Friday, July 14, 2017
New all time highs once again as the Dow gained 84 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Overbought and staying that way for now. We have broken out to new all time highs on the S&P 500 as well. But the volume is so light here that I am pretty sure that this rally will not end well. The shorts got squeezed today and that included me. I got clobbered on my SPY July put trades. I simply dumped them today because this was a poorly timed idea. I thought that I was doing the right thing but was simply wrong in my take of the market. I was getting short as the sideways consolidation was ending. I'm not sure if it was because I wanted to get a trade in for the July cycle or perhaps to put something on since I hadn't traded in a while. Regardless, my reading of the indicators and the markets was wrong. It was a 75% loss on the first trade and a 60% loss on the second. I committed the cardinal sin of chasing a losing trade. My thinking this past week was poor to say the least. But you've got to keep moving on. GE lost a penny on very light volume. Gold was up over $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower on weaker than expected economic data. The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume is still light here. I still have my open order for the longer term ABX calls out there for now. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated after my losing trading attempts this week. There is no way in my mind that I think we are on the verge of another leg up here for the S&P. Even though it is summer, the volume is so light on this up move that it just cannot be trusted in my view. We're short term overbought but can stay that way as option expiration week is upon us. So what's my next move? Do I dare try the SPY July puts again next week? Probably not. I'm most likely going to head to the sidelines to lick my wounds. I'm also planning a vacation for a change during the August option cycle, so my attention then won't be what is necessary to trade. I'm pretty disappointed in my trading behavior this week and that is not the mental state of mind that is helpful for success. The set up now looks like the market is about to drop but I am pretty sure that I'll be sitting things out for now. The VIX is almost at its lowest point for the year and that will not last. I'll go over all the charts again this weekend but I would not be surprised to see some kind of drop next week. It's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.