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Tuesday, June 27, 2017

The Dow fell 98 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index will be back to heading down.  No reason really for the drop but all the short term technical indicators had rolled over.  We are just about short term oversold and another day like today will do it.  I'm leaning towards getting some SPY July calls tomorrow on weakness.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow and that isn't bullish.  The problem for getting long here is that all the things that I've mentioned recently still exist.  The leadership of the Dow vs. the small caps.  The negative RSI divergence on the S&P 500 weekly chart.  The resistance at 2450 for the S&P.  So can this turn into something bigger to the downside?  Stay tuned.  GE was off 3/8 and volume picked up heading lower in price.  Short term oversold here.  Gold was pretty much flat on the futures despite the US dollar heading down sharply.  The XAU lost a point and GDX fell 1/3 on better volume.  I still have an open order in for the October ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although we may head a bit lower in the short term, I think that trying the SPY July calls here could be worth a shot.  It would have to be a short term deal but I would at least like to hold them until the 4th of July.  The timing on the entry here is most important but if we simply keep dropping here the trade would be off.  I will have to recheck the indicators and the charts tonight to figure out what to do tomorrow.  My overall thinking though is that this is the beginning of something sustained to the downside.  I could be wrong.  Asia was a bit mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.

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