Thursday, July 20, 2017
A bit lower today as the Dow fell 29 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is moving up. Kind of just a sideways summer session. Overbought both short and medium term now for the S&P. The TRAN has already rolled over. I can't see us going much higher in the near term but my ideas have been quite wrong lately. We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy. This stock just cannot get anything going to the upside. The daily candlestick chart is bearish. Gold was up just a bit on the futures as the US dollar continues its decline. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. I canceled my open order for the ABX longer term calls for now. I'll let the earnings report come out next week and then figure out if I still want to try this trade. The gold shares have rallied for a couple of weeks but the volume has been light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Record highs day after day for most of the major stock indices large and small. I still do not trust this rally because the volume has been light all the way up. It may just be because of the summer season but I cannot go against that principal. I still think that things will not end well here and we are on the 5th and final wave up that started with the end of the last recession. Earnings season is upon us and we'll have to see how that goes. The rise this week could simply be expiration related, combined with squeezing what is left of the shorts. Asia was higher and Europe mostly lower last night. We'll see how we close out the week tomorrow.