Wednesday, July 12, 2017
We got the big move implied a couple days ago by the McClellan oscillator as the Dow rose 123 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back up. Yellen spoke and the market liked what it heard. The Dow hit a new all time intra-day high. My open order for the SPY July puts was filled in the morning and is showing a small loss. This trade doesn't appear to be working, as tomorrow might actually have been the time to place it. I may sell it for a small loss tomorrow morning and then move to a higher strike price as the day moves on. It depends on how we open and the market action early on. The short term down trend line has been broken to the upside and the short term indicators have moved back up. So perhaps the puts here are not even the right idea. I don't trust light volume rallies though. GE was up 20 cents and the volume was heavy. Perhaps The low for GE has finally been put in. Gold was up almost five bucks on the futures. The US dollar bounced around and finished the day little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher. Volume remains light here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Finally back in a trade but it isn't quite going as I'd like it. I'm either a little early or this idea is completely wrong. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks acted well. Getting short term overbought for the small stocks but we still could see some more upside despite being overbought. If we see a pick up in volume to the upside, then I think we'll be getting a summer rally. If we stall out here, then the SPY July put trade could work. There's still 7 days to go in the July option cycle. But I will try not to fool myself. My entry today was not what it could have been and there's definitely a chance that we simply move higher from here. Asia was lower and Europe higher last night. Some economic data out tomorrow but much more on Friday including retail sales. We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading action.