Friday, July 21, 2017
Another slow trading day as the Dow lost 31 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to the upside. The Dow did come up from the lows of the session. It seems like we are in a drift here, with the market poised to go higher still. Overbought and staying there. Summer trading is upon us. GE hit another new low on the earnings and fell 3/4 on the day with very heavy volume. It too came back from its worst on the day. It's trying to hold the 200 week moving average. Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar keeps dropping. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains yet again but the volume remains very weak. My guess is that this rally in the gold shares will fail. If it does, I'll attempt the longer term gold share calls when we get oversold here. If it doesn't fail, I will have simply missed the move. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. We made it though expiration Friday with most of the major stock averages still hovering near all time highs. There doesn't appear to be anything in the way of the rally. I still don't like the light volume but we haven't seen much selling in the past couple of weeks. We'll roll into the August option cycle, which has an extra week in it. The option premiums will be high. I'll be keeping an eye on things but since I'll be going away in about a week, the urgency to trade will be missing. I may leave an open order for the longer term gold share calls but that will be about it. It depends on how ABX reacts to the earnings on Tuesday. As for the S&P, we're long overdue for some type of decline but it hasn't happened yet. We get sideways and then higher. As long as that continues, the path of least resistance remains up. But I would remain cautious here because the potential RSI negative divergence is still visible on the weekly chart. But nothing has happened yet. Asia and Europe were both lower overnight, with the DAX leading the way down. Could that be a sign as to what we are about to see here for the Dow? Stay tuned on that. I'll be checking things over the weekend but the overall tone of things here is the lazy, hazy days of summer. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.