Thursday, June 15, 2017
A bit lower today as the Dow fell 14 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trending up but sluggishly. The overall market was weaker than the Dow again. Keep that in mind going forward. The small stocks are lagging and that is a sign of a tired market. The S&P 500 was down almost 20 points early on. I did place an order for the SPY June calls but it wasn't filled. I was only going to attempt this trade on my terms and the option price didn't hit my target. You could make a case for trying it again tomorrow on weakness but I think that I'll step aside. My idea for this trade was valid though and I'll take that moving forward. I would not be surprised with an up session to tomorrow to close out the week. My work says to expect higher prices late this week but we are almost out of time. GE was up 1/2 on pretty good volume. Plenty of overhead resistance at 29-29.5. Gold fell $20 on the futures as the US dollar rallied. The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was good. The gold shares took most of their losses for the move in gold yesterday. It looks like the dollar could rally from here so that should add to weakness in the precious metal. I'll be keeping an eye on the longer term gold share calls here going forward. ABX will be my preferred vehicle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Another option cycle goes by without a trade. I can't say that there was a lot of opportunities as the S&P has moved sideways the past couple of weeks. The July option cycle has an extra week and a holiday on a Tuesday. I'm certainly not looking to go long anytime soon as the tone of things has changed. There is still what I consider a glaring negative divergence on the RSI for the S&P 500 weekly chart. The non leadership of the small stocks is not a positive. The leadership of the Dow here is usually a late stage bull market indicator. We'll see how things play out from here. Europe and Asia were weaker in overnight trade. We'll have the quarterly expiration as we close out the trading week tomorrow.