Friday, June 16, 2017
A pretty quiet quarterly expiration as the Dow gained 24 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is back to trending sideways. I did expect higher prices over the past two days and it didn't happen. I'll still be looking for some upside early next week. Or perhaps my view of things here is simply off. I am looking for a spot to purchase some SPY July puts. The weekly negative divergence that I see on the chart hasn't gone away. The problem is the premiums for the July options are expensive, with an extra week of time on them. GE was up a few cents and the volume was very heavy. Plenty of overhead resistance here. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar fell. The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume. The lack of progress in the price of gold despite the fall in the dollar is a concern for the precious metal bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So here we are. The big caps have held up here and are closer to short term overbought. The small stocks have sold off and are short term oversold. The Dow has been the recent leader. In my mind the market is getting more narrow and we are closer to some sort of top rather than some sort of bottom. But how can we trade it? I'm still going to have to wait for some sort of signal, despite the last one for strength at the end of this week not working. There isn't a lot of economic data out next week so we'll probably just trade off of the technical readings unless there is a headline event. Perhaps the summer slowdown will begin. I do not have any solid trading ideas right now but I'll be checking the charts over the weekend. The ideal scenario in my mind would be a light volume rally to get short term overbought all the way around. Then attempting the July puts would make sense to me. But as always the market will go where it wants. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.