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Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Finally some downside today as the Dow fell 102 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  This helps start to relieve the extreme overbought condition of the stock indices.  I don't think it's the start of anything big to the downside but my guesses have been way off lately.  Perhaps now we can start to build some kind of top for a more meaningful decline later on.  This would take time though.  Seven days to go in the June option cycle.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  It looks like we've stalled here after a three day run up.  Gold was flat on the session as was the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1 1/2 though as lately the gold shares have outperformed the precious metal.  That is a positive.  In the past couple of weeks the gold shares have quietly risen over 5%.  Some down trend lines have been broken.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on better volume.  Getting to the overbought range on the technicals here but not all the way there yet.  I would not chase things here but keep an eye for the next move lower.  That could be the entry point for the October calls.  Unless things are getting ready to move much higher from here for gold.  If that is the case, it may be too late.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN is starting to roll over here and that could be a leading indicator.  Or not.  No uptrend lines have been violated yet for the TRAN.  One down day doesn't make a decline for the stock indexes.  I still think the risk here is that we will be moving lower more than higher.  But I said that 50 points ago for the S&P 500 and was wrong.  There still seems to be plenty of money looking for a home in stocks.  I like the way the gold shares have acted lately, moving higher under the radar.  Perhaps there is some accumulation going on.  Or it could just be a dead cat bounce.  Time will tell.  I'll be keeping an eye on it but I have already lost some money in gold this year.  Retail sales data out tomorrow should be the main event for the stock market.  We'll see what happens.

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