Monday, June 26, 2017
We started the day with a gain of over 100 points on the Dow but faded for the rest of the session. The Dow finished with a gain of 14 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index should be back to trending up. The NASDAQ was a loser as the overall market picture here is mixed. We haven't been able to sustain a rally but we haven't sold off yet either. The S&P 500 tried the 2450 level again and was turned back. If we could make it through there on good volume, the rally would be on. The short term technical indicators are mid-range. I'm unsure of what to do here. GE was up a few cents and the volume was lighter. Gold dropped over ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. The fact that the gold shares didn't drop with the price of gold is an encouraging sign for the gold share bulls. But it's only one days worth of price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. When in doubt, stay out is an old wall street saying. Getting mixed signals here as the small stocks look like they're ready to roll over here again. The VIX is back below 10 as well. I do not have a clear direction of where things are going to go here. I was sold on the downside as of last week but we've had plenty of chances to drop and it hasn't happened. The Bollinger bands are converging, so something has to give soon. The big cap short term indicators are starting to turn back up again. You can really make a case for either direction. There's still plenty of time left in the July option cycle so there is no hurry to do something. We also have a long holiday weekend coming up. So I will try and be patient and wait for a legitimate signal. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things shape up tomorrow.