The Dow got clobbered again and lost over 1000 points for the second time this week.  The most watched index fell 1033 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  At this rate we are moving into the potential crash zone for the summation index.  We're not there yet but if the decline continues we could get there soon.  Volatility remains elevated and the trading is tricky as premiums are sky high for the SPY options.  That said, the retest of the early week lows has already failed.  Where we go from here is a guessing game.  I guess 2500 on the S&P 500 would be a good spot to have the decline take a breather.  It's a nice round number and it is below the 200 day moving average.  But looking at the daily chart, there's support that comes in right where we are now, give or take a few points.  And a few points here means about 25 or 50.  We've now had a 10% correction but the market is in crazy mode.  Tomorrow will be interesting.  GE lost 3/4 and the volume is still heavy.  New lows for this move lower in GE.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Not exactly a flight to safety for gold and the dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short the rallies is about all I can say here.  If there are any rallies.  We did have a bounce but it died rapidly yesterday.  I might consider the SPY February calls again if we get to 250 there.  There's better support at 245 though.  It is all in a state of flux at the moment.  On a very short term basis this could be the 5th wave down of the move lower that began on January 29th.  That's my best guess for now.  Trying a trade here would be very risky.  After somehow getting away with the last trade, it may be better to just sit on the sidelines for now.  I'll consider the alternatives overnight.  What we are seeing is the result of the parabolic move higher in January.  This is how those moves end.  The trip down can be just as fast or even faster as we are witnessing right now.  There will be opportunities though if you are good enough to find and take advantage of them.  We'll continue to keep looking.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll finish out this volatile week tomorrow.

Bouncing around today as the market is trying to make up its mind on where to go.  The Dow lost 19 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The Dow was up almost 400 points during the day.  So you can see that the intra-day volatility remains.  I was considering the SPY February puts at one point but the premiums are still out of whack.  I may look to try the calls again if we retest the lows before expiration.  A run back to the 275 level on the SPY will have me attempting the puts.  As you can see the situation remains fluid.  I am going to try not to be in any kind of rush and consider myself fortunate to have gotten out of the previous trade unscathed.  GE lost a couple cents and the volume is still heavy.  Gold dropped over $10 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume here remains good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've basically had a short term collapse and now we are in the aftermath.  The option premiums are still all over the place and that makes for difficult trading.  But as the days pass on the way to expiration, the volatility premium will evaporate.  If I do attempt another trade in the February cycle, it will be at the price that I want and nothing else.  Getting a signal would be the ideal situation but if we get to the levels that I explained before it may very well be worth a shot.  You can forget the economic data for now and simply focus on the market movement itself.  Earnings have suddenly taken a back seat but that's what happens when you get a trading environment like this.  Risk is higher than normal but the rewards have the potential to be higher as well.  Most likely quicker too but that makes for tougher trading.  You can always simply stay on the sidelines and wait for things to settle down.  I'll be keeping an eye on things and hopefully the market will cooperate for another profitable trade before the 16th.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Just another crazy day on Wall Street as the Dow got the bounce we were looking for and rose 567 points on heavier volume than yesterday.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'd like to see some follow through tomorrow but in this environment you take what you can get.  We were down over 500 points early and the days range was over 1000 points again.  The volatility here has gone off the charts.  My SPY February calls were all over the place.  They showed a profit at one point early.  Then they were at an over 50% loss.  They once again came back and I got out with a better than 50% profit.  However the market kept going and it looks like holding on until tomorrow would have been a better idea.  But with the way things are going now, I'll take getting out today.  This trade was going to be a big loser.  I'm not sure what the next trade will be but I can tell you this.  You've got to be quick on the execution because the pricing is looking pretty squirrelly during the trading session.  The decline may be done for now but that doesn't mean that we won't go back to retest todays low.  I'll have to pour over things tonight to develop the next idea.  I don't think that we are going to be going straight back up.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume is still very heavy.  Gold lost $10 on the futures, while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU lost a point and GDX dropped almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  US interest rates came down today but the dollar didn't move.  The fundamentals for gold here are bearish in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit exhausted due to the increased volatility.  There are opportunities to be sure.  On an intra-day basis no less.  But the risk is extremely high and you've got to be nimble and not fall in love with your trades.  I'd like to try something else before the expiration but I'm not exactly sure what to do right at the moment.  You can throw out any economic data due out this week as the market has taken on a life of its own.  The last fibonacci retracement level for the SPY on a snap back basis is around 275.  That could be the spot to try the puts again.  We are at 269.  I may be willing to take a chance there.  If we somehow go lower from here, I might want to try the calls again at around the 260 level.  The only thing that I can say for sure is that we are in a very fluid situation that requires a skill level that I may not possess.  But that won't stop me from trying.  Again, don't fall in love with anything and take your profits when you can.  The market conditions that we are experiencing now won't continue forever.  The trading will get back to normal eventually.  But we saw a parabolic rise to the top and now we've seen the inevitable collapse of that.  Where we go from here is all that matters.  But don't expect any new all time highs anytime soon.  Foreign markets were crushed overnight.  We'll see how things go overnight and I'll try to come up with the next trading idea before the February expiration. 

The market simply collapsed today as the Dow dropped over a thousand points.  The most watched index shed 1175 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is in a free fall.  I thought support was at 2700 for the S&P 500 but we just knifed through there.  The market goes where it wants.  Volatility is off the charts.  The market goes down faster than is goes up.  We've wiped out the gains for the year in just over a week.  I made the mistake of getting some SPY February calls to try and play a bounce that I thought would happen.  That trade is getting crushed and I doubt it will come back.  The volatility is keeping the premiums up.  So if I can hang around for the snap back bounce, I may be able to salvage a workable loss.  Otherwise it's just kiss it goodbye.  We're in extreme market conditions here, so anything goes.  It looks like there's more support for the S&P at 2600 but there are no guarantees there.  Well, at least I was right about the rally being over.  Those February puts would have been quite profitable if you got them and held on.  GE lost 3/4 and the volume was very heavy.  Who knows where we're going here.  Gold was up $6 but nobody noticed.  The US dollar rose in a flight to safety.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose you could call today a mini-crash since we did drop over 1000.  It was off even more than that at one point late in the day.  I do think that it is a bit overdone at this point but what do I know?  We are due to bounce but we were due this morning as well.  The McClellan oscillator is even more oversold now and it won't stay that way for long.  At least usually it doesn't.  For me I'm now in the hoping stage and that is no way to trade.  I'll be looking to see how much I can cut the loss.  Where does the market go from here.  Even after todays sell off, I still  see in the media that this is nothing to worry about and stocks will come back.  That tells me that there is still a lot of complacency out there.  So we probably have lower to go.  There is no doubt in my mind that this is the beginning of a bear market.  The long bull market has come to an end.  I don't know how long the bear will last but in my view the rally since 2009 is now over.  There's nine days to go in the February option cycle.  If I hadn't gotten filled on the SPY calls today, I would be sitting the rest of this option cycle out.  The market is moving fast right now and I don't know if I'm up to the task.  Like I've already said, this has to be a cut the loss trade now because the strike price is so far out of the money.  We'd need to see a 1000 point rise for this thing to work.  That is highly unlikely.  Stay tuned to this game because it has really gotten interesting.  Europe and Asia were both lower and they will get creamed overnight.  We'll see if this thing can at least stabilize tomorrow but anything can and will happen.  

And so it goes.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 665 on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  What can I say?  Another opportunity lost.  The employment report didn't really matter.  Yesterday the McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move and we got it today.  All parabolic moves end ugly and here is your proof from the markets extraordinary rise since the beginning of January.  I'm not sure how low we go here but all rallies can be shorted from here on out.  The long running bull market is over.  I had pegged 273 on the SPY for the extent of this decline, which equated to 5%.  We may go further.  I'm looking for follow through selling Monday morning but that will be the opportunity to get long for a short term bounce if you so desire.  We are now extremely short term oversold and upside is coming.  The tricky part will be trying to figure out where to buy the SPY February puts to hold until expiration Friday.  That seems to me to be the better trading idea in the days to come next week.  I just wasn't quick enough to recognize the opportunity this week.  Again.  But on the plus side at least my ideas are looking better and it is only a matter of time before the winning trades start rolling in.  GE was off over 1/3 and broke $16.  Volume remains very heavy here.  I don't have any ideas for GE right now.  Gold dropped around $15 as the US dollar was higher.  Interest rates have taken off and that finally was reflected in gold and the dollar.  The XAU shed 3 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was pretty heavy.  The gold shares were overbought and due for a decline.  We're seeing that now.  Mentally I'm feeling a but frustrated as the market drops and I'm not taking advantage of it.  Perhaps the speed of the SPY is too much for me, since I haven't really traded it sine last October.  There's also the chance that I'm too risk averse since the last few trades that I did in the SPY were losers.  I'm going to have to try and sort things out in my head over the weekend because the market is certainly not going to wait around for me to get my act together.  Usually what happens after a drop like this is that you will get a huge upside day out of the blue.  Then everyone thinks that things are back to normal.  That will be the time to look to try the SPY puts again.  I don't know if it will work on the first bounce or not because what we have seen this week is extreme.  But I do know we'll see some kind of big upside day at some point next week.  How the market does after that will tell you a lot about where we are heading.  Europe and Asia were generally lower but I expect Monday morning overseas to be ugly.  There's a couple weeks left in the February option cycle, so there is still time to tackle a trade.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  If you are nimble enough the SPY calls purchased on Monday weakness should work for a short term trade.  If not, I'd look to short any two to three day rally next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Somewhat of a holding pattern today but we did bounce around a lot.  The Dow rose 37 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  There isn't any doubt in my mind that we're heading lower but near term strength is expected.  Some of my indicators are indicating that we are short term oversold.  Even if we are lower tomorrow, I expect some type of rise at the beginning of next week.  If we're up tomorrow I may have to change that prognosis.  I've got an open order in for some SPY February puts but it will take a rally for the order to get filled.  Anybody who is paying attention can see the change that we have in market action recently.  The days of simply heading higher everyday are over in my opinion.  I do think that the February index puts will work.  GE was off over 1/8 on good volume but less than we have seen lately.  The $16 continues to hold for now.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  This occurred despite a rise in US interest rates.  I'm not sure this inverse relationship can last forever and I certainly don't know why it is happening.  The XAU and GDX finished the session flat on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still a little over two weeks to go in the February option cycle.  Attempting a trade here will be tricky because the nature of things has changed.  Volatility has returned and the trading must be done in a faster mode that I haven't done in a while.  I'll take my cues here from the summation index and it is pointing towards lower prices.  At the rate things are going at this point, I won't be entering a trade until next week.  We've got AAPL after the bell and the jobs report tomorrow morning.  Ideally we'll see a rally that carries over into Monday.  If we just head down tomorrow, I may have to rethink the February SPY puts because we will have already moved too low perhaps.  As usual it's a fluid situation.  But I do still believe that rallies can be shorted for now.  Asia was closed or lower while Europe was down.  Looks like Apple missed estimates.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 72 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  I am looking for more upside as today was not enough to cheapen the SPY February puts for my taste.  But the market may not cooperate.  The Fed came and went and next up is the Friday jobs report.  What I'd like to see is a solid upside session in order to get short.  The ideal scenario would be to hit a nominal new high with a lower RSI reading but that would take a few days and the market could just continue to fall apart here.  So I'll have to wait and see.  It isn't the best case scenario but I am still convinced that this rally has run its course.  GE was up almost 1/4 on still heavy volume.  The more the $16 level is tested, the more chance it has to hold.  Gold gained almost $10 as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was better than yesterday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped slightly today and is coming off of short term overbought levels.  The small stocks are holding up rather well here and no important uptrend lines have been broken to the downside yet.  In fact the resilience of the small caps here may mean that the decline that I'm looking for may not come to pass.  The smaller stocks are usually the leaders of moves both up and down.  The McClellan oscillator did hit a pretty oversold level yesterday, so some near term upside is expected.  How far and how strong that upside is will tell us a lot about where we are going.  I'm still favoring the SPY February puts during this option cycle but as always the timing is key.  At this point I may have to wait until next week.  However the risk will increase with each passing day.  I'll be watching and waiting for now.  Europe and Asia were both mixed last night.  It's the beginning of the month tomorrow but I would expect a holding pattern as we wait for Fridays employment report.  Apple reports after the bell tomorrow and that could affect Fridays action as well.  But let's see what happens on Thursday first. 

The Dow got clobbered today and lost 362 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were again over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  Two days don't make a trend but I can tell you that the trend is now down.  The rally is over.  Parabolic moves higher never end pretty and we are now seeing the picture.  Any rallies can be shorted in my opinion.  We had a gap lower today and if we're lucky perhaps that gap will be filled and give us an opportunity to buy some SPY February puts.  But we may just keep going straight down here and if that's the case it will be an opportunity missed.  I also think that this is probably the end of the bull market that began in 2009.  We've reached the measuring objectives of the 5 wave move up from there.  Perhaps we'll make a nominal new all time high but I would not be surprised if this is it for the longer term bull market.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was heavy.  Just below $16 here.  It would be a good spot to get some calls if you thought GE will hold here.  I'm going to concentrate on the SPY here instead.  Gold was off a little on the futures and the US dollar dropped slightly as well.  The XAU lost 7/8 and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was lighter.  No flight to safety here today.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I do want to participate in the profits on this decline.  I can't really fault myself too much though as there was no signal to get short.  Just a parabolic move higher that continued to spin out of control to the upside.  However now that we know what is going on, I'll be trying the SPY February puts on any move higher.  I do think that kind of trade will work going forward.  The only problem here is that we simply may continue lower without any bounce up.  If that is the case I will have to look to play the bounce if we get short term oversold.  The VIX has spiked into overbought territory on some of the short term indicators so perhaps we'll see some relief there soon.  There is plenty of time left in the February option cycle to make something work.  But the increase in volatility will make things interesting and more difficult to say the least.  We'll get the Fed announcement tomorrow and then the jobs numbers on Friday.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow as well.  Also throw in the state of the union speech tonight.  So there's plenty for the market to digest the rest of this week.  Europe and Asia were both lower as the world is now selling off stock assets together instead of buying.  We'll see how long this keeps going on.  Keep an eye on things overnight along with the futures market reaction to the state of the union address. 

Some downside to start the week for a change as the Dow lost 177 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a much needed decline but that still remains to be seen.  I will be looking at hopefully a lighter volume push higher from here, in order to purchase the SPY February puts.  Or it may already be too late.  These parabolic moves higher never end well and sometimes it is simply a straight line back down.  There's also the possibility that this is just another blip on the radar as we continue higher to new all time highs again.  But the breadth today tells me that is probably not the case.  I'll be looking to get the SPY puts sometime this week.  GE bucked the trend and rose 15 cents on the usual heavy volume.  Still holding the $16 level here.  Gold fell over $10 today as the US dollar edged higher.  US interest rates are on the rise and that is normally a headwind for gold.  The XAU was off over 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend but it certainly feels different to me today on this decline.  We did have a good rise on the VIX today and it is getting to the overbought range on some of the technical indicators.  That would not equate to more selling in the immediate future in my view but anything can happen in this game.  We've got the end of the month coming up on Wednesday along with the Fed.  The thinking is that the Fed will be a non event since a new chairman is about to take over in February.  But you never know.  Also the employment report is due out on Friday.  So there are plenty of potential market moving events to deal with this week.  It could be that the time to act is now for the SPY February puts.  However I will at least try and wait for some type of negative divergence signal.  If we do simply go straight down from here, it will be too late for me anyway.  So needless to say, it is time to really pay attention to what the market does here.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the trading action overnight.

The parabolic run higher continues as the Dow poured on another 223 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  GDP was a little less than expected but it didn't matter.  The only thing that matters is that the market is going higher.  Earnings continue to come in and projections are for more profits as the new corporate tax rate goes into effect.  It doesn't look like anything can bring this market down but I will continue to warn you.  When it gets going like this the end will not be pretty.  But who can tell when the end will be?  Still overbought on all time frames for the major averages any way you look at it.  The technical indicators haven't been working for weeks.  I am still looking at the SPY February puts but still have no idea on when to purchase them.  Perhaps next week.  GE was off a few cents on still pretty good volume.  $16 has held for now.  There is a possible short term double bottom here on the daily chart with a potential positive RSI divergence.  I'm not sure if I'd try the February calls here though.  It is something to consider over the weekend.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures which reflected what happened yesterday on the aftermarket.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  No trades in mind here but to me it looks like the gold shares a re due for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a January so far for stocks and it doesn't look like anything can derail this runaway freight train.  We are so overextended by any stretch of the imagination that I am at a loss as what to do.  I mean I know that getting the SPY puts at some stage will work and they will probably work pretty good.  However when the technicals are so far out of whack that they remain overbought or oversold for weeks on end, you know you're in a situation that doesn't occur very often.  It reminds me of the dot com run up at the turn of the century when companies were bid up with no products or earnings.  We've got products and earnings this time around but the price action is similar.  We all know what happened back then though and I expect a repeat of history is coming at some point.  I suppose all you can do here is watch and wait.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another mixed bag today as the Dow climbed 140 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The NASDAQ showed a small loss on the session and the TRAN has rolled over.  I do not know if this is a precursor for overall lower prices but I am keeping an eye on it.  The same extreme overbought conditions persist for the major stock averages.  It is impossible to say how long this can go on.  It's a parabolic run up in my mind and I want to be on board when it turns around.  GE dropped another 1/4 and the volume remains very high.  Gold fell $15 on the futures as the US dollar steadied.  The XAU shed 2 1/8, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  This looks like a turnaround for the gold shares so perhaps we will begin to see some dollar strength going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was higher today even though we gained 140 points.  I'm not exactly sure what's going on there.  I'm still looking at the SPY February puts but will probably let tomorrow pass and wait to see what happens in the beginning of next week.  There still isn't a clear signal that a decline is about to occur.  We are in a momentum move higher and it isn't a good idea to try and guess the top.  All recent declines have been short lived and I'm looking for a more sustained event.  The best that I can do here is monitor the situation and be prepared to act.  But for now the sidelines are the place for me to be.  This will eventually change as conditions warrant if I'm adept enough to recognize the situation.  That remains to be seen.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night.  We'll see how the week finishes trading tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 41 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ was much lower and the S&P 500 opened higher and closed lower for a one day reversal to the downside.  I'm not sure if that means this is the beginning of something lower or just another blip on the upside radar.  Time will tell on that.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The small stocks were lower today and that could mean that things are going to change but one day doesn't make a trend.  I am still looking at the SPY February puts.  Regardless, we remain very overbought and are still basically moving higher in a parabolic blow off in my mind.  I don't know when it will end.  GE was right back down today and lost about 1/2 on extremely heavy volume and was once again the most actively traded issue on the big board.  We'll see if $16 holds.  Gold climbed $20 on the futures as the US dollar had a drop once again.  The XAU gained 2 1/8 and GDX added 1/2.  Volume increased on the rise again.  I still don't know why the US dollar is dropping with US interest rates rising.  I do know that inverse relationship won't last forever.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is a potential short term negative divergence on the RSI for the RUT.  It is potential because we could go higher from here and that would negate the signal.  So it is something to keep an eye on in the near term.  Otherwise the conditions remain the same.  Well above all moving average lines and the technical indicators are all over extended.  The TRAN showed weakness today on heavy volume.  The short term indicators have started to roll over here.  But again, upside tomorrow would turn things back up.  However this index is starting to move sideways and could be an early warning of a change in trend.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll see how things go the rest of this week.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

The Dow had a pause in the party today as it fell 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was much stronger that the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way.  As long as the small stocks continue to show good relative strength, I'll be looking for higher prices even though we are way overbought.  You cannot get in the way of this momentum right now.  Hopefully there will be an opportunity for the SPY February puts in this option cycle.  GE came to life as it rose 3/4 on very heavy volume.  Perhaps $16 is the floor here because there was no news that I could see to raise the stock that much.  I don't have any trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold added $9 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  Rates have increased in the near term yet the dollar cannot find any strength.  This is not the usual relationship.  The XAU gained 1 5/8, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume picked up on the rise.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  January continues to see a parabolic rise in my mind as we set new highs on many of the major stocks indices today.  We are now even further away from the moving average lines.  I keep repeating myself but this will not end well when the time comes.  I will keep an eye on things and try to be short when the inevitable drop occurs.  But I don't think that it will be this week.  We'll get some real estate data in the next couple of days and GDP on Friday.  For now it is still a wait and see time for me.  There are no negative divergences or potential divergences at the moment.  Europe and Asia had gains overnight as the worldwide ride higher continues.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The beat goes on as not even a US government shut down can derail this runaway freight train.  The most watched index gained 142 points on average volume for a new closing high..  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and hit new highs as well.  The market continues higher regardless of the news and that's bullish.  I'm still waiting for some type of negative divergence but we aren't seeing any.  I'm also still considering the SPY February puts but I'm not in any hurry to put this trade on.  Patience is key as we continue to climb higher with no overhead resistance.  There is no timetable for a decline as the technical indicators have essentially stopped working.  GE again is a laggard as it fell almost a dime and was the most heavily traded stock on the NYSE.  I don't know where the bottom is here but it is trying to hold the $16 level.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was down a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The February option cycle has begun and there is plenty of premium built into the options.  That said, I will try and wait for at least some type of signal before attempting the first trade of 2018.  It is hard for me to get calls when we're already overbought and have been for weeks.  It is a parabolic move in my view and it won't end pretty.  But as I've already said, it's impossible to call the top.  Shorts have been squeezed to death and any selling has found ready buyers.  I'll simply have to watch and wait.  It isn't the most exciting proposition but it is my choice for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things as earnings season rolls along. 

Record highs for some of the major stock indices but not the Dow today.  The Dow did gain 53 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is back to trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  RUT managed to turn around as well so the negative sign we were getting there is abating.  The short term indicators on the VIX have turned back down as well.  It looks like we have more gains to come as the S&P 500 has broken above the short term resistance.  I'm still considering the SPY February puts though but will try and wait for a negative divergence.  GE didn't participate again as the earnings report was announced.  It fell another 1/2 on the extremely heavy volume that we've seen all week.  Oversold on the short term here but this stock has really fallen out of favor.  If not for its negative action the Dow would be that much higher.  Gold and the US dollar both had slight gains.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The week did have some selling for a change but we finished near the highs for the week on the broader major averages.  Back to short term overbought again.  We'll get some economic data mid to late next week to possibly trade off of.  We're back to no overhead resistance for the S&P.  Can anything derail the market?  At some point, yes but we certainly don't know when that point will be.  I still say that it's parabolic and dangerous but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  The technical indicators still don't work for sell signals and we aren't getting buy signals when we simply remain overbought.  I'm going to go over everything again this weekend to try and figure out some kind of game plan going forward.  It won't be easy.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another pause today as the Dow dropped 97 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  This could get the summation index to turn around and potentially head lower.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  I'm still considering the SPY February puts but will let this week go by as we have option expiration tomorrow.  The indicators on the VIX are also getting to an area where we should see it turn around and head lower.  There are no negative technical divergences on the major stock averages that I see.  So I'm still trying to be patient before attempting the next trade.  Now some of the short term technical indicators have rolled over on the RUT.  This is potentially an early warning of what's to come.  But there are no guarantees  That may not mean anything.  GE got pounded again ahead of its earnings and lost over 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Near term support has failed.  We luckily stepped aside attempting the calls at the $17.50 level.  We'll see how it goes with the earnings tomorrow.  Gold was off $10 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX declined 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  An interesting week so far as the parabolic run in the Dow seems to be running out of steam.  How we close tomorrow should be a telling sign.  A potential US government shutdown looms but that is something that would eventually get resolved.  I'm not sure how much the market really cares about that.  We have seen an uptick in interest rates which is something that eventually would get the market attention.  But the fundamentals right now are all in stocks favor.  Lower corporate tax rates mean higher profits any way you look at it.  We'll stick with the technicals though and they remain vastly overbought.  I'll keep an eye on the SPY February puts and hope to eventually do a trade there.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

It looks like yesterday was simply a blip on the radar as the Dow continues to power ahead and set records day after day.  The Dow blasted ahead by 322 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is slowing down and moving sideways here.  The VIX is rising and the market is going up, which isn't the normal course of things.  We're in a speculative blow off top in my view.  It is amazing to witness, you must admit that.  Tough to trade though.  The declines are shallow and if you try to get short you get slaughtered.  I am looking at the February SPY puts and that is probably going to be the next trade.  But there are no signals as of yet.  GE is not participating as it lost 7/8 on very heavy volume.  We've shot past $17.50, which is where I was going to consider getting some calls.  I've decided to just step back and let GE go where it will.  There's more going on there than I can figure out.  The earnings on Friday should be the next catalyst.  There's just too much risk right now in that stock for me to take a chance.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Every indicator remains very overbought for the S&P 500, yet we have not seen any meaningful decline.  Whatever selling that does show up only lasts for a day or so.  We are going parabolic and have moved way above the moving average lines on all time frames.  The end will not be pretty and I hope that I am able to take advantage of it.  The trouble is that I certainly don't know when a decline will happen.  The technical indicators haven't worked for weeks.  So I just don't know how long this will go on.  Perhaps all the way through earnings season.  But that's just a guess.  All I can do is keep an eye on things and try to be ready when the inevitable decline does occur.  We saw how things set up at the end of the year for traders to position themselves for this rally.  Perhaps we'll get the same chance on the decline.  Keep an eye on things.  Asia was generally lower last night and Europe was down.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened much higher and then closed lower.  The most watched index dropped 10 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The Dow was up over 250 points in the first half hour.  But we all know that things have gotten way ahead of themselves here.  We're still very overbought and pretty far from the 50 day moving averages on most of the major indices.  One day doesn't make a trend but some type of breather is long overdue.  There's also the possibility that we're at the end of the road for the rally that started in 2009.  But it may be too early to make that call.  But it is possible in my mind.  GE was off 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Earnings due on Friday and I have no trades in mind here.  I might consider getting some calls if we get to $17.50.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  The run up in the gold shares the past two days looks like something manufactured for the January option expiration.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was the first real negative price action that we've seen since the start of 2018.  I do think that it means something.  Whether or not it's the end of the party remains to be seen.  What I would like to see going forward is some king of negative divergence.  As in higher prices for the S&P 500 with lower readings on the short term technical indicators.  Combine that with a summation index that is heading lower would make for a decent attempt at the February SPY puts.  But we'll have to wait and see what the market does for few days before attempting to decipher what's about to happen next.  We are in earnings season now and there is nothing out there that I know of to derail higher profits for the 4th quarter.  But that's just my guess at the moment.  Todays S&P 500 price action was negative and we'll look for downside follow through tomorrow.  The VIX spiked up as well but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher.  Light on the economic data this week but we do have the beige book tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye on them tonight to see if they follow the US lower.  

This has turned into a momentum driven feeding frenzy as the Dow gained 228 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  How many more times can I say that we're overbought and staying that way?  We are getting parabolic but I've said that before too.  Enjoy the ride but I don't know how to trade the SPY at this point.  The sell signals don't work and I certainly won't be trying the calls after this run up that we've already had.  So it's sit back and be patient for now.  GE didn't participate as it lost 1/4 and was the most heavily traded issue on the big board.  I probably won't be trying to trade this before the earnings in a week but you never know.  Gold climbed $16 on the futures as the US dollar dropped almost a point.  The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX added almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Gold has found some buyers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  What more can you say about this incredible rally that we've seen since the start of the year?  The economic data out today was in line with expectations.  It certainly doesn't begin to explain the 200 plus point rally in the Dow.  The market is simply feeding on itself here.  All shorts have been squeezed out again, if there even are any.  I'll say it once again.  This will end badly when it does come to the finish line.  This has all the makings of a speculative blow off top.  Throw in the 5th and final leg up from 2009 and you get the picture.  That is how I see things here at the moment.  I will not chase stocks here because in my mind the day of reckoning will be coming and it probably very well will be sometime this year.  But that doesn't mean we can't just keep going higher in the near term.  It's a long weekend in the US, which leaves only 4 trading days left in the January option cycle.  Very risky but I will look things over this weekend and see what shows up.  I'm leaning towards getting some SPY February puts if a divergence shows up.  But that will take some time.  Until then I'll just have to watch things from the sidelines and try to be patient.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market continues to power higher as the Dow blasted off 205 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  We had a slight pause for a couple of sessions and now it's back to buying.  Overbought all the way around and that is a broken record.  Sell signals mean nothing in this atmosphere.  No overhead resistance as we simply are hitting new highs again.  The market is like a freight train with full steam ahead.  It has almost been non stop since the beginning of the new year.  Enjoy the ride because when it ends, it won't be pretty.  But there's no end in sight at the moment.  GE gained almost a dime on very heavy volume.  It did close off of its highs though.  Getting short term overbought here but not extremely so like the overall market.  Gold was up slightly today despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/8.  Volume was light.  The inflation data was light today, which may be a reason for the sell off in the US dollar today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  More inflation data along with retail sales due out tomorrow.  We are also on the cusp of a long weekend in the US.  The market is overbought and just keeps going up.  It is hard to attempt a trade in this environment because the normal technical signals just don't work.  I'll have to try and not make a trade just for the sake of making one.  I'll probably just have to wait for the February option cycle at this point.  We do have the GE earnings coming out in a week.  But trying to justify doing something there probably isn't worth the risk.  It looks like I could be on the sidelines until after the January expiration next Friday.  Europe and Asia were a mixed bag overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Another pause today as the Dow dropped 16 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  We did finish up from the lows of the session and that tells me we may be done with the near term decline.  The VIX has also rolled back down after hitting its 50 and 200 day moving average.  So my idea of getting some SPY puts is done for now.  At this rate I may not be able to find a SPY trade before the expiration next week.  We remain overbought but that has been the case for quite some time.  The technical signals for selling just haven't worked.  GE was up over 1/3 on pretty heavy volume.  I think that it is safe to say that the bottom has been put in here for GE.  If it ever did get back to $17.50, I would say it's a buy.  Gold bounced back almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/8.  Volume was lighter.  Inflation data on tap in the next couple of days before a long weekend for the US.  Running out of time in the January option cycle.  I certainly don't want to push an agenda here because the risk increases with each passing day.  We're still on a manic bull run in my opinion, with no overhead resistance.  I will once again say that I think we're in the 5th and final wave up on the S&P 500 that began back in 2009.  When it's over we will see quite a change in price.  But to try and guess when it will happen is not a good idea.  As long as the overbought conditions don't lead to any actual declines, the trend is intact.  However trying to trade it is proving pretty difficult for me.  Really, in the beginning of last week was when the SPY January calls should have been purchased.  Anything after that is more of a guess.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trading action.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.    

Still moving up as the Dow gained 102 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  We did finish well off the highs for the day in the S&P 500.  Perhaps we are finally going to get a long overdue, much needed rest.  We remain very overbought in the short term.  I am looking at the SPY January puts for a short term trade.  If we stay positive tomorrow, I may attempt it.  This is an idea that would be risky but it may be worth a shot.  It would also be a trade that would have to exited by the close on Friday.  We are on a bull run here but I think we are near the end.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a bit over 1/4 and the volume remains good.  I will need to see some more decline in order to try the January calls here.  Gold fell $6 on the futures as the US dollar was up a bit.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume picked up a bit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  When checking the charts last night I decided that looking at the SPY January puts might be worth a try.  However today may have been the day to act.  The VIX has already moved back above 10.  The only problem that I can see with this trade is that instead of a drop to relieve the extreme overbought condition, the market could simply move sideways.  That has been the case for numerous previous instances of this same extremely overbought technical condition for the S&P 500 recently.  That is the risk.  We are further away from the 50 day moving average than we have been before.  The market will not stay up here forever.  So we'll see.  If there is some strength in the morning perhaps I'll give it a shot.  But if we open lower, you'll know that it is too late and the optimum time for this trade has passed.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

The Dow took a slight breather to begin the week as it lost 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Very overbought once again and I do expect some decline within the next couple of sessions.  The question is whether it will be enough of a drop to attempt a trade with the SPY January puts.  It is something that I'm considering but probably won't do.  We are still in a rip roaring bull market.  However I will go over the numbers tonight.  GE lost 1/4 and was the most active issue once again on the big board.  What I'm wondering here is if this is the pullback that we need to get long before the earnings due out at the end of next week.  If the short term indicators get back to oversold I might try this idea.  Gold shed a buck or so as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost over a point and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have had a nice run since the middle of December and are due for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit out of sorts with many non market related things to deal with.  One of the keys to be successful at this game is to remain focused.  At least that is one of the keys for me.  The game is hard enough as it is but if you have other things on your mind it will make things even tougher.  At least I am able to recognize my current mental condition and tread lightly for now.  The markets really are simply still just going straight up.  It's already too late in my mind to attempt the SPY calls here unless we see some weakness.  There are no sellers.  Shorts have already been squeezed.  Patience is required but there still may be time left for a trade before the January expiration.  We'll see.  Inflation data along with retail sales at the end of this week.  Asia was higher but Japan was closed.  Europe was mixed.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

It's simply just up, up and away at this point.  The Dow soared 220 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Lighter than expected jobs numbers didn't mean a thing.  The market will view anything as positive at this point.  There isn't much more to point out that I haven't already said.  Overbought all the way around and no overhead resistance.  If we keep just going up every day it will turn into a parabolic advance which won't end pretty.  It would certainly be healthier if we could take a rest but at this rate, I wouldn't count on it.  We've moved so far that I'm not looking at the January SPY calls anymore right now.  GE was up a penny on heavy volume but came off of its highs for the session.  It's hanging around the 50 day moving average which should be the first area of resistance.  I am still considering a trade here because we'll get some movement on the earnings in a couple of weeks.  Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As always the question is where do we go from here?  There's nothing in the way of higher prices.  The market seems to be feeding on itself at this point.  Anybody who tired to get short here is dead.  But I don't know how many shorts were out there.  Even I could recognize the positive set up that that was manipulated last Friday afternoon.  Not taking advantage of it was my first mistake of the new year.  Oh there will be more for sure.  However my ideas were in the right direction and there is plenty of time to make some money trading this year.  It won't always be easy as it has been this week but there will be set ups one way or the other.  Still a couple of weeks to go in the January option cycle with a holiday Monday thrown in there.  Unless something unexpected occurs you can expect higher prices going forward.  We made it to 25000 and the way things are going it looks like 26000 is a few days away.  But I don't believe that.  The volume has been getting lighter as we've moved forward this week.  Sooner or later that will catch up to this rally.  But for now, enjoy the ride.  Europe and Asia were higher as well in a worldwide stampede into stocks.  It seems as if nothing can go wrong for the markets at this point.  But in my mind that makes things tricky going forward from here and perhaps dangerous.  Haven't seen the public in yet though so there's room to roam.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend but they will be as overbought as they have been.  I'll try and find some kind of idea to move ahead.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Dow 25000 has been achieved as we gained 152 points on good volume today.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to trend higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but none of that seems to matter in this environment.  Still overbought and that seems to be the norm from now on.  We all know that will change, we just don't exactly know when.  Those SPY January calls have all made quite a bit money.  They'll probably make some more but I'll be waiting for some weakness before deciding whether to try that idea.  GE was up over 1/3 and the volume remains heavy.  We've made it to the 50 day moving average here and that would have been the target for that trade.  Perhaps the GE calls can be purchased before the January expiration but it would be risky.  The earnings are due out on expiration Friday.  We'll see how things go from here.  Gold was a bit higher today as the US dollar fell back again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Quite a start to the new year as we are screaming ahead in an overbought technical condition.  Anybody that has tried to get short has been squeezed relentlessly.  There have been plenty of sell signals but none of them have amounted to anything.  The drop last Friday was the perfect set up for the calls.  If that wasn't some type of manipulation, I don't know what is.  But nobody really cares as long as the market keeps going up.  Either that or nobody is paying attention.  I guess I'm just bitter because I wasn't astute enough to take advantage of it.  It certainly doesn't matter now.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow and the market reaction to it.  At the rate we are going, no matter what the numbers it will be viewed as positive.  New all time highs day after day with no overhead resistance.  It is a bull market dream and probably has plenty of room to run.  I do not think the general public has been sucked in yet.  When they get here, it will be the end.  Europe and Asia were both up overnight.  We'll close out the first week of 2018 tomorrow.   

More of the same in the march to 25000 as the Dow gained 98 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues its grind higher.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  There's no overhead resistance and apparently nothing in the way of higher prices.  Too late for the January SPY calls unless we see a pullback but I don't expect one anytime soon.  I'm not sure what the next trade will be.  GE continued higher as well and was up 17 cents.  Volume was pretty heavy again and it was the most active issue on the big board again.  I am still kicking myself for not getting into that trade.  It's like they're giving away money if you are a savvy enough trader.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The XAU fell a point and GDX shed 1/4 on good volume.  I'm not sure what's next for the gold shares but they are short term overbought.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  The beige book came and went and the next potential mover is the jobs report on Friday.  I don't have anything in mind for that.  The VIX has moved back down to the lower end of its trend channel and might need to take a pause here.  But the fact of the matter is that all major stock indices are setting new all time highs and we are on an incredible bull run.  There isn't anything that I can see that is in the way of simply continuing to go up.  Overbought and staying that way was the mantra for 2017 and 2018 is starting out the same way.  We're once again pretty far from the 50 day moving averages for many major stock indices.  That condition hasn't led to any sustained declines for months.  We'll simply have to continue to sit back and enjoy the ride.  Asia was generally higher and Europe was up as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Off to the races as an expected positive start to the new year materialized.  The Dow gained 104 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a positive.  I did place an order for the SPY January calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it.  It now looks like the late Friday decline of last week was just a pro set up for the calls to start the new year.  I suppose that I should have been paying more attention but I did not expect that drop in the final half hour last week.  I still like the long side here but the best time to get in has passed.  GE took off as expected and gained 1/2 on heavy volume.  It was the most active issue on the NYSE.  That idea was a winner and I regret not getting in before the end of the year.  In retrospect I should have adjusted the order up since I really though the trade had merit.  Simply another missed opportunity as the dogs of the Dow crew piled into that stock today.  It's too late to try this trade now but perhaps we'll get a retest of the recent lows.  But I doubt it.  Gold added $10 on the futures as the US dollar continues to drop.  I still don't know what is going on here.  A raise in interest rates but the dollar declines?  This is what makes the trading so difficult sometimes.  The normal expectations just don't occur.  However the relationship between gold and the US dollar is acting according to expectations.  The XAU rose 2 7/8, while GDX gained over 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated on the first trading day of the new year.  There I had two good ideas to trade and they both so far would have worked out well but I did not get in them.  I did try but that doesn't add any money to the trading account.  I do not want to chase anything here but I do think that we are on our way to Dow 25000.  There's still plenty of time in the January option cycle but I don't want to trade just for the sake of trading.  I guess I'll take another look at things tonight and try to come up with another idea or two.  We've got beige book due out tomorrow and the employment report to deal with on Friday.  I don't expect any surprises but you never know.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow but I'd expect more upside here in the US.  

Not sure what we saw today as the market fell apart in the final half hour.  The Dow fell 118 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending higher.  Probably just some end of the year squaring off in the final minutes today because there wasn't any news to account for the move.  It did cause the short term technical indicators to roll over though.  I still expect a strong start to the new year for stocks.  Perhaps I'll take a closer look at the SPY January calls over the long weekend.  GE was up about a dime and the volume remains heavy.  My open order is still out there and I'll leave it open in case we get a decline on Tuesday morning.  But I doubt it.  I still think that GE will be finding buyers as the new year begins and I'm afraid that I just didn't get filled on this trade.  Gold added $7 and the US dollar continues to drop.  The XAU and GDX were little changed at the close on light volume.  The gold shares have stalled despite a drop in the greenback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A little spike in the VIX on the close but I don't think that it is the start of a serious decline for stocks.  I would be surprised if the beginning of the year brings lower prices.  But I could be wrong.  GE is another story and I may just be too late there.  The Bollinger bands have contracted to the point where something substantial is going to happen.  My belief is that it will be to the upside.  I'll ponder the possibilities over the weekend.  I finished the trading year with a loss of 15%, mainly due to the laddering of the SPY puts in October.  I suppose it could have been worse.  However it doesn't matter now as it's on to 2018.  I'm guessing we won't see another year that was mainly higher all the time.  Not even a 5% correction for the S&P 500 in 2017 if I remember things correctly.  I really don't think that will be case as we roll the calendar forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower with the exception of the FTSE in last nights trade.  Plenty of charts to check over the weekend to come up with a winning strategy to start off the new year.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stocks climbed in the final half hour and that led the Dow to a gain of 63 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  It was another record close for the Dow in the quest for 25000.  We should get there next week to start off the new year.  Nothing has changed technically speaking.  We're still overbought and staying that way.  GE lost a couple cents and the volume remains heavy.  I adjusted my open order for the January calls here.  I'll pay more for them if it gets filled but I'll also be buying less contracts.  If this doesn't get filled tomorrow, that may be it for this idea.  Gold was up $5 as the US dollar continues to drop.  I'm not sure that I can trust what is happening in these two markets considering the lack of players at their desks.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on extremely light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll finish out the trading year tomorrow.  I finished with a small loss.  I'll calculate the numbers tonight and give a final report tomorrow.  Attempting to ladder up the SPY puts in October was my biggest blunder.  I did have some nice winners along the way during the year as well though.  Moving the trading office in the autumn was more of a hassle than I expected.  None of this matters going forward.  I am now looking at the SPY January calls as well but it may be too late for that.  We'll see what happens with GE tomorrow.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week and the year on Friday.

Another lackluster day of trading the Dow rose 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still in an upwards drift.  The same story as yesterday and all the technical conditions remain overbought.  The market is in holiday mode.  GE dropped another nickel on heavy volume.  I'll have to adjust my price for the January options if I want to get filled before the year ends.  My premium price target won't get filled unless were see a decent drop for GE in the next couple of days and I do not anticipate that will happen.  Gold added $4 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on less volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report on todays market activity.  We are at the point of just waiting for the year to end.  I don't expect any big moves in the final two days.  I'll try and get into the GE January call trade before the close on Friday.  But I'm not going to pay more than I want for this idea.  Some of my indicators for the SPY are getting close to a buy signal despite the overall overbought condition of the market.  Perhaps I'll take a closer look there tonight.  Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed last night.  It is slow all around the world this week.  We'll expect more of the same tomorrow.  

The Dow fell 7 points in lackluster trading.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was extremely light.  The summation index is trying to grind higher.  We're in holiday mode and you can pretty much write this week off.  There's not much economic data coming out and most of the players are away from their desks.  Tread lightly and try to set up your trades for the beginning of the year if you can.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was pretty good.  I'm still trying to get the January calls here.  Gold rose $9 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 2/3, while GDX was up 1/3.  Volume was what passes for average these days.  The gold shares have had a pretty good couple of weeks and have broken above the short term declining tops line.  I'm not sure how long this can last though.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Not much else to say about todays price action.  The thin trading puts little meaning into whatever the results end up being.  We'll have another three days of this.  The overbought technical condition of the market persists.  As it has for the past year.  We're overdue for some type of decline but to try and predict when it will occur has been a losing proposition for quite some time.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  On to Wednesday.  

Today was simply a drift as expected as the Dow fell 28 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is trying to drift higher but has no conviction.  The VIX remains under 10.  No news to report and all technical conditions remain the same.  GE was up 3 cents and the volume here remains pretty good.  I'm still looking to get some January calls before the new year.  Gold found a bid and was up $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still overbought for the stock indices but there isn't anything in the way of higher prices.  I'd expect some type of small Santa Claus rally to begin next week.  However I'd also look for slow trading and thin volume.  Monday is a day off and then it's simply a holiday week.  Many players won't be at their desks.  Tread lightly is my advice.  I still don't have any SPY trades in mind but I will be looking at the long side there.  Otherwise it's time to take a break.  I will check the charts eventually this weekend but taking a step back is what I really have in mind.  Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade.  Happy Holidays to everyone.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We were up over 100 at one point during the session but faded in the afternoon.  It is already feeling like holiday mode for the markets and tomorrow should be a non event.  I'm expecting a drift higher for the next week.  Not much else to report.  GE was basically flat on the day and came off of its highs as well.  My order for the January calls remains open.  Gold and the US dollar were flat today as well.  It is that kind of atmosphere.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing new to report with the holiday approaching.  We are basically going to grind to a halt, with no meaningful activity until the new year.  We may see a mild Santa Claus rally but we've had such a good year already that I don't expect any big gains anytime soon.  I could be wrong but probably not this time around.  I'll still try and get my GE option order filled before the new year but at this rate I may have to increase what I'll pay for them.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow ahead of a long holiday filled weekend.

Another breather for the stock market as the Dow fell 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The tax bill has made it through Congress and awaits the presidents signature.  But like I've already said, what's left to drive prices higher after this?  Overdue, really for some type of pullback.  The technical condition remains the same, very overbought.  It's been this way for weeks on end and it has to end at some point.  There's still no overhead resistance so perhaps the Santa Claus rally will take effect as usual.  GE fell 1/8 on heavy volume.  Possibly starting another leg down here as we've broken through the near term support.  I've still got my open order in for the January calls here but adjusted down the price I'll pay today.  So I've lowered the strike price and the amount I'll pay in the past couple of sessions.  Maybe I should simply forget about this and move on to something else.  Gold was up almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar slipped just a bit.  The XAU gained almost 1 1/2 while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was higher than yesterday.  We've seen the gold shares rise this week so far despite an uptick in short term rates.  Interesting.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a couple trading days remain before we switch into holiday mode.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  As much as I'd like to see a decline, the trend is up and has been for quite some time.  You can't fight that but we are extremely over extended.  The short term sell signals here haven't worked for a while and every small decline has been bought.  Until we see this change, I'll be on the sidelines with respect to the S&P.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

A pause to refresh today as the Dow fell 37 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index tried to get going to the upside but is still stuck in a sideways mode.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We are still very overbought any way that you look at it.  The VIX perked up a little today but it doesn't look like anything serious.  That said, a decline of some sort is due at any time now.  The distance from the 50 day moving average in some of the major indices cannot be ignored.  We are in a positive seasonal time frame but that doesn't mean that we can't see some pullback in the near term.  Even if that does occur, I still feel that the Dow 25000 is coming sooner rather than later.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good.  I canceled my open order for the GE January calls and re-entered it at a lower strike price.  We've been in a sideways channel here for about a month and it looks like the bottom of the channel is about to break.  I would still like to be in this trade before the end of the year.  Gold was flat on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tax bill looks like it will get passed this week.  After that happens, what is left to drive stocks higher in the near term?  A pause would be healthy for the overall condition of the market.  Let the indicators work off the overbought condition and prepare for the next leg up.  Simply continuing straight up would be a recipe for disaster in my opinion.  But I've been wrong before.  The market will be in holiday mode next week so what happens the rest of this week will be important in my view.  So we'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A positive start to the week as the Dow gained 140 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to head up but we'll need to see another day like today to really break the sideways mode.  The NASDAQ did break the 7000 barrier during the session.  Just waiting on Dow 25000 at this point,  What happens after that is up for discussion but there remains no overhead resistance.  We are getting further away from the 50 day moving average in several indexes.  Not to mention the technical indicators are extremely overbought.  So some type of pause or decline here is way overdue.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  I adjusted my open order down a bit as the time decay for the January calls here is in effect.  I'm still a believer in this idea but it may not be the best one.  Gold was up $7 as the US dollar softened.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was light.  Still no real interest in gold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The party rolls on for stocks with seemingly nothing standing in the way of even higher prices.  You have to admit that if the tax bill passes corporate profits will indeed be going up.  At the moment there are enough votes to pass the bill in the House and Senate.  This is probably one of the reasons that stocks seem to simply be on fire.  However we all know how parabolic advances end and it isn't pretty.  But for now we'll just enjoy the ride.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

Record highs abound as the Dow gained 143 points on extremely heavy expiration volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  It's a march to 25000 for the Dow in my opinion.  Overbought, staying there and what more can I say?  There are no sellers and when they do arrive buyers aren't far behind.  We are living in a huge bull run.  I can't say when it will end.  We are extended any way you look at it but it simply hasn't mattered.  Only something out of the blue can derail this thing.  If the tax bill succeeds corporate profits will rise.  That can only mean higher stock prices.  Stay long and look for calls.  GE was up 18 cents on heavy volume.  I'm still waiting for my open order to be filled here.  If it isn't done by the end of the year, I'll be canceling this trade.  I do expect some buying in GE at the beginning of the new year.  Gold was up a buck or so but did finish off of its highs.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Obviously no interest here.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Enjoy the ride as prices trend higher.  We really need to see some type of breather because things are getting pretty far from the 50 day moving average.  I don't mean a day or so of lower prices like we saw this week.  I mean something in the 3% to 5% range that we haven't even seen this year.  That would make for a more healthy run.  Because we are starting to look like we want to head straight up.  Perhaps that would get us to 25000 but it would not look pretty when it drops.  Parabolic moves always end badly.  We're not there yet but it is a possibility.  Perhaps the market will take a rest after the tax bill vote but that remains to be seen.  Moving into the January option cycle and it has an extra week in it and the holidays as well.  Premiums are a bit high for now.  I don't have any SPY trades in the works at the moment.  I'll wait to see what happens with the GE January call open order and go from there.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend as usual and looking for the next trade.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed to finish off the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 76 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving basically sideways but another day like today would change that.  No real reason for the selling other than the short term overbought condition of the market.  Retail sales were better than expected and interest rates remain in check despite yesterdays rise in short term rates.  The RUT was weak again today and is usually a leader but that hasn't worked out lately.  I don't think that this is the beginning of anything sustainable but we'll see.  GE was off over a dime on what passes for average volume these days.  My option ticket for the January calls is getting closer to being punched.  A bit more downside should do it.  Gold rose $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not sure what to expect from the market after the option expiration this week.  Next week will be the last full week of trading for the year.  After that we'll go into holiday mode with many players out for that week.  I don't expect any sharp moves one way or the other.  I think that the passing of the tax plan is already in the market.  If we get some delay on that bill, we could see some selling.  But I don't think anything significant is in the works marketwise near term.  It should be more of the same with a drift higher in price.  Probably new all time highs set each week as we move along.  Perhaps we'll see a near term drift lower to reset the technical indicators before a new move up.  That's a guess as usual.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow. 

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 80 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Sideways movement usually precedes a drop in the summation index when it is in positive territory so we'll see what happens this time around.  It could move sideways for weeks though.  The Fed came and went.  All went as expected.  Retail sales tomorrow could be a catalyst.  The market remains overbought with new all time highs on the Dow.  The S&P was slightly negative today.  But I don't see any reasons not to expect higher prices going forward.  GE was off 15 cents and the volume was lighter.  Still waiting on my open order for the January calls here to be filled.  A bit more downside or time decay should do the trick.  Gold was up $16 as the US dollar dropped today despite the rise in short term rates.  I certainly cannot explain any of that.  The XAU soared 3 points, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume picked up on the rise and that's bullish.  One day doesn't make a trend however.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow continues its climb towards 25000 and I'm guessing that we'll get there before the end of the year.  The positive seasonal effect of December is in full swing.  We are pretty far away from the 50 day moving average and that will have to correct itself eventually.  But for now it's still up, up and away.  The market can stay overbought for quite some time and we've definitely seen that a lot this year.  Stay long, look for calls and enjoy the ride.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a gain of 118 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today with the NASDAQ showing a loss.  Waiting on the Fed tomorrow and I don't expect any surprises.  The song remains the same with a new intra-day high for the Dow and the S&P 500 as well.  Short term overbought and staying there.  GE came to life today and was up 1/4 on good volume.  My open order hasn't been filled but I'll be leaving it out there.  I don't expect a rally here for GE.  Perhaps some more tax loss selling before the end of the year.  I would like to be in this trade before the end of the year.  I expect that there will be some bargain buying or dogs of the Dow purchases at the beginning of 2018.  Gold was little changed and the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are seeing the usual positive option expiration week bias so far.  The technical condition of the market remains overbought.  There are no negative divergences that I see at the moment.  There is nothing standing in the way of higher prices.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe had gains overnight.  We'll see how things shape up with the Fed tomorrow.

More of the same as the Dow added 56 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  My guess is that it will as there is nothing standing in the way of higher prices.  We'll get the Fed announcement on Wednesday and I don't see any surprises coming out of that.  My idea of a decline here was wrong and the positive seasonality should kick in for the rest of the month as well.  Unless we get something out of left field, look for the trend to continue higher.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains pretty good.  My open order for the January calls is close to being filled.  I'm leaving it out there but there's a strong chance that GE will simply trend sideways from here.  That's the feeling I get when I look at the daily chart.  The Bollinger bands are starting to get closer together and that's usually a sign of some type of decent move to come.  We'll see.  Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar was flat.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  The Fed raising interest rates isn't positive for gold.  However the news has been already telegraphed and perhaps there won't be much of a reaction in gold when the announcement is made.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Options expiration week and the Fed.  We should hit new intra-day highs at some point.  Short term overbought, staying that way and it has been a broken record all year long with that mantra.  It has to end at some point but I certainly don't know when that will be.  Keep looking to the call side.  Asia was higher and Europe lower with the exception of the FTSE.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The jobs report came in a bit better than expected and the Dow rallied 117 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn up here but the action is really just sideways right now.  The Dow and the S&P 500 closed at new records but the intra-day highs haven't been beaten just yet.  It looks like they will be though.  Once again the decline that I was anticipating just didn't materialize regardless of the technical indicators.  That's been the case all year.  At least this time I didn't try to trade on it.  What can I say?  It has been an incredible rally and it just keeps on going.  I am keeping an eye on the RUT here though.  GE finished flat on the day and the volume was good.  I continue to leave in the open order for the January calls here.  Gold lost a couple of bucks on the futures but did come up off of the lows.  The US dollar finished a positive week with another gain.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The fundamentals don't favor gold right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market continues higher and there is nothing in the way for more gains to accrue.  The decline I was looking for was another bad idea.  The positive seasonality should take continue to take effect with more new all time highs before the end of the year.  We'll get the Fed next week but there shouldn't be any surprises and the market will simply shrug off another rise in short term rates.  We'll get retail sales as well.  It's also options expiration week.  My short term technical take on the S&P 500 here is that we are short term overbought again but not extremely so.  There's room for the indicators to move higher along with the index.  Medium term the index is very overbought without any even minor decline for the whole year.  This won't go on forever but trying to pick the top is a guessing game.  I'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY until the January option cycle begins.  I don't have any solid ideas there at the moment.  But looking at the long side seems to be the only way to go.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow got a bump higher today as the most watched index rose 70 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  This could move the summation index back up but also show sideways here as well.  Tomorrows price action to me is important.  It will determine the weekly close and whether we are turning negative here or not.  A positive day will negate my theory of lower prices coming.  A decline would solidify in my mind the idea that we are in for a pause in the rally.  I'm not sure what the numbers will be but the markets reaction to them is the key.  GE was up a nickel on the usual good volume lately.  GE needs to hang in here or the near term support will be broken.  Gold lost $17 on the futures as the US dollar was up again.  It hasn't been a huge rally in the dollar as of late but gold has certainly lost some of its luster.  The XAU and GDX were both flat and came up off of their lows.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned back down here and I don't know if it's a precursor of better price action to come.  All we can do at this point is wait to see what the market says tomorrow.  If it's a solid upside session, we'll probably go on to see new all time highs next week.  If not then my idea of lower prices for a change will have a chance.  That's my best take on things at the moment.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll check the employment report in the morning and finish out the trading week from there.   

Another mixed bag for the stock market as the Dow fell 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has turned around here but hasn't begun to drop yet in earnest.  The NASDAQ was higher today and the S&P 500 little changed.  I believe we're at an important juncture here.  Perhaps the jobs report on Friday will clarify things.  We have negative divergences along with the same overbought conditions that we've seen all year.  Even though the month of December is considered a pretty positive one, I think we are finally going to drop here.  I could be wrong.  GE was off a dime on average volume.  Gold was basically flat on the day as the US dollar continued to move higher.  The XAU lost a point and GDX dropped 1/4 on better volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The RUT continues lower but it hasn't been the leader as usual lately.  The VIX dropped as well and actually could be turning back down here.  So perhaps my idea of an actual decline here is off.  I would expect tomorrow to simply be a wait and see session ahead of Friday.  I haven't done a trade in the SPY for a while.  I really need to be mentally prepared to trade that particular vehicle.  With the office move still not completely settled, there is no rush to attempt anything here.  Success in the game requires your best effort and I don't think that I can give it that at the moment.  Trading GE is a different animal.  It is a slow mover and does not require as much attention.  Asia was lower and that was generally the case for Europe as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Today we had a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow.  The most watched index dropped 109 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 to the downside.  This might just turn the summation index lower.  The overall market was lower as well but not as much as the Dow.  However it does seem to me that the tone of the market is changing here.  Tomorrow could be interesting.  Perhaps this is finally the beginning of a sustained decline.  We'll find out soon enough.  If we get weak breadth tomorrow that will definitely turn the summation index around.  Stay tuned.  GE dropped almost 20 cents and the volume remains good.  The order for the January calls remains open here for me.  Gold dropped almost $10 today as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  It looks like another leg down for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing OK but still somewhat involved with the hassle of the office move.  We were and are still pretty high above the daily 50 day moving average for the S&P 500.  A return to that level would not be a surprise.  It comes in around 2575.  Also extended above the 50 week moving average on a weekly basis as well.  The potential negative RSI divergences on some of the major averages might finally come to fruition.  We'll know in due time.  But I do think that perhaps this time we will see some decline as it has happened in December before.  If GE breaks through 17.50/17.60 I may have to rethink that potential trade.  That appears to be the near term support.  This may not be the best idea in the world either.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in yesterdays trade.  We'll keep a close watch on tomorrow.  

Interesting start to the week as we opened much higher and sold off for the rest of the day.  The Dow did manage to hold on to a gain of 58 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ had one day reversals to the downside.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Will this be the beginning of some sort of actual downside?  Time will tell on that.  I have seen weakness in the beginning of December before though.  Not anything new on the news front today.  As I stated last week, once we get the tax reform approval, what else is there remaining to drive the market higher?  GE was up a few cents on heavy volume.  I've decided to stick with the GE January call trade for now.  Some more drop here will probably get the order filled.  Gold lost a few bucks today.  The US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU fell 7/8 and GDX shed about 1/3.  Volume was average.  Still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing better.  I'm still adjusting to the office move but the markets won't wait.  The VIX has come to life and volatility has returned for now.  There's still room for it to move higher from here.  The small stocks are showing relative weakness and that is not a plus for the bulls.  There are also some potential negative RSI divergences on the daily index charts.  So we can make a case that this time we will see some downside.  On the plus side there's still no overhead resistance and no positive trend lines have been violated.  So we'll see where we go from here.  We'll get the employment report on Friday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the trading action tonight.  

Today we got a version of Wall streets wild ride as the Dow plummeted over 300 points this morning on an indictment of a former Trump staffer.  However the market eventually shrugged it off and finished the first trading day of December with a loss of 40 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Volatility has returned to the market place.  It seems as though all bad news is discounted in a matter of hours and money simply pours into stocks.  Overbought, staying that way and there is no overhead resistance.  That is a recipe for higher prices going forward.  I don't know how long this thing can go on but there seems to be no end in sight.  Declines remain being bought.  Shorts continue to get squeezed.  Sit back and enjoy the ride I suppose.  But I still say that eventually this will end badly.  GE lost 3/8 on heavy volume.  Here's a stock that just can't get out of its own way.  Talk about not participating in the rally.  I'm really beginning to wonder if the January calls are even worth doing.  Gold was up $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had small gains but they fell off of their highs.  There's still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm about exhausted from the moving of the office.  It is affecting how I think at the moment so all trades are off with the exception of the open order for the GE January calls.  But the reality of the situation is that the market doesn't care about how I feel.  The game rolls on regardless of individual circumstances.  The key is recognizing when you are not 100% and scaling back when that occurs.  We're on a bull run.  Today could have done some damage if the market kept dropping but it turned around and came back.  As long as that happens we're going to go higher.  We haven't gotten to the point where everybody and their brother are talking about stocks.  When your Uber driver starts telling you what stocks to buy, then the market will be in trouble.  Keep that in mind going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  I'll try and check the charts this weekend but it could be just a time to take a break for me.  It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.