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Friday, June 06, 2014

The employment report has came and went as the Dow continues to climb higher.  The most watched index gained 87 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The stock indexes are extremely overbought and there isn't even a hint of a pullback.  It defies both logic and gravity.  However the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  My June OEX puts are essentially dead.  I'll sell them next week.  Shorts have been squeezed and the volume remains very lackluster.  Signals just are not working right now.  I will be heading to the sidelines.  There is no overhead resistance.  GE had a good day too, gaining 1/3 on better volume.  Overbought here as well.  Gold sold off a little but came back to be unchanged.  The US dollar was little changed on the session.  The XAU was flat but did come back from earlier losses.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume and little conviction.  Despite an incredible rise for overall stocks, the gold shares are going nowhere.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Daily and weekly overextended for the stock indices but higher we go.  The negative seasonal pattern normally seen is nonexistent.  You cannot fight price and I have tried to do that with the usual losing results.  There is still plenty of money flowing into stocks from somewhere.  When the normal technical signals don't work, that has to tell you something.  I'll be headed to the sidelines after selling out the June OEX put trade for a substantial loss.  Gold remains unloved and unimportant in the investment world for now.  Oversold and no real bounce to speak of.  I will be getting long the gold share calls again at some point this summer.  But none of my ideas have been working lately.  The sell signals for the stock indexes are not working.  I think that we are in some kind of blow off top.  How far it can go is anybodies guess.  I do think that when it ends, it will not end well.  But I do not know when it will end.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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