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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Upside and more than expected as the Dow rose 98 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The Fed spoke and the market liked what it heard.  The trend remains up.  Plenty of liquidity in the marketplace.  Money continues to find a home in stocks.  The positive expiration bias remains in place.  Some of the major stock indices hit new all time highs.  There is no upside resistance.  And on it goes.  Enjoy the ride.  It won't last forever.  GE was flat on the session but did come off of its lows.  Gold was little changed in the regular session but was up six bucks in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower on Fed speak.  The XAU climbed 2 1/3 as the gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself.  ABX and NEM were up 1/3 or so, while GG gained a buck.  Volume was good.  I have missed this upside move in the gold shares and it does not feel good.  There hasn't been any move back towards the down trend line that was broken.  GG is the strongest of the big three and has a pretty good potential reverse head and shoulders pattern on its weekly chart.  One of the reasons that I think the gold share rally has plenty of legs is the fact that nobody is talking about it.  I still want to get some October gold share calls at some point.  Mentally I'm frustrated.  My timing has been off.  Things have not gone my way in the first half of 2014.  My trading tactics have been poor.  My risk management has been non existent.  This is not the way to go about trading if you want to be successful.  I will have to do better.  The stock market continues higher.  I still believe that we are in for some kind of decent decline between now and autumn.  The volume has been light for the last 500 points on the Dow.  We are in the 2nd year of the presidential term.  The Fed is pulling back on the bond buying.  January was a down month.  Sooner of later all of these factors will come home to roost.  The gold shares have been acting well.  I do think that this is for real.  I can only hope that I will get the chance to make some money off of it but I will not chase it at this point.  We'll see if we get some follow through on todays market upside tomorrow. 

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