Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Lower for the Dow today as the most watched index shed 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ higher. The summation index is still moving up. We got another signal yesterday from the McClellan oscillator that portends a big move that would now be due tomorrow. We'll see if that signal works again. Not much else for me to do here. The market is overbought and staying there. That is the way it goes in up trends. I'm still not sold on this light volume rise. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold gained $8 on the futures as the US dollar down trend continues. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Gold has been acting better than the gold shares in this rise and that generally isn't sustainable for a long term trend. You'd like to see the opposite. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It looks like we're getting the positive expiration bias for the stock market this week. No news really and we tried to sell off early today but to no avail. I'm on the sidelines for the foreseeable future due to lack of confidence combined with an upcoming vacation. I'll be canceling the open order for the longer term gold share calls this week due to the earnings coming out next Wednesday. Not exactly the summer doldrums here but the volume is slow and the price movement isn't extreme. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. The Dow did follow the DAX but not with the same degree. I'll be keeping an eye on the news tonight.