Thursday, June 29, 2017
It was a rock and roll Thursday as the Dow fell 167 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly over 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving back and forth but is basically trending sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We were off more than 250 at one point. Volatility spiked but came back down into the close. I'm not sure what is going on here as the market is now moving back and forth each trading day. I'm guessing today was perhaps the squaring of positions before taking tomorrow off for some traders. We are at the end of the second quarter and wrapping up the first half of the year. I'm not sure what happens next. GE was down a few cents on good volume. Oversold here on a short and medium term basis. Gold lost a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar continued its decline. The lack of progress for gold with the drop in the dollar is a concern for the bulls. The XAU fell 2 and GDX dropped 1/2 on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There will be a lot to consider over the long weekend but let's get through tomorrow first. We remain pretty close to new all time highs for some of the major averages. The tightening of the Bollinger bands still implies some kind of extended price move in the S&P 500. And the jury is still out on which way that move is. But I must say with volatility like this, it usually means the end of the move preceding it. That means we could be witnessing the end of the huge, long bull run that we've been on for years. It hasn't happened yet though. The short term indicators for the S&P are still looking mid-range to slightly oversold. I'll be waiting until after July 4th to make the next trade at this point. Tomorrow should be a getaway day, with Monday being a light volume pre-holiday affair. So let's get through Friday and take it from there. Asia was higher and Europe lower in last nights trading. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.