Monday, July 17, 2017
A quiet summer Monday of trading as the Dow fell 8 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving higher. Short term overbought now for all the major averages. But that doesn't mean that we can't stay that way. I do think some type of decline is imminent though. However after last weeks debacle, I'll be remaining on the sidelines. 4 days to go in the July option cycle and my confidence is shot anyway. With a trip planned during the August cycle. it appears that I won't be trading the SPY options anytime soon. It's a light week on the economic calendar. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX had a fractional gain. Volume was very light. I've still got the longer term open order for the ABX calls out there but will probably cancel it ahead of the earnings next week on the 26th. No need for a surprise there and if ABX drops, then I'll consider it again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is below 10 and oversold any way you look at it. This won't last forever either. I do expect some kind of drop or consolidation this week. At the rate things are going here, it looks like we could head higher after a brief pause. But I really don't think we are going to see a strong leg up. The volume is just not there and eventually this too will fail. The timing, as usual, is the question. Now it may seem as though I'm leaning back and forth on what will happen here. But we will be heading lower in my opinion because a light volume rally can never be trusted and the breakout in the S&P here is weak in my opinion. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll follow the overnight developments and take it from there.