Thursday, July 06, 2017
To the downside as the Dow fell 158 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower which implies lower prices to come. The overall market was weak as well. Is it too late for the SPY July puts? Maybe but we'll have to see how it plays out from here. We are approaching an up trend line from the beginning of the year for the SPY that comes in at roughly 239. That could be a spot to try the SPY July calls tomorrow. However the market has the feel of wanting to drop here. We are short term oversold for the S&P but not drastically so. We are also at an up trend line for the NASDAQ. Tomorrow will be an important session. We'll either hold on here or start to really drop. GE was off over a point on heavy volume. Is this the precursor for tomorrow? Gold rose a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was weaker. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Obviously the tone of the market has changed here. Where as before we had no sellers, now we are lacking buyers during the trading day. We're still pretty close to all time highs for many of the major big cap indices. The VIX has started to rise here but is not overbought yet. So here we are. Potentially on the verge of a breakdown in my opinion. If we can hold up here there might be a chance for a short term rally. So we are at an important inflection point for the market. The employment report will probably trigger some kind of reaction. I'm not sure if I'll make any trades though. We'll see. Europe and Asia were lower overnight but not drastically. We'll see what happens with the jobs report and the markets reaction to it tomorrow.