Friday, June 30, 2017
In general a positive day for stocks as the Dow gained 62 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. We were up well over 100 but dropped hard in the last fifteen minutes. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index is moving sideways. The tone of the market has obviously changed as we are back and forth each session. I'm going to look everything over this weekend but I'm leaning towards simply buying some SPY July puts. The small stocks look like they're rolling over here and they are generally the leaders. The negative weekly RSI divergence remains in place for the S&P 500. I'd like to see a light volume rise next week going into the employment report but the market rarely cooperates. GE was flat on the session and the volume was light. Gold was off four bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on almost average volume. Not a lot of interest in gold despite a drop in the US dollar. Mentally I'm feeling OK. An interesting week in the stock market as we finally saw some actual selling for a change. We haven't broken down here yet. The trend does still remain up for now. The question is whether this is an actual change in trend that we are about to see or just some end of the June quarter profit taking. The small stocks are short term oversold and the big caps are trying to get there. The small stocks are trying to hold their 50 day moving averages while most of the big caps are not even close to theirs. The TRIN is pretty overbought here, which says to me we need to see some more selling. But what do I know? I guess I'll have to see how we do at the beginning of next week and go from there. Monday will be a holiday session with a day off in the US on Tuesday. Things should be up to full speed on Wednesday. I'll do my work over the weekend and try to come up with a valid strategy. Both Europe and Asia were lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.