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Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Another mixed bag today as the Dow rose while the overall market was lower.  The most watched index gained 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up but barely.  We did get a sell off during the Fed press conference but the market came back.  I did place an order for the SPY June calls but once again it wasn't filled.  I'm willing to try this again tomorrow if we see some weakness because I'm convinced that we'll see higher prices going into the expiration on Friday.  However today may have been the last chance to try that.  The Fed raised rates a quarter point as expected.  The economic data out today was weak.  GE was up 1/4 today and the volume was good.  I don't see any trades here at the moment.  Gold was off $6 on the futures and fell off of its highs.  The US dollar finished little changed but did come up from its lows.  The XAU shed 3 1/4, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was heavy and the daily candlestick pattern is bearish.  This will be the time to keep an eye on the longer term gold share call options.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is no doubt here that the overall market is weaker than the Dow.  That is a change from how it's been for quite some time.  It isn't a bullish development but it can sometimes take some time for this to play out.  It is something to be aware of though.  Two days left in the June option cycle and if we get weakness early tomorrow, I'll probably try the SPY June calls.  It's risky but my work is calling for higher prices in the next two days.  If we simply rise from the open then there won't be a trade worth taking and we'll roll out to July.  I expect we'll see more new all time highs in the Dow and the S&P before the week is out.  It's then quite possible that the market will head into summer mode.  Europe and Asia were mostly lower yesterday but the moves were muted.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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