Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 61 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. This should turn the summation index lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. We did not get any upside follow through to yesterdays gains. There is a chance that yesterday was a short term top as the technical indicators have now rolled over on the charts. The TRAN got clobbered today. The negative divergences that I have previously mentioned may now come home to roost. It is only one day lower but I have the feeling that this could be the beginning of something more. The Dow has been leading the way here and that is usually a late stage of the up trend event. GE was off 2/3 and the volume was heavy. The resistance at $29 is pretty strong. Gold and the US dollar were both little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I did place an open order for some ABX October calls. We'll need to see a drop in ABX for this order to be filled. ABX was off 1/8 today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I really think we're going to head lower here as the signs of technical deterioration have been there for a while. The under performance of the small stocks has not been a good sign for the bulls. Yesterdays rally was on light volume. We also finished near the lows for the session. The SPY options are still rather pricey with so much time left until the July expiration. But the market won't wait around if it wants to go lower. I'll check the option premiums again tonight and try to come up with an entry point. We will also need to see some follow through lower on Wednesday to confirm the weakness. If we do head lower I think that will confirm my thoughts. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. So after we saw a global push into stocks on Monday, we got the exact opposite on Tuesday. I think that caution is advised. This has the potential to be something more than just a pause before we move higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.