Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Volatility returned today as the market was off more than 100 points during the session but managed to make it back to break even by the end of the day. The Dow was up a half a point on light volume. the advance/declines were slightly higher. The summation index is still moving lower. My open order for the SPY July puts wasn't close to being filled with todays price action. I'm leaving it in but things could change in a hurry. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move within the next two trading sessions. We could have seen it today with the intra-day 100 point move lower. Or it still may be coming tomorrow. We will get the Yellen testimony and the Feds beige book. The market has had plenty of chances to sell off lately but it always seems to find a way back. GE was up 1/3 and the volume remains good. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures after being lower early on. The US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. My longer term gold share option order remains in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We are in an interesting place here as the small stocks broke their 50 day moving averages and have now bounced back to them. The S&P 500 is balancing on its 50 day moving average as well. The S&P has also stalled once again at the short term down trend line. A break above that line should lead to some kind of rally. The breadth and volume, if it does happen, will tell us what we need to know about where things are going. But we could simply break down from here as well. We've been sideways with a downward tilt for over a month now. Something has to give. With the summation index still moving down, I'm looking for a meaningful drop. But we all know that things can turn on a dime in this game. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.