Monday, July 03, 2017
The Dow rallied on this holiday shortened trading session, gaining 129 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index will be higher today but still moving sideways on the overall picture. We were up over 200 at one point during the day. The overall market was still much weaker than the Dow here with the NASDAQ firmly in negative territory. The Dow did set a new intra-day high. I really think that the index puts are the way to go here as the Dow leadership is bearish in my mind. It may be too late though as todays price action was actually bearish in my view. A light volume rally that was sold in the last hour of trading. GE was up 3/8 on very light volume. Beginning of the month buying perhaps. We are oversold all the way around here for GE. Gold took a hit today as the futures shed over $20. The US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX dropped almost 2/3. Volume was light. I do still have an open order for the longer term gold share calls of ABX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The TRAN has now joined the Dow at new all time highs. It is hard to be bearish with these positive technical conditions. It is hard to ignore the negative technical divergences in some of the major averages though. Perhaps we'll see one more blow off to the upside before some real selling kicks in. Volatility did pick up last week but we have yet to see even a 5% decline in the major averages. I suppose I'm just really still at a loss on where we are going from here. But I am leaning towards getting some SPY July puts ahead of the employment report on Friday. If we continue to go higher in the next couple of trading sessions on light volume, that's what I'm planning to do. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll enjoy the day off tomorrow and be back at it on Wednesday.