A nice move higher as the Dow gained 211 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  This should turn the summation index around to the upside but not by a lot.  The short term indicators for the S&P are turning back up.  No guts, no glory as it is probably too late to purchase the SPY April calls.  But we'll see.  I do think that we are going to head higher for the April option cycle which has three weeks to go.  GE gained a dime on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar had very slight gains.  The XAU and GDX didn't do much today on light volume.  I'm still considering the GDX April calls if we hit the up trend line.  Mentally I'm pretty tired today and will be cutting the blog short.  The 1st quarter is over and it was pretty good for stocks.  We'll see how we begin April on Monday.  I'm still bullish here for the S&P 500 but the ideal time to purchase the SPY calls may have already passed.  Gold didn't follow through to the downside so perhaps if we can just hang around next week, I'll try the GDX April calls as my next trade.  I'll have to check all the charts over the weekend and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were higher as well, so it seems there is plenty of money to buy going around for now.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Higher today as the Dow gained 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around again or at least move sideways.  I certainly didn't have the guts to buy the SPY April calls here but perhaps I should have.  Light volume is always a concern and that's what we've gotten this week.  End of the month tomorrow.  RUT and TRAN were both higher again today and that's a plus.  The VIX is looking somewhat constructive here as well for higher prices going forward.  Another Brexit vote tomorrow but that concern hasn't really affected the market here in the US.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold found plenty of sellers today as the futures dropped twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 5/8.  Volume was good.  We are almost back to the up trend line from November for GDX at about 22.2.  This will be the moment of truth once again as that line has held up numerous times.  It is also just about the same level as the 50 day moving average.  This is the logical area to try the GDX April calls.  There's still three weeks to go in the April option cycle.  The problem is that the short term technical indicators are not even close to being oversold.  Hence this could be the decline that breaks that up trend line.  I'll be keeping a close eye on it here.  If we stall around the line after todays sharp drop, I'll probably try the calls.  If we continue lower in a hurry, I won't make the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has been moving sideways this week.  The short term technical indicators are at about mid-range.  I do think that we'll be moving higher from here.  The trouble is that there is no clear technical signal.  I don't want to make this a guessing game.  Sometimes you have to wait and this appears to be one of those types of times.  I'll keep an eye on things as usual, especially the gold shares right here.  But I'm thinking that it's best to let the month end tomorrow and go back over everything this weekend.  That's the plan for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Weaker today as the Dow lost 32 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trying to move sideways but continues lower.  The S&P 500 appears to be in a holding pattern following Fridays big drop but I'm still thinking that it will have a bullish resolution.  The overall market was a lot weaker than the Dow today and that is not a positive.  But the TRAN was positive and RUT finished well off of its lows.  No clear signal yet though as most of the short term technical indicators remain mid-range.  I'd like to have the guts to get some SPY April calls here but I probably don't.  Only two trading days left in this month.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was slightly lower while the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was light.  Maybe just waiting for GDX to get back down to the up trend line is the right move going forward.  Needless to say the trading never gets easier.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting out this week is an option since there isn't really any rush to do anything without a clear signal.  So perhaps patience is the best course of action for now.  I've gone over the charts and I'm still not exactly certain what to do here.  I think that I'll wait to see how things go tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were both lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  They're still trying to figure out Brexit.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A nice gain today as the Dow rose 141 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the RUT was up as well.  I'm just looking for a spot to buy the SPY April calls but the time may already have passed.  The VIX has come back down from testing the peak that we saw in early March.  The short term technical indicators there have rolled over or are about to.  It's just a matter of the timing to get long as I don't think that a bigger decline is in the cards right now.  GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was light.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares did not follow as both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Waiting for a retest of the up trend line here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting to see what happens next here as my guess is that we'll be heading to the upside.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn around and I think they'll be successful.  Still plenty of time in the April option cycle so the premiums remain pricey.  But if the timing is right that will all take care of itself.  End of the month and the 1st quarter coming on Friday.  I'm not expecting any earth shattering moves like we saw on Friday but who knows?  For now it's watch and wait but I do favor the long side for stocks at this juncture.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight. 

We did not see the downside follow through to Fridays debacle as the Dow rose 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market ignored the results of the Trump/Russia investigation that could have been viewed as a positive.  I would have expected some sort of rally on the news of no collusion or the release itself now being out of the way.  We did bounce around today with the selling holding up at around the 2790 area on the S&P.  I am considering getting some SPY April calls here but it's tricky.  The technical indicators have gotten back to the midway point, so they're not completely oversold.  RUT finished higher today though and that has been the leader.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold has buyers as the futures were up almost $10.  The US dollar was flat.  The XAU added 1 7/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Overbought here and I'll have to wait to see if we get back to the up trend line.  Another missed trade here but at least now we have an idea of what to do and the negative seasonal factor will be gone.  Didn't have any effect this time around anyway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The inverted yield curve is another topic for discussion in the market these days.  Recession is the prediction there.  Possible, yes but the question is when?  It is inevitable that another recession will occur.  The flight to bonds recently seems to imply that we're already there.  The only reason I'm stating this is because it affects the stock market and out trading.  The Fed has already said that rates are done rising for now.  That's a positive backdrop.  We're still in a seasonally positive period for stocks as well.  I'm beginning to think that Friday was a one day overreaction to the 3 month bill being higher than the 10 year note.  But that's guess for sure and only time will prove if it's right or wrong.  I'm still going to take a long look at getting some SPY April calls tonight.  Asia and Europe were both lower overnight with Asia dropping in line with Fridays US drop.  Europe not so much.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight price action.

We experienced a very sharp reversal to the downside today as the Dow fell 461 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  the summation index has turned lower.  The inverted yield curve was the excuse for todays drop as short rates peeked above longer rates today.  This has been a precursor for a recession at times in the past.  Regardless, it negates the positive price action that we've seen this week as the S&P 500 has closed below the near term support zone.  Volatility zoomed higher and I'm guessing that was the reason the SPY April call premiums didn't drop as much as expected.  The major stock indices closed right at their lows for the session which should make Monday morning pretty interesting.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over and we're not oversold yet.  GE lost over 1/4 on better volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar was up a bit as well.  Flight to safety perhaps?  The XAU along with GDX had very slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So was today a one day wonder or the beginning of a more serious decline?  That will be the question on traders minds over the weekend.  Certainly the drop today after a very positive Thursday has gotten everyones attention.  Especially since the Fed just did and said about all that it can this week.  We will stick with the technicals though and they have just rolled over.  I would guess that we are at least going to go back to the 200 day moving average on the S&P at around 2750.  If and when we get there, if we are oversold it may be the spot to try the SPY April calls.  I'm not exactly bearish here yet because money is still cheap.  But we'll see how things go in the coming trading days.  I do still favor the GDX April calls as well but need to see an oversold technical condition before attempting that trade.  Plenty of chart work to do over the weekend.  Asia was higher and Europe lower in overnight trading.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A nice move higher today as the Dow gained 216 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  I think that it is safe to say now that the overhead resistance in the S&P 500 has been overcome and higher prices are in the future.  If we somehow get a snap back to the resistance at 2820, that would be the time to try the SPY April calls.  The price of the options now made it cost prohibitive really.  Although the trade appears that it would of worked, the outlay outweighed the risk involved.  In other words it cost too much to attempt the trade here.  It is a Fed induced rally after yesterdays back and forth.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold gained another $7 on the futures.  The US dollar got a bounce today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and as long as that's the case the path of least resistance will be higher.  The small stocks, although overbought, are leading the way higher with the exception of RUT.  Plenty of time in the April option cycle but waiting for a valid signal is the mode I'm in at the moment.  I'd really like to simply jump on board here but the premiums are very high with that extra week priced in them.  Patience for now.  Brexit is still in the news but it looks like it will be put on hold for a while instead of being resolved by the end of the month deadline.  The US/China trade talks continue with no new headlines today.  The market is always at the risk of a headline event, some times more than others.  It appears to be a quiet time for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.  

We opened lower, got a rally off the Fed but then could not hold it.  The Dow fell 141 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ posting a slight gain.  The Fed was as dovish as it can get but we couldn't hold the rally.  It looks like the market is trying to roll over here but it hasn't happened yet.  The Dow is rarely the leader for these things but you never know.  The fact that the NASDAQ is holding up is a plus.  The question is what drives prices from here?  Perhaps the US/China trade talks will drive tings from here.  GE was up a few cents but the volume was light.  Gold added $7 on the futures as the dovish Fed drove the US dollar lower.  The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  GDX again touched its rising trend line and bounced off.  I did consider getting the GDX April calls today but did not put in an order.  Their value doubled today on the Fed.  It appears that the trend line form November is a key area since it has held now for numerous times.  Perhaps I should simply listen and get long the next time GDX gets there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing for me to do but wait here as the S&P 500 continues overbought even with todays decline.  Right now it doesn't look like the rise above the resistance at 2820 is for real.  I'll continue to be patient here and see how the rest of the week plays out.  With the drop in rates I would think that it would make equities more attractive but who knows?  The Fed said everything the market wanted to hear today but the rally failed.  Interesting to say the least.  Europe and Asia were generally weaker overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 26 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was up almost 200 points during the session but we got some US/China trade talk babble that drove prices lower.  So that's back in the news again after being put on the back burner.  Which makes tomorrows Fed statement even more of a non event probably.  The NASDAQ was higher on the day so it wasn't a complete washout.  Regardless, I'm still looking for higher prices going forward and any decline will most likely be the chance to get on board before we move substantially over the resistance at 2820 on the S&P.  GE was off a penny on light volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  We are once again close to the up trend line in GDX that began in November.  I've been pretty patient regarding the GDX April calls so far.  I suppose the question now is have we reached the time to do this trade or not?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well we're back in headline risk mode as the US/China trade talks are back in the market picture.  But we'll stick with the technicals for now.  The S&P 500 short term indicators are overbought and could potentially roll over here in the short term.  RUT is basically moving sideways here and the TRAN had a bearish daily candle today.  So you can make the case for a roll over here.  But will it be because of the Fed or the tariffs talks?  Or perhaps it won't occur at all.  We'll know more tomorrow if we get some downside follow through.  The break above resistance in the S&P hasn't been convincing just yet.  The short term GDX technical indicators are mid-range so you can make a case either way.  I'll wait for the reaction to the Fed and take it from there.  Unless I change my mind overnight.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

A higher start to the week as the Dow gained 65 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  Pretty much a lackluster session with no major price swings.  We have moved above the 2820 resistance level on the S&P 500 but it seems like more of a grind so far.  For now I'm going to wait on the SPY April calls.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  The gold futures and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Getting close again to the up trend line for GDX.  I am also waiting here to purchase the GDX April calls but we are not yet oversold.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Fed announcement is on Wednesday and the market is most likely biding time until then.  I will do the same.  An extra week in the April option cycle.  I do not expect any surprises out of the Fed so we'll have to see the market reaction to news that is most likely a non event.  We are overbought on the short term technical indicators for the S&P.  However the VIX is very low and does not imply that volatility is about to make a comeback.  Perhaps if we can hang around the 2820 level for a while that will be enough to propel us forward eventually.  That's a guess as usual.  For now. it's sit tight on the Fed.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the DAX.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Higher today as the Dow gained 139 points on very heavy expiration volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index remains in a lower drift trying to turn around.  All you had to do was buy the SPY calls on Monday morning and hold them until the close today as the expiration week positive bias was in full effect.  Easier said than done as Friday was the ideal buy time.  We did make it above the 2820 level on the S&P and closed above it.  However the heavy volume was expiration related and we did fall back off of the highs for the session.  Never the less it looks like we are heading higher.  Unfortunately the option premiums are pretty high with the extra week on the April cycle thrown in.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was very heavy.  This issue is attracting a lot of attention lately.  Gold was up $7 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were slightly higher on average volume.  I'm still considering the GDX April calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is the lowest that it's been since last October, implying to me that higher prices are still coming.  It closed below 13.  The S&P 500 is overbought now on the short term but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  The only near term caveat that is see is that the RUT is not in the lead higher here.  It has been moving sideways.  I'd keep an eye on which way it goes for confirmation of the S&P breakout.  There's still no rush to do anything since we are rolling into the next option cycle.  I missed the March SPY call trade and it's time to move on from here.  I'll check the charts over the weekend to see what looks promising going forward.  Europe and Asia were both higher to close out the week.  It's Friday evening and time  for a rest.

A day of running in place as the Dow rose 7 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  Sideways chop would be the best way to describe todays price action.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow but there wasn't any wholesale activity in either direction.  Expiration is tomorrow and the volume will be heavy.  We're stalling here again just below the 2820 mark for the S&P 500.  The short term technical indicators have just a little more room to go on the upside to the overbought zone.  I suspect that we will break through to upside in due time.  GE was up 1/4 on very heavy volume.  Still below the 200 day moving average here but there is room to run on the short term technicals.  Gold was off $13 today as the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU fell two points, while GDX shed almost 2/3.  Volume was average.  Looks like a rollover to the downside here but we'll have to see if there is any follow through.  I'm still interested in the April GDX calls if and when it gets oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Still waiting to see what happens here as the indicators for some of the major averages are at the midway point and deciding which way to go.  The Dow is lagging here and that probably can be attributed to BA.  The small caps have followed the S&P with the exception of RUT.  We'll see if that turns out to be a problem.  Brexit hasn't affected the US stock market this week.  I suppose I'll just let expiration Friday pass and take it from there.  The April option cycle has an extra week in it so there is no hurry with the expensive premiums.  No clear technical signal as well but if the S&P 500 gets through 2820 on good volume I should probably jump on board.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Dow carries on as my theory of a drop today did not materialize.  The Dow gained 148 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around back to the upside.  The overall market was just about in line with the Dow.  The S&P 500 made it up to 2820 and then backed off.  There is still room on the short term technical indicators to go higher.  Brexit seems to be a non event for the US market.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up a dozen of the April futures as the US dollar had a good drop.  It appears that the dollar breakout a few days ago was a false one as we have now fallen back below resistance.  The XAU and GDX only had slight fractional gains on light volume though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So far it looks like the typical options expiration week run up as bounce off of the recent lows continues.  There's no reason to believe that we can't just go higher into the close on Friday.  That would not be a surprise.  For me now it's a matter of being patient for the next likely set up.  I'm not exactly sure what that will be but if the seasonal weakness for gold finally arrive, I'll be looking for the GDX April calls.  If not, I'll have to try the breakout above the 2820 on the S&P if and when that happens.  So I'll watch and wait.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We did get some upside follow through for the overall market but the Dow dropped 96 points on lighter volume.  BA is the culprit here as it is still reeling form the recent plane crash and grounding of a number of its planes by foreign governments.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up but hasn't just yet.  The VIX has fallen though and is back below 14.  Not sure what the market will focus on next but rates are heading lower for some reason.  Perhaps the Brexit issue in England is causing some worry as it is just about time for some kind of decision.  The US/China talks have been out of the news for a few days.  On the technical front the indicators have turned back up and are not overbought yet.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold rose $10 and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained over 1/3.  Volume was pretty light though.  I'm still hoping for a drop back to the up trend line here but that remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had a nice bounce and now it is a matter of mustering up enough strength to try the 2820 level again on the S&P 500.  I can make a case for a decline tomorrow because we've had a textbook 1-2-3 rise form the oversold condition that we hit on Friday.  If we were to drop tomorrow the strength of the move lower will tell a lot about where we're headed near term.  I'm still leaning bullish here and I do think that 2820 will be taken out and we'll move on to challenge the old highs.  I could be wrong but the drop in the VIX tells me the market mood has changed and we should move higher.  Gold is holding up well here and that cannot be ignored since it is contrary to the seasonal bias.  I'm still looking at the GDX April calls if the price is what I'm willing to risk.  We'll see how the Brexit vote goes in England and the foreign markets reaction to that vote.  With only three days left in the March option cycle, I won't be attempting any short term trades.  There's also no clear S&P signal at the moment either.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

Options expiration week started off with a bang as the Dow rose 200 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower but it is on its way to turning around.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Friday for a big move and we got it today.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The S&P 500 rose 40 points and the NASDAQ was up 150.  BA held back the Dow as the stock crashed like one of its planes over the weekend.  Friday was the day to get the SPY March calls and I missed out on an opportunity again.  Buying first thing this morning would have worked but I was waiting for some kind of decline to try it.  Never happened and I did not chase things because you cannot predict just how far the market will go in a day.  However the underlying technical work was spot on and there will be other chances down the road.  Not exactly pleased that I missed this one though.  GE was up about 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold shed five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  They did come up off of their lows for the session.  I'm still looking at the April GDX calls but will have to wait for the next oversold signal to give them a try.  My hope here is that we enter a consolidation in the gold shares for a couple of weeks and then the set up for the GDX April calls will materialize.  But markets go where they want.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a jump in the S&P today and I think that we're going higher in the short term.  2820 is the level we need to get through on good volume.  If that occurs I think we will be heading perhaps back to the all time highs.  That's just a guess for now.  A bounce was due here technically and we certainly got it.  Now it's back to the waiting game for the next signal.  It will certainly be interesting to see how the rest of the week shapes up.  Asia was lower overnight with the exception of China.  Europe saw slight gains.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US higher overnight.

It was a rock and roll Friday on the jobs report as the Dow came back from an over 200 point loss to finish with a drop of 23 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The employment report was very weak and there was selling around the globe ahead of that.  We had a big gap down but the selling did not find any steam.  The Dow almost made it all the way back to even.  Weakness could and should of been bought today.  I did have an order in for the SPY March calls but it wasn't filled.  Perhaps I'll get another chance on Monday.  The VIX made it above 18 and then came back.  I think we've seen the top for the VIX today.  We're short term oversold for the S&P and calls are in order for next week.  The McClellan oscillator is also very oversold as well.  However it looks like today may have been the day to purchase.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Gold found buyers today and the futures rose $14.  The US dollar was weaker.  The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX added over 1/2.  Volume was average.  Another missed trade for me here as I did not take advantage of the oversold signal when I should have.  I was more concerned about the negative seasonality and missed a very good trade here it looks like.  That is inexcusable because I was tracking it, got the buy signal and still did nothing.  I missed getting filled by a penny before canceling the order for the calls earlier this week.  I suppose I'll simply have to wait and see if we fall back to the near term uptrend line again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well at least I was looking for the SPY calls today and that was the right move.  Perhaps we'll get some weakness on Monday and I'll get another chance.  If not, I'll have to wait for the April option cycle and the next signal.  I'm still hoping that I'll get a chance though.  If the worldwide selling has some follow through on Monday morning, maybe the S&P will open lower.  It looks to me like the decline is over in the S&P for now.  Gold put a halt to its decline this week and I'll simply keep an eye on it from here.  Frustrating missing obvious signals though.  There's nobody to blame but myself.  The markets certainly don't care.  I'll look over the charts this weekend and go from there hoping for some early selling Monday morning on the S&P.  Asia was lower as the Chinese markets got clobbered.  Europe sold off as well.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day another decline as the Dow lost 200 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving down.  Getting oversold on a short term basis now for the S&P and I do think that weakness can be bought tomorrow.  Will I do it?  That remains to be seen.  We did get some buying in the final hour and that's a positive.  I could make a case for waiting until Monday to try the SPY March calls but by then it may be too late.  The VIX is not completely overbought just yet but it may not get there.  Perhaps I'll just wait and see what happens on the jobs report and go from there.  Oversold on the McClellan oscillator but that doesn't mean it can't stop dropping.  One thing for sure is that we have rolled over here but it isn't a precipitous decline.  GE bounced back 1/3 today on good volume.  Holding at the 50 day moving average for now.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures despite a big move higher in the US dollar.  The dollar looks like it is breaking out above longer term overhead resistance.  That would not be bullish for gold if it were to happen.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  I would still like to try the GDX April calls but if the dollar breaks out that trade will have to be put on hold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting change in the market psychology here as sellers have finally reappeared.  There's only 6 days left in the March option cycle but I do feel as though there is a profitable trade out there.  I suppose a lot depends on the employment number tomorrow as a strong reading will send the dollar higher, stocks and gold lower if I'm guessing right.  But that really doesn't matter as we will have to stick to the technicals.  No doubt we'll be oversold enough for me on weakness tomorrow to take a look at the SPY March calls.  That will be the game plan.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow as all eyes will be on the market reaction to the jobs report.

A negative session today as the Dow fell 133 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Orderly selling, so there was no sense of panic.  But the short term technical indicators have rolled over and they're not oversold yet.  RUT was weak today and it's leading the way down in my humble opinion.  I'll be keeping an eye out on that.  If we continue lower into Monday, that's the time I'll try the SPY March calls for a short term trade.  Maybe even on Friday if we drop on the employment report.  That should be the next catalyst one way or the other.  It's too late for the puts here as I was a week early on that idea.  GE got clobbered and lost 3/4 on very heavy volume.  Looks like some people were aware of the bad news yesterday.  I'm still a believer longer term for this stock.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  I did place an order for the GDX April calls overnight.  It was close to getting filled when I canceled it.  We are oversold for the gold shares but there relative performance vs. gold today was horrible.  My thinking is that they have lower to go, following the overall market.  The up trend line now for GDX appears in serious jeopardy as well as perhaps the gold shares will follow gold itself in breaking that line.  Of course things could turn around tomorrow.  We are oversold here for the gold shares and I do want to try the calls going forward.  The question is when?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has creeped back up but it isn't really anything dramatic.  That says to me that any decline here will be mild but who knows?  Not overbought there yet but will be at the top of the Bollinger bands with another day or two like today.  I am going to wait until at least Friday to try the SPY March calls if I do.  Perhaps the reaction to the jobs report will give me a chance.  I also may indeed pass on this idea because at the moment the pricing on the SPY March puts says that we are heading lower.  The short term techncials for SPY are not close to oversold yet either.  Perhaps we're heading for 2750 on the S&P, which is the 200 day moving average.  That would be a logical place to start looking at the calls.  Not that the stock market is logical in the general sense.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trade.  Tomorrow will probably be a wait and see session ahead of the employment report but we'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight. 

A sideways session after yesterdays fireworks as the Dow lost 13 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Not much to say about today as we simply moved back and forth.  No real news to report either.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but I will say if we continue to drift lower I'll look at the calls for expiration week.  GE lost 1/2 on very heavy volume.  The up trend line from the end of December has been broken there.  Gold was up a buck as the US dollar continued higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Still holding on to the 50 day moving average and the recent up trend line for GDX.  The short term technical indicators are oversold but I just can't bring myself to buy the calls here.  However if there was any time to give it a try, now is it.  I may place an order overnight but it will require some downside to get filled.  My hesitation includes the fact that gold has broken its up trend line and if it breaks $1280 there is no support.  Also support for silver comes in below $15 and we are not there yet.  The weak seasonal time period for the precious metals is also a factor but that hasn't worked for me lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX calmed down today but that can change in a flash as we saw on Monday.  Rut looks like it's starting to roll over.  TRAN already has.  Those are not positive signs.  The S&P for the moat part is just moving sideways here.  So I suppose I will be careful here for a change and perhaps take a closer look at the gold shares overnight.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines and go from there.

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell  206 points on good volume.  It was a one day reversal to the downside.  The advance/declines were only negative though as the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was off over 400 points during the session.  The market break that I positioned myself last week finally appeared today.  Obviously frustrating for me from a trading stand point.  We'll have to see where things go from here because the market did stage quite a comeback.  Perhaps sideways is the way we go here for a while but that's a guess as usual.  The short term technical indicators have finally started to roll over now.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  These indexes both opened lower and closed higher for one day reversals to the upside.  They also bounced off of their 50 day moving averages along with their rising trend lines.  All of this makes perfect technical sense but I did not place an order for the gold share calls today.  Gold has broken its up trend line and I'm wondering if the gold shares will follow.  The gold indices did hold up well today despite the loss in gold and that is bullish.  But I'm inclined to wait here to place a trade on GDX due to the poor seasonal time frame at the moment for gold.  However I do feel that the gold shares calls for April will be my next trade.  That's my call at the moment.  Mentally I'm in the frustration mode as the big drop today was what I've been waiting for.  The VIX popped up to almost 17 and made it to the top range of the Bollinger band on a daily basis.  Is there more volatility coming?  It would appear so as one day extreme usually leads to more price movement.  However I'm simply on the sidelines now for the SPY.  I think the next best trade here may be the breakout above the resistance at 282 if it occurs on heavy volume.  Not sure when that will occur but there's only 9 days left in the March option cycle.  Plus after today it looks like things could be ready to turn lower if the sideways trend doesn't hold up.  Asia was higher as the trade deal looks to be just about done.  Europe was steady overnight.  We'll see if the volatility ramps up again tomorrow.  

The Dow took off to the upside on the open and managed to hang on to a gain of 110 points on heavy volume.  We were up well over 200 points in the first half hour.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways in my opinion.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  I had the feeling things were about to get higher and that was right for a change.  My SPY March puts were stopped out for a bet less than a 25% loss.  Saw that coming too.  My inability to do the right thing at the right time was my downfall.  This trade had to be exited yesterday at the latest.  The market doesn't care and you have to move on.  I cannot continue to take losses though.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold took a drop today, the futures shed over $20 and closed below $1300.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  March is the seasonally weak period for gold and it appears that got started early this year.  GDX is almost at the up trend line that began last November and its 50 day moving average.  We are also now short term oversold but it feels like the gold shares have more room to run on the downside after todays price action.  However if you're bullish on gold, which I am, this would be the logical spot to try the calls again.  I'll ponder this idea over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated from the losing SPY March put trade.  I had a profit that turned into a loss and I knew that I should have bailed out of the trade.  I'm beginning to start to think that perhaps the SPY moves too fast for my meager brain as I'm getting older.  Or maybe I just can't do the right thing when it's needed.  Whatever it is I'll need to regroup and move on.  The market doesn't wait for anyone.  It looks like after the price action today that 2800 will no longer be a barrier and we will be moving higher despite the constant overbought condition of the market.  The converging Bollinger bands on the VIX now seem to be signaling that the big move will be to the upside and that the VIX will simply continue to head lower.  That's the message I'm getting today.  I'll recheck things over the weekend.  There's still two weeks left in the March option cycle.  I'm not sure if I'll try the SPY options again here but we'll see.  I'm leaning towards trying GDX again since I was successful there the last time.  But that really doesn't mean anything going forward.  Tough game but that's just the way it is.  Europe and Asia were both higher as money worldwide is flowing back into stocks.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.