Stocks took a beating today to end the month of April. The Dow fell 939 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower again. Oversold and staying that way for stocks and that is never a good sign. The S&P 500 remains oversold and closed at a new low. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down. It appears that the support will not hold up. Not sure how far we'll go down from here. The employment cost index was higher than expected. The Fed will be raising rates next week. Stocks are being sold regardless of the earnings news. The bearish atmosphere is thick. Yesterdays rally is forgotten. Will anything change next week? The S&P closed below the 4200-4150 zone so it could be a case of look out below. Gold was up six bucks on the futures but was much higher during the session. The US dollar was lower but interest rates continue to rise. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My GDX May calls are just about to be stopped out for a loss. Will probably happen Monday morning unless the gold shares rally out of nowhere. I'm debating whether to try this trade again next week or simply head to the sidelines. GDX remains short term oversold and closed below the 36 level which I had pegged as the point it had to hold on a medium term basis. The fundamentals don't look good for gold at the moment either. However the US dollar is very overbought and has moved up in a straight line. Any break there would be viewed as a positive for the precious metal. However if the market continues to collapse it will take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved right back up and remains overbought. This isn't the usual behavior for the VIX and I'm having trouble figuring it out. It is above 33 again and it usually doesn't stay at a high level for long. That said, if the market does continue lower from here the VIX could easily reach 40 or above. The summation index is moving lower and we are below the zero line. The buying we've seen lately hasn't held up. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A rally springs out of nowhere as the Dow climbed 614 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today could get it moving sideways. The market is trying to hold the support here and doing its best. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. Our call/put ratio is showing too much bearishness. GDP came in negative and below expectations. Stagflation is in the news again. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. Perhaps we can get some kind of rally going here with all the bears out there. However even if the market holds up here I do think that eventually the support at the 4200-4150 level for the S&P will be broken. Todays big rally out of the blue is classic down market price action. Maybe the rest of the May option cycle can bring us back to the down trend line and set up the SPY puts. Wishful thinking most likely. Gold was up $8 on the futures as it had a turnaround during the session. The US dollar continues to rise while interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU gained 2 7/8, with GDX up 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX May calls are still losers as they are too far out of the money. The poor entry is the doom of this trade most likely. However if we get another day like today for GDX tomorrow, we'll be back to the 36 level and perhaps this idea will have a chance. That is also wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today but remains short term overbought. I'm still not getting a good idea of what is going on with this indicator at the moment. This still is an important week for stocks. So far we've held the support for most of the major averages. Unless there is a dramatic downside slump tomorrow the support will hold for now. My view is that the support will be taken out eventually. However with all the bears out there now perhaps some kind of rally will have them retreat. Maybe if we get some more short covering like we saw today the negative mood will abate. We'll see if we get any reaction to the employment cost index tomorrow. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We bounced around today as the market is trying to make up its mind what to do here. The Dow gained 61 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down and has passed through the zero line. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and at the last line of support. Ditto for the other major stock averages. Nothing was settled today as for where we go from here. Perhaps tomorrows GDP data will decide the markets near term fate. We're due for some kind of bounce but with the summation index moving lower the trend is down. Gold lost $15 on the futures and is now clearly below the $1900 level. The US dollar is still moving up and today interest rates joined it. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on pretty light volume. My GDX May calls are solid losers and a close this week around the 36 level doesn't seem to be in the cards unless we see a dramatic turnaround in the next two sessions. At the rate it's going the trade will be stopped out tomorrow. GDX also remains short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is short term overbought. I'm not sure where it goes from here. Normally I'd say it will drop from here and stocks will move higher but these are not normal times so it seems. The big tech earnings came in mixed today. More are due out tomorrow. There's also employment cost data out on Friday. So there will be excuses for the markets to move. The question is whether the support will hold or not. We'll know soon. Asia was lower with the exception of China while Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Stocks sank today as the Dow fell 809 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We'll take our cues from there. Yesterday I thought that we would hold in here at the near term support for the S&P. There's still a chance as we have closed today right on it but the tone of things is pretty negative. The S&P is short term oversold and staying that way. Perhaps the big tech earnings can save things here but it seems only a matter of time before we break down. The summation index appears to be heading through the zero line again unless we see a dramatic short term turnaround. At this point I'm not counting on that. The NASDAQ once again led the way lower. Tomorrow will probably tell the story of where we are going from here. Gold was up six bucks on the futures as it tries to hold the $1900 level. The US dollar continued higher and interest rates continued lower. The XAU dropped 3 7/8, while GDX slid 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares are following the market lower. My GDX May calls are showing a loss. I may just take the loss here and try a lower strike price if we keep dropping. GDX is now short term oversold and this is where it technically makes sense to try the calls. But if the market does collapse as the summation index goes through the zero line, the gold shares will probably head much lower too. Interesting times to be sure. I am still a believer in the gold shares though. If they finish the week around the 36 level for GDX the weekly chart pattern for higher prices will still be in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped and is now above 33 as volatilty takes center stage. Short term overbought as well. I'm not sure what to expect here. The weekly indicators here still have room to go higher. Once again tomorrow will be important as we are on the brink of breaking the near term support for many of the major stock indices. Tonights after the bell big tech earnings will give us a clue. With the summation index moving lower it isn't a good sign for the bulls. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still heading lower. The NASDAQ led the way today and that is a plus for the bulls. A lot of big tech earnings are out this week and perhaps they can save the market from a complete break down. I'm getting the feeling after today that they will. The major stock indexes have held up where they need to for now. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold but today could be the beginning of a move back up to the down trend line. We'll know more by the end of the week. However if we turn back down this week and go through the zero line on the summation index it will get ugly. That's my view on where we stand at the moment. It is an important week for stocks. Gold got clobbered as the futures fell $35 and dipped below $1900. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. The XAU lost 5 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good again to the downside. My open order for the GDX May calls was filled. I thought about adjusting it last night as gold was weak on the futures but didn't as I did not think we'd see the losses in the gold shares that we saw today. The entry on the trade was lousy. GDX slid right through the weekly down trend line at 36 and was off better than two points during the session. My GDX call trade is showing a small loss. Plenty of time left for this trade but it could be the case of probably getting out sooner rather than later. The stop loss order is in. The gold shares are short term oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX reversed course today as well but remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators are trying to roll over though. I don't have a good feel for the VIX here. Big tech will probably be the key for the market this week. Most of the important companies have their earnings reports in the coming days. We'll also a look at 1st quarter GDP on Thursday. Today was promising for the bulls but we're not out of the woods yet. Europe and Asia were lower overnight as selling took over around the globe. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The market got clobbered today as the realization of the end of easy money takes hold. The Dow fell 981 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and once again headed to the zero line. If we don't turn around soon things will get worse. We just went through the zero line on the summation index in January. But as always the market will go where it wants. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. That's never a good sign as the bears are in charge. The Dow led the way down percentagewise today but not by much. Buyers have vanished. There's nothing to think that Monday will be any different. Gold was off $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher while interest rates remained steady. The XAU fell 5 1/3 and GDX was off 1 1/8. Volume was good. I did place an order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there for now. Support for GDX on the weekly chart comes in at the downtrend line that was broken recently. This is at approximately the 36 level. GDX is getting oversold on the indicators for the short term. However if the market goes into freefall and through the zero line on the summation index it will probably take the gold shares with it. In that case this trade won't work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a big spike and closed above its 50 day moving average. It is almost completely overbought on the short term indicators. Another day like today would certainly do it. The small stocks here are heading to their recent levels of support. If things don't hold up here soon it will get ugly. I suppose that the fact that we've started to drop before even getting back to the down trend line in the S&P isn't a good sign. The 70 point S&P 500 rally out of nowhere on Tuesday was a classic down market sign. There will be plenty to digest over the weekend. Europe sank and Asia was generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a dramatic one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 368 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators rolled back over and are already in oversold territory. There were more indications from the Fed that the easy money policy is over, which we already knew. Interest rates are going up and liquidity is being pulled back. It's hard for stocks to go up when there isn't any money. We'll see how long this lasts but we continue to be negative on the medium term outlook for now. Gold finished slightly negative on the futures and came back from the worst levels of the day. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares got slammed, with the XAU losing 8 3/4 and GDX shedding 2 points. Volume was good to the downside and the up trend line for GDX was broken. Not completely oversold for GDX but I will most likely put in an order for the May calls overnight. However the fundamentals for gold are pretty negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around and was higher today. The picture there has changed as the short term indicators have turned back up. The VIX did not make it back to the support line this time around. Not sure where it goes from here. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a mixed bag today as the Dow gained 249 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The S&P 500 was slightly lower but the NASDAQ fell by more than 1%. The S&P remains below its 200 day moving average. Earnings are now in the drivers seat for market action either way. We do get some more Fedspeak tomorrow though. The technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to move higher. We're still hoping for a rise to the down trend line there in order to get short. Gold ended the day flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX made it back to mid-range but not completely oversold. This has been the pattern for the past two months. The option premiums are high with the extra week in the May cycle or perhaps I'd give the GDX May call trade a try right here. Buyers for the gold shares continue to show up. However I've decided to hold off for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it approaches the support trend line in effect since last year. The short term indicators are declining which implies higher stock prices going forward. We'll have some decisions to make if the VIX reaches the support line. Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A rally springs up out of nowhere as the Dow soared 499 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to move sideways. Some short covering today to be sure as there was no news to speak of to cause buyers to suddenly appear. The S&P 500 is still oversold but not extremely. Perhaps this is the beginning of a move that takes us back to the down trend line that has been in effect since January. That is the set up that we're looking for. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow. Gold slumped $35 on the futures. The US dollar continued higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 4 1/4, while GDX slid 1 1/8. Volume was average. The gold shares need a rest. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. Hopefully we'll get to a fully oversold condition which would set us up for the GDX May calls. GDX now sits on an up trend line that began in February. Another day like today will break that line. We'll keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but failed to close below its 200 day moving average. Trend line support remains in place. The VIX also remains above the 20 level. Not getting a good feel for what is going on there. Today we had a good across the board rally for the major stock indices. How long it lasts is another question. Volume hasn't been all that great lately. So we'll see where it goes. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the after hours headlines.

The market tried to rally today but failed again as the Dow fell 39 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trending lower. My thinking is that we are due for some kind of bounce or rally here but the market will go where it wants. Plenty of bearishness around so it would not be a surprise to start heading the other way. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold along with the other major stock averages. Not a lot of economic data out this week but we will have some Fedspeak. 1st quarter earnings get started as well. On the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold rose $7 on the futures today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX were both flat on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought. Waiting on a pullback here in order to try the May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be signaling higher stock prices in the near term. The trendline support at 19 is still in place. If we could get back to that line on the VIX along with a light volume rally in the S&P to around the 4600 level, it would set us up for the May SPY puts. For now we'll have to be patient. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We ended the week on a sour note as the Dow fell 113 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up but hasn't been successful. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and back below its 50 day moving average. Earnings season is beginning and perhaps that can get things going positive again. However with the Fed raising rates and cutting off the easy money it could be tough sledding for stocks going forward. The down trend line for the S&P 500 comes in at 4600. If we can somehow make it back to there the SPY May puts would be the play. There's an extra week in the May option cycle so premiums will be higher than usual. Gold dropped almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. There seems to always be buyers for the gold shares lately. GDX remains both short and medium term overbought. Hoping for some type of pullback in order to try the calls there again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and bounced off of its 200 day moving average. It looks like it could go either way from here. For now we are going to stick with our longer term market view that prices will be going lower. Inflation does not appear to be going away and rates are on the rise. The Russia/Ukraine conflict drags on. We'll keep our eyes on the potential inverse head and shoulders patterns that appear on many of the major stock indice charts. But I still hold on to the view that they won't pan out. We'll have a long weekend to try and figure out what to do next. But with higher option premiums we'll probably remain on the sidelines next week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.

The bounce that we've been waiting for finally showed up as the Dow gained 344 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index sideways. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside and that's a plus. The inflation data was high but the market shrugged it off. That's another positive. The S&P 500 is short term oversold. I'm expecting more upside in the near term. Option expiration is tomorrow with the Friday holiday. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 2/3, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was average. The gold shares remain short term overbought and are now above the upper Bollinger band. There has been however no sustained selling here and that bodes well for the bulls. I'm looking to purchase the GDX May calls when we see some gold share weakness. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are rolling over. It will be interesting to see what happens if we make it back down to the support line here that has been in effect since November. That could again set things up for the SPY puts. Or not. We have plenty of potential head and shoulders reversal patterns on the major stock indices. They would imply a trip back to new all time highs. I said before that I don't think these patterns will prove to be valid. Time will tell on that but I'm still a believer in lower stock prices for the medium term. We'll let the market show us the way. Europe and Asia were generally higher. We'll close out the shortened week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the market opend higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 87 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving down. The inflation data came in high as expected. The stock and bond markets rallied at the open. However stocks lost their momentum and rolled over for the rest of the day. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. Only 2 days left in this weeks trading. I'd expect some kind of bounce before the end of the week but who knows? I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold gained around $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. The XAU rose about 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3. The gold shares did drop from their best levels of the day. Volume was average. I adjusted the stop on my GDX April call order and it eventually got filled. It was a lousy exit to this trade that could have been worth more had I managed it better. I guess I just got greedy. The gain was 160%. The gold shares remain short term overbought but I still like the calls again if we ever do get oversold. Mentally I'm disappointed that the GDX trade didn't go as good as it could have. I should have locked in a bigger profit. But as always that trade is done and it doesn't matter now. You've got to keep moving forward in the game. The VIX was a little lower today and is short term overbought. It too says some kind of bounce is imminent. That doesn't mean it will happen though. The market tried to rally today and failed. We'll see how it reacts to the producer prices tomorrow. Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of China and Hong Kong. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Lower to begin the week as the Dow lost 413 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower. We opened with a gap down and never recovered. Probably selling in front of what promises to be a high consumer inflation number tomorrow. Producer prices are due out on Wednesday. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and closed below its 50 day moving average. The NASDAQ led the way down today and that is not a plus. Anything goes tomorrow including a good drop or a short covering rally. Only 3 trading days left in the week. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures but finished well off of the highs for the session. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was light. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the gold shares as they opened higher and closed lower. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative for the bulls. I'm still in the GDX April call trade which is still positive for now. GDX is touching the upper Bollinger band and short term overbought. The daily chart is also forming a rising wedge pattern that is usually bearish. I should probably already be out of this trade but I now may hold it until Wednesdays producer prices. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around and moved higher. The short term indicators are getting overbought. On Friday the VIX looked like it was implying more buying for stocks but did a complete turnaround. The market goes where it wants. Who knows, maybe the CPI won't be so bad. But I doubt it. Asia was lower and Europe finished slightly down. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Back and forth was the name of the game today and the Dow ended with a gain of 137 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P is hanging around its 200 day moving average and is getting short term oversold. Waiting on the inflation data due out on Tuesday. Option expiration week is on tap and it's also a short week with a Friday holiday. I'm not exactly sure where the S&P goes from here. On the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher earlier. Interest rates rose. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume remains light here. GDX is right at the breakout level but we'll need to see a pick up in volume to get through there. Getting short term overbought for GDX as well. My thinking is that the gold shares will break out to the upside on Tuesdays inflation report. My GDX April calls are in the black. The risk of holding this trade increases with each passing day as time is running out on the April options. However I'm inclined to hold this trade until Tuesday at this point. I'll ponder what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today but the overall market was down. Hanging around the 200 day moving average here and the short term indicators appear to be rolling back down. This imples higher prices coming up for stocks. We'll see. I'll be going over the charts the next couple of days and getting ready for expiration week. The market is still at the mercy of headline risk. Europe and Asia had gains to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A reprieve from the recent selling today as the Dow gained 87 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. After selling for the early part of the session, stocks made it back to plus territory. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up here. The TRAN has stopped its freefall and there appears to be a bullish hammer now on the daily candlestick chart there. There's also a small hammer on the NASDAQ daily chart but it was the underperformer today. It looks like most of the major averages are trying to hang in at their 50 day moving averages. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume is still light for the gold shares as there is not much interest here still. My GDX April calls gained some ground. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up. If that is successful then the GDX call trade will be successful as well. I'm trying to hold this trade until Tuesdays inflation data is out. Only 5 days left in the April option cycle as next Friday is a holiday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the daily candlestick chart here is implying a lower VIX in the coming sessions. The short term technical indicators are mid-range. Option expiration week is almost upon us and right now the market has the feeling that the positive bias will show up. But that's just a guess and hasn't happened yet. We're still at the mercy of headline risk as the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict is not going away. My thinking on the GDX trade is that inflation will be high and money will flow into gold. Of course the technical set up there is more important and I'm hoping for a break out above 40 before option expiration. We'll see. Asia and Europe were both lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

More selling today as the Dow fell 144 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has stopped moving up and turned lower today. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus for the bulls. The TRAN continues to drop straight down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down and are moving lower. There's still room to go before getting short term oversold. The Fed is scaling back the easy money and the market needs time to get used to that. Liquidity is the issue. You may start to hear about a potential head and shoulders bottom being put in on the S&P daily chart. I don't think it will be valid if it does occur. Gold finished flat on the futures after moving both up and down. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range. I did decide to place an order for the GDX April calls today. It was filled when the gold shares dropped after the release of the Fed minutes. This is a risky ordeal with only 6 days left in the April option cycle. It is showing a small profit. Ideally I'd like to hold this trade until the inflation data due out next Tuesday. However it may get stopped out before then or I may simply decide to sell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher but closed down from its best levels of the session. The short term indicators here are pointing up. Not sure where it goes from here but the trendline from last November is now still in place. If it holds I'm pretty sure that we won't be going back up to set new all time highs in the stock market anytime soon. But time will tell on that. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We moved lower today as the Dow fell 280 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up but another day like today would change that. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a plus for the bears this time around. Todays price action turns the short term indicators down for the S&P 500 but we're still more overbought than oversold. Not exactly sure where we're headed from here. The Fed minutes tomorrow may provide a reason to buy or sell. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. The TRAN continues to drop hard. Gold was off about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and broke out to a new recent high. Interest rates moved higher yet again. The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX dropped 7/8. Volume was average. The short term technical indicators for GDX have rolled over and they have room to go lower. However any recent selling in GDX has been met with buyers and I'm wondering if that will be the case this time around. I may try the GDX April calls here but I'll have to go over things tonight before I decide. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped back above 20 and its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators are beginning to rise but remain oversold. After breaking the trendline from November yesterday the VIX has moved right back above it. So that was a possible false break. We'll know if it was in the coming sessions if we remain above the line. That would spell trouble for stocks with more selling. But we'll have to wait and see what happens. It is a caution sign to be sure. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Positive to begin the trading week as the Dow gained 103 points on average volume. The advance /declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ had a good day and led the way higher. That's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent day as well and remains short term overbought. Not a lot of data out this week. We'll get the Fed minutes on Wednesday and that seems to be most interesting report at this point. We'll see if today was the beginning of another leg up as the week goes on. Gold added $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were generally steady. The XAU was off almost a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. I'm still interested in the GDX calls but it remains short term overbought. Any selling in the gold shares does attract buying though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and broke the support line that had been in effect since November. This indicator is saying higher prices are coming despite the extended short term oversold condition in the VIX. If this is true perhaps we are going back to set new all time highs. It has been quite a turnaround for the stock market and right now the technical indicators are saying we're going higher. Europe and Asia were higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back and forth to close out the trading week as the Dow gained 139 points on average volume. The advance/declines wwere positive. The summation index is moving higher. The jobs report came in where expected with buyers and sellers taking turns with the price action. The Dow was the leader to the upside. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but perhaps a temporary bottom is in place on the daily charts. The TRAN got clobbered today and that may be something to keep an eye on. The NASDAQ remains below its 200 day moving average. Gold fell $25 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The gold shares rallied with the XAU up 4 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume is still light here but you cannot argue with price. Gold down and the gold shares up is bullish. Short term overbought for the gold shares. Any selling here though is immediately met with buyers. Is there still a chance to try the GDX April calls with less than 2 weeks to go in the April option cycle? Perhaps but being overbought presents some risk to be sure. Also if a cease-fire were to occur in the Russia/Ukraine conflict there would most likely be a rush to the exits. I'll consider the possibilities over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below 20. Still short term oversold and the up trend line from November remains intact for now. Not sure where the VIX is headed from here and I'm not about to guess. I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with some sort of game plan for next week. My thinking is that the market will move up from here in the short term but who knows? Some economic data due out next week but nothing on inflation. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.