as the futures gained $8.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The gold shares finally had some rally.  The XAU gained 2 1/4, while GDX added 1/2.  Volume was good.  Perhaps this is the bottom for the gold shares.  I'm still looking at the GDX January calls but it may already be too late.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overseas markets have been dropping for a while and the US never did fall that much.  I think if we see any attempt at a rally in the Asian or emerging markets, it could help the bullish cause here.  That's a guess as usual.  The summation index is still moving lower and that must be respected.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have turned around.  So perhaps another run at new all time highs is in the cards.  But it certainly doesn't feel like a sustained rally is at hand.  We will have option expiration week upon us soon and the usual positive bias may lift us higher.  But the breadth lately hasn't been all that good and I'm thinking another run at the highs may set up another SPY put trade.  We'll see.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overseas last night.  I'm expecting an upside day tomorrow.

Getting an expected bounce as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  I certainly don't think that this is the start of some kind of extended rally.  Volume is light and the breadth is weak.  I was stopped out of my SPY September put trade for about a 40% loss.  I'm now debating on where to get back in.  I may give things another day or so but I do think that we are going to head lower.  I might go out to the SPY October puts but they are rather pricey.  The short term technical indicators on the major averages are trying to turn back up.  I'm not exactly sure if attempting the September puts again is the right choice.  GE lost 18 cents on light volume.  Gold was little changed as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished the day little changed as well.  I am looking at the GDX January calls.  The gold shares are blown out to the downside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another trading loss.  I simply stayed in that trade too long.  The market indicators are in the area that has held things up for the past few months.  Perhaps things will be steady through expiration before another downside move takes place.  That is simply a guess.  It's also possible that we just head back down from here because the volume says there is really no interest in stocks right now.  So perhaps the best course of action is inaction.  We'll see how the market reacts to the upcoming economic data and go from there.  We've got the beige book tomorrow as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.    

The Dow closed lower today s it fell 59 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was higher from the get go, with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher.  The TRAN had a very strong day and hit a new high.  The small stocks were up but it wasn't a move that inspires confidence.  I think we'll move higher tomorrow but after that I'm not so sure.  We are still more oversold than overbought on the short term technical indicators.  My SPY September puts are now showing a loss and will probably be stopped out tomorrow at this rate.  I'm considering going out to the SPY October puts as the next trade.  There wan no chance today to exit the current trade at a profit since we had a gap higher open.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold finished barely changed and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4 on average volume.  The gold shares have been decimated.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back below its 200 day moving average and the technical indicators rolled back down.  This implies some more upside to come.  Today the McClellan oscillator bounced off of a pretty negative reading as it should have.  But I am noticing the volume lately has been very weak, a sign that players are not in a hurry to establish positions.  But the minor decline that we've seen here says that full scale selling hasn't occurred yet either.  Nine days left in the September option cycle.  We'll get inflation data, retail sales and the beige book out this week.  So there will be things to trade off of.  Right now I'm a believer that whatever bounce we see early this week won't hold up.  It is just a matter of if I get stopped out of the current trade or not.  We'll see how it goes.  Asia continues lower but Europe rose in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Another interesting session today as the Dow fell 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  the summation index is moving lower.  Once again the market opened much lower only to find its way higher for the rest of the session.  the jobs numbers were better than expected but the tariff headlines continues to dominate the ongoing market theme.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P along with the small stocks have rolled over.  We aren't completely oversold yet and the decline has been orderly for now.  We could completely reverse next week because some kind of upside is overdue.  My SPY September puts are showing a small gain.  I may have to dump them early next week and then try and buy them back cheaper.  The daily VIX is getting overbought but we did manage to close above the 200 day moving average for a change.  The underlying market has been weaker than the Dow lately and that is not a positive sign.  However the point decline hasn't been much for stocks and I'm not exactly sure just what that means.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher along with US interest rates.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on average volume.  Perhaps some safe haven buying there today because the economic data wasn't positive for the precious metal.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Most major stock indices declined this week but we haven't seen anything go over a cliff.  With the summation index heading down the trend is lower.  There's still two weeks to go in the September option cycle, so there's plenty of time for the index puts to work.  The small stock indexes are getting near their 50 day moving averages, which have held the most recent previous declines.  I'm keeping a close eye on what happens there because it will have meaning for the rest of the marketplace.  I may be wrong about an extended decline here because all attempts so far for a big drop in stocks has been met with buying.  We'll see if that holds up next week as well and it just might.  It depends on what kind of news pops up this weekend.  Regardless of that most stock index charts have short term down trends on them now.  But like I said before, there hasn't been any panic yet and buyers have showed up when needed.  Next week should be interesting as well.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight as they try to put a halt to the recent declines.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A repeat of yesterday as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower.  The Dow was up 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were both much lower than the Dow.  Once again we tried to sell off hard but the market hung in there all day.  Whatever bounce that I have been anticipating isn't showing up.  Perhaps we're seeing a change in the tone of the market.  But buyers are coming in when we drop and we finish off of the lows for the session each time.  We'll see what we get with the employment report tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major averages but not the Dow.  My SPY September puts are now showing a small profit.  GE was off a nickel on light volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on better than average volume.  The gold shares are blown out to the downside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are heading lower here and that is not a positive.  We are at near term support for the small issues along with getting close to the 50 day moving average.  So perhaps things can hold up here for stocks.  The 200 day moving average is proving to be resistance for the VIX and it closed right there.  So perhaps tomorrow will be a pivotal day for stocks.  One of my indicators is pretty oversold, so a bounce would not be out of the question.  But the underlying tone of selling from the broader market could mean that maybe we will finally be getting a substantial decline.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there.  RUT looks like it is rolling over as well and it usually is a leader for the market.  Of course things could all change tomorrow or with the next headline as well.  We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs numbers and go from there.  Europe and Asia were down again as the emerging market sell off shows no signs of letting up yet.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

A mixed bag today as the Dow was up with the broader market down.  The most watched index gained 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is now moving lower but not with any conviction yet.  Once again the signal from the McClellan oscillator did not materialize.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 showed relative weakness.  This is a change from what we saw in August when it was just the opposite.  I still think we're going to see some rally soon but I could be wrong.  I'm also still holding on to my SPY September puts and they are still showing a slight loss despite the recent downside that we've seen.  GE was off 1/8 and volume picked up a bit.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  There is a potential positive divergence on he daily RSI for the gold shares here.  Potential being the key word there.  We are overblown to the downside here but we also stayed oversold here for weeks.  I'm not inclined to attempt a trade here at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market has tried to sell off for about three days in a row here to no avail.  I'm not sure exactly what to expect tomorrow but I would think we would tread lightly ahead of Fridays jobs report.  There have been rumblings from the emerging markets overseas having some kind of trouble again.  But the early selling in the US has always been met with buyers during the session so far.  As long as that continues we really won't see any significant downside for US equities.  The VIX has had opportunities to expand but has kept below its 200 day moving average.  The potential for a drop still probably exists but until it actually happens it may just be wishful thinking on my part because I own the index puts.  However the overall market weakness vs. the Dow gives that trade a chance for now.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Slightly lower on the Dow today as it shed 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow for a change.  We did get a signal on the McClellan oscillator last Friday for a big move in the next two sessions.  We'll see if it shows up tomorrow.  Still short term overbought on the major stock indices and it still has a feel of a market that wants to go higher.  It did try to sell off early today as we were down over 100 points but buyers steeped up and we came all the way back.  My SPY September puts are still showing a loss.  One day of rally might them stopped out.  GE lost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold fell eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar rose.  Interest rates went up as well.  The XAU lost 2 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  We've reached fresh lows for the gold share indices.  If ever there was seasonal pattern that didn't show up, this year for gold and the gold shares is an example.  As much as I'd like to attempt the longer term calls here again, I'm going to simply stay away from trading there for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed today but then came all the way back.  That says to me that there's a chance for things to get back going to the upside soon.  Like I said, we had a chance to sell off today but made it all the way back.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk but all selling has been met with buyers for the past few weeks.  We do have some tech companies being grilled by Congress tomorrow.  However I think the main event will be the employment report on Friday.  So we'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes in the evening trading tonight. 

Drifting around and getting nowhere today as the Dow fell 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  The small stocks remain strong and it appears that higher prices are in the wings.  We're still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  My SPY September puts are in the red.  I do think that I'll be stopped out on Tuesday morning barring some negative headline over the long holiday weekend.  Volume should picks up next week with everyone back at their desks.  If it doesn't, then I'd start to worry about the duration of this breakout.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was flat while the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares remain unloved.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was quite a positive month in August for stocks as we roll into September.  We've broken out on the S&P 500 and there is no overhead resistance.  The market is overbought but during rallies it simply stays that way.  That's what we've seen here lately.  I've tried the SPY puts again but my entry timing was off and this trade doesn't look like it will pan out either.  We'll see what comes out of the weekend but I don't expect much.  There will be economic data to trade off of next week including the jobs report on Friday.  Right now the market has the look and feel of something that wants to go higher.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the month overseas.  It's a long holiday weekend here in the US and the unofficial end of summer.  I'll check the charts over the weekend but it appears for now that we're in rally mode until proven otherwise.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower on trade concerns today as the Dow fell 137 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading up.  More tariff noise out of the white house today and that sent stocks lower.  The small stocks held up rather well though, so that tells me that this decline shouldn't last long.  The VIX spiked higher but it probably won't last.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are still overbought.  My SPY September puts are still showing a loss.  The timing there on the entry was off by a couple of days.  GE lost 20 cents on light volume.  Gold dropped five bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One more trading day for the month of August and it's the last day of summer vacation for players as well.  We should be back at full strength on Tuesday as Monday is the Labor day holiday.  The market is still in rally mode but I would suggest that it needs a rest.  We're back at the mercy of headline risk.  Today was simply another quiet summer day until something came out of Washington about the tariffs again.  The market has been able to ignore this kind of news all summer.  I would not expect that to change.  Overbought, staying that way and I don't see any substantial decline coming until the technical indicators roll over.  The small stocks continue to act well and that is a positive.  When we see RUT and the NASDAQ start to drop, then we'll get an actual decline.  Until then the trend is up.  We did get a light volume breakout to new all time highs.  We'll see if it holds going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll finish up the month of August tomorrow.     

It is simply up, up and away for stocks as the Dow gained 60 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  There is no overhead resistance.  The small stocks are leading the way.  It is about as bullish as it gets.  I'm about to be stopped out of my SPY September puts.  Technically short term overbought and staying that way.  The VIX remains in the 12's.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar were slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The gold shares continue to disappoint.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are no sellers.  We've broken out to the upside in the S&P 500 and despite the light volume we continue to advance.  My original theory of a five wave pattern being completed here was wrong.  Hence the many losses that I've taken on the way back up.  It's basically back to the drawing board now for me.  Most likely when I'm stopped out of the current trade I'll be heading for the sidelines for a while to regroup.  There's been too many losses without a winning trade for months.  It's time to step back and reassess what's going on here.  Of the major stock averages only the Dow and the NYA haven't hit new all time highs.  That should occur for both in the coming weeks.  The usual negative seasonal factor for the stock market is not showing up.  Kind of like the bullish seasonal for gold that didn't materialize.  However you've got to keep moving on in the game.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the nighttime developments.

It was a quiet day of just hanging around as the Dow rose 14 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move higher.  We had a gap up open but then traded sideways for the rest of the session.  No market moving news to speak of and the market has returned to summer mode.  The volume is light, all the players aren't at their desks and we'll see what happens when we get past Labor day.  My SPY September puts are showing a slight loss.  The stop loss order is in.  GE lost a penny on average volume.  Gold fell eight bucks.  The US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We remain short term overbought on the major stock indices and at record highs for some.  There is no overhead resistance.  Perhaps attempting the SPY puts here isn't the right strategy but we will not remain overbought forever.  Also even though it is summer, the light volume breakout here may not be sustainable.  That's just a guess.  The overbought condition is not.  I'm hoping that the trade I've taken doesn't get stopped out this week and then we'll see what happens in September.  Europe and Asia were mixed to lower.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Powering higher to begin the week as a supposed trade deal with Mexico spurred buying interest.  The Dow soared 259 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  There is no overhead resistance and sellers have disappeared for now.  The usual seasonal weakness is not here.  I dumped the SPY September puts that I bought on Friday for a 33% loss.  Even though there is plenty of time for this trade I decided to sell out of that and repurchase the puts at a higher strike price which I did.  That trade is showing a slight loss and this trade I will hold on to for a while unless we simply get a parabolic rise from here.  That is a possibility despite that fact that we're overbought and staying that way.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  It look like a bottom has been put in here.  Gold rose a few bucks as the US dollar is dropping.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  This look like an oversold bounce as the gold shares got crushed in the preceding weeks.  I did sell the GDX September calls that I held but it was mostly symbolic.  The loss here was 99.9%.  I basically just got this trade on the books to register the loss and move on.  The mistake of not putting on a stop loss was evident here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is acting like it wants to take off to the moon here so we'll have to see how the month finishes out.  Perhaps trying the puts again is the wrong strategy but some of the technical indicators are saying that we've reached at least a short term top.  Not a lot of economic data out this week and it is still summer vacation for most.  So I think I'll hold on to this position and let this week pass from here.  We'll see if we get the expected follow through upside tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on any overnight developments.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 133 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We finally closed at a new record high for the S&P 500.  It looks like there will be even higher prices coming up as well.  The VIX is at 12 and the RUT set another record today as well.  My open order for the SPY September puts was filled.  I may be a bit early on this trade.  It is showing a slight loss.  We are short term overbought on the major stock indices but in up trends it stays that way.  The volume has also been pretty light but it is the last couple of weeks of summer.  That said there is plenty of time for this trade to pan out at a profit since there's an extra week in the September option cycle.  GE was off a few cents and the volume's light.  Gold came to life today as politicians are trying to talk down the dollar.  The precious metal futures rose almost twenty bucks with the dollar heading lower.  The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  It still didn't help my GDX September calls.  They're still dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Stocks continue to move higher and it looks like clear sailing from here in the short term.  Supposed bad news is being shrugged off and any selling is met with buying.  Could it be that the usual seasonal weakness for stocks won't show up this year as the usual seasonal strength for gold didn't happen?  It certainly appears that way at the moment.  I'll put in my stop loss order for this SPY September put trade and go from there.  I'd expect next week to be a light volume affair like this week as it's the last hurrah of summer.  Not much else to do now except check the charts over the weekend and wait for the open on Monday.  Unless we get some headline out of the blue, expect higher prices next week.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher to close out the trading week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving lower on the Dow as it fell 76 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Not much direction here for the market as the volume is so light it's hard to read anything into what is going on.  The overall market is holding up better than the Dow but the short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock indices.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY September puts.  The VIX is in the 12's and the players are out on vacation.  With the extra week on the September option cycle, there really isn't a rush to put any kind of trade on.  GE gained a few cents and the volume's light.  Gold fell $11 on the futures as the US dollar moved up.  The XAU dropped 2 1/8 while GDX shed almost 1/3.  It appears that there is no hope for gold and the gold shares.  The usual positive seasonality is not showing up this year.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are holding up better here but without any volume it's hard to say what is exactly going on.  The market appeared to be heading to new all time highs this week but now looks to be getting tired.  The fact the RUT broke to new all time highs is bullish.  Perhaps we'll trend sideways for a while before attempting new all time highs for the S&P 500 again.  That's just a guess as usual.  It's still a watch and wait period for now.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what the Fed head has to say tomorrow and close out the summer trading week.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 88 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  The Dow was weaker than the overall market, with the NASDAQ in positive territory.  Headline risk has returned but the market just shrugged it off today.  This is a market that seems to want to go higher.  We're still short term overbought on the major indices but that doesn't matter in rallies.  RUT was higher today and the VIX turned back down.  I'm expecting more upside in the next couple of days.  GE lost over 1/8 but the volume was lighter than yesterday.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar dropped slightly today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains again on very light volume.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Friends of Trump were being convicted yesterday after the bell and the futures had a good drop.  But the market came all the way back today before drifting lower into the close.  The market is ignoring much of the bad news that is appearing lately.  That is usually the case when things want to get going higher.  The only trouble I see here is that its the last couple of weeks in August and a lot of the players aren't at their desks.  That said, I still have my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  The Fed minutes were a non-event today.  There isn't much else on the economic agenda this week.  Chairman Powell will speak on Friday.  We'll simply keep watching and waiting for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight.  On to Thursday.

Higher today but we did finish well off of the best levels from the session.  The Dow added 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The S&P 500 got oh so close to setting a new all time high but backed off.  RUT did manage to make it past 1700 and on to a new high.  The TRAN set a new all time high as well at the close.  That bodes well for the advance in the overall market to continue.  The VIX turned around today though and that will be something to keep an eye on.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY September puts up another strike price.  It is also possible that today was the price top and we simply head lower from here but I also think that we'll try to hit new highs in the S&P again in the September option cycle.  I could be wrong.  GE came to life and gained 1/3 on OK volume.  Gold was higher and made it back to $1200 on the futures as the US dollar continues to drop.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional gains, this time on light volume.  Gold has had a nice bounce but the gold shares are not following.  That isn't a positive sign.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting price action today as we had a good rally going but it stalled at resistance.  There's plenty of time left in the September option cycle so there is no rush to do anything.  That said, we are overbought on a short term basis for most of the major averages.  The Dow and the NYA have the most ground to make up to reach new all time highs as the other major averages are pretty close.  As I've already stated the RUT made it there today.  The price action that we've seen in stocks after last weeks Turkey currency scare has been positive.  I do think that we'll make new all time highs in the S&P 500 quite soon.  It's where we go after that giving me pause as the week moves forward.  I'm still expecting a bearish conclusion to events after we set a new high.  That's my guess for now.  Europe and Asia were higher again as it appears that there's a worldwide push back into stocks.  We'll see what the Fed minutes have to say tomorrow and how the market reacts to that. 

A drift higher today as the Dow rose 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow.  It still looks like we'll see new all time highs in the S&P 500 soon.  RUT looks ready to crack the 1700 level as well.  The VIX is around 12 1/2.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY September puts to a higher strike price.  There isn't a lot of economic data due out this week but we will get the Fed minutes on Wednesday.  Chairman Powell also will give a speech on Friday.  Other than that I don't see any headline risk out there like we saw last week.. Of course that could change in a tweet.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  Gold gained a dozen as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a summer Monday today as we roll into an extended week option cycle.  Perhaps traders will take the next couple of weeks a little slower than we've seen so far this summer.  I'm still looking for weakness going into September but that could change if we see a high volume breakout to new all time highs.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are getting overbought though.  I'll leave in my open order for the SPY puts for now and continue to monitor the situation.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We got some upside follow through to yesterdays gains as the Dow added 110 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should the summation index back up.  The rally is mostly in the Dow for now.  I'm keeping an eye on RUT as it hasn't broken out above 1700 with volume yet.  The S&P 500 is once again challenging new all time highs.  It may get there next week if the rally continues.  The VIX is back below its 50 day moving average.  The market made quite a comeback during a turbulent week.  It seems to be saying that we're poised to move higher.  I do still have my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  I think that if RUT breaks out to the upside I will have to cancel that trade.  GE was unchanged on light volume.  Gold was up $6 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was pretty heavy.  Most likely short covering in my opinion because I can't see any reason why anyone would be interested in gold after the beating it has taken.  I don't know, maybe some bottom fishing but the fact remains that the seasonal strength has been nowhere to be found in gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it through option expiration today and we're on to the September cycle.  An extra week thrown in there for September so the premiums are high.  The market was resilient this week considering all the negative headline news.  The S&P 500 seems poised to set a new all time high at some point next week.  If it does start to break out here we'll need to see some volume to confirm the move up.  But it hasn't happened yet and headlines from the weekend could turn things around back down again.  There's plenty of questions without answers at the moment.  It's been a busy summer and I suppose that won't change here in the last two weeks of August.  I'll go over the charts as usual this weekend to try to decipher what I think is going on.  I do believe that new highs in the S&P are coming up soon.  After that, I just don't know.  Asia was generally higher and Europe slightly lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Quite a move higher today as the Dow soared 396 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was higher but not as much as the Dow.  Earnings drove things higher today but the underlying overseas issues remain.  I still have my open order for the SPY September puts out there but we'll need to see more rally for it to get filled.  Volatility has definitely increased this week as there are no summer doldrums to be found.  I am thinking that yesterday was a temporary washout to the downside and now we will once again make an attempt at new all time highs for the S&P 500.  That's my take on things at the moment.  GE was up eight cents and the volume was average.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 3/8.  Volume remains good here as the gold shares have been annihilated.  Theses issues are so oversold it is as if they are going to zero.  My GDX September call trade is dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day left for option expiration week and it feels like this week has been two.  But that's the way it feels when volatility rears its head.  The bulls and bears are fighting it out here and I'm still in the camp that the bears will win out here.  Ideally things will set up to get the SPY September puts at some point next week.  I don't know why the gold shares are so weak here because the metal itself hasn't dropped as much.  Yes, we've broken through $1200 on gold but the percentage move in the gold shares versus gold is out of whack.  I'd like to see a bounce and I'm sure we'll get one but I certainly don't know when.  Asia was a bit lower but Europe scored gains overnight.  We'll close out a tumultuous week tomorrow. 

Turkey fears again today as the Dow lost 137 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Make no mistake that we're heading lower and that rallies can be shorted.  We did finish up from the worst levels of the day but there should be no doubt which way the market is headed.  The VIX jumped above 16 today before falling back to its 200 day moving average.  I guess that I can still hope for a bounce at some point but we all know hope is not a trading strategy.  It appears that I've missed the chance for the SPY September puts here.  The media has yet to jump on the downside bandwagon.  That alone tells me that there's more to come.  GE was off another 1/8 on average volume.  Gold got sold off again, the futures lost almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU fell 4 2/3, while GDX dropped 1 1/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  It's a bloodbath for the gold shares.  These issues are so oversold that you can expect a pretty good snap back rally soon.  It won't amount to a change in trend but it may give me a chance to exit my GDX September call trade without a complete loss.  The seasonality for gold didn't show up this year, in fact it was the exact opposite.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here.  Sooner or later, down.  The gold sell off could be the result of margin calls around the world in addition to the rise in the US dollar.  I do not see the upward trend in the dollar turning around anytime soon.  The safe haven factor there along with rising rates in the US make the dollar the place to be for now.  A rising dollar is not good for US multinational companies, which would keep a lid on the stock market.  Throw in the trade tariff factor and the fundamentals right now are not bullish for stocks.  If these factors start to affect earnings, then you can see where all this is going.  Technically the short term indicators have rolled over and are not all the way oversold yet.  So I will simply have to wait to see if we get some kind of bounce to position myself in the September option period.  But as I've said, it may already be too late.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce back up today as the Dow rose 112 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  A pause in the decline or are we heading back to attempt new all time highs again?  That is the question that will be answered in the coming days.  There's still problems in Turkey so don't expect that issue to just disappear.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn around.  The VIX closed back below its 200 day moving average.  I did leave my open order for the SPY September puts out there.  RUT had a good day and I'm keeping an eye on that.  If RUT breaks to a new all time high, I'll probably take off the SPY trade.  RUT has had a two month consolidation and if it can significantly break above 1700 it would bode well for the overall market.  Hasn't happened yet but it is something to watch.  GE was off another dime on about average volume.  Gold rose a couple bucks as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU fell 7/8, while GDX lost almost 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are completely washed out.  The oversold readings have lasted for weeks.  It is a bloodbath for these shares.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week is upon us and I would normally expect the usual positive bias but we do have the troubles in Turkey to contend with.  The market is susceptible to headline risk at the moment even more so than usual.  I suppose what I'd really like to do is let this week pass and go from there.  There is an extra week in the September option cycle so the premiums remain high.  Even if we did make a nominal new all time high in the S&P, I think that we are going to see some seasonal downside in the September period.  Of course I also expected some seasonal upside for gold and we've seen how that worked out.  Asia was mixed overnight while Europe was little changed.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading headlines.  

Continuing lower today as the Dow fell 125 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Rallies from here can and will be sold.  It already looks like it's too late for the SPY puts.  The VIX closed above its 200 day moving average and that's another sign of what I believe is to come.  The overall market was not as low as the Dow but don't let that fool you.  I'm not sure exactly how far we'll go down but it should be a lot lower than here.  Next months puts are already pricey but I do think that they will work.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  It broke to new fresh lows.  Gold got pummeled despite the trouble overseas.  That is a sure sign of weakness.  The futures lost $18 and closed at $1200.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX shed 5/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  Perhaps this is the final blowout to the downside.  Or maybe not.  The positive seasonality for gold is nowhere to be found this year.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is still focused on the problems in Turkey.  This too will pass.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indexes have rolled over.  We are seeing selling worldwide and that is to be expected.  I don't know if we've gotten to the margin call stage yet.  But we've definitely seen the flight to safety trade with the US dollar and US treasuries.  Did not see it in gold though, just the opposite there.  I do not know what that means except that when things start to head lower, as is the case with gold right now, they usually go further than you think.  It will create opportunity but I have already taken my shot there and will now look for other trades.  I'll still try the SPY September puts if I get the chance.  Europe and Asia sold off last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.