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Monday, June 23, 2014

The Dow fell just about 10 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  An uneventful session for stocks today.  I do expect a decent move for stocks tomorrow or the next day based on the McClellan oscillator.  The only unknown is the direction.  Still short term overbought on the major indices.  GE was off almost 1/3 and the volume was average.  No trades here for now.  Gold was up a buck or so on the futures.  The US dollar was a touch lower.  The XAU rose 1 3/4 and continues to outperform gold itself.  It has been practically a straight line up for the gold shares.  ABX and NEM gained 1/3, while GG added 2/3.  Volume was light here today.  I still am waiting for some pullback in the gold shares but it appears that it may not occur.  Patience doesn't seem like it is going to pay off here.  I am a believer in this move higher for the gold shares and gold.  The reasons are unknown but the market always knows more than we do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Stocks are overdue for an extended decline.  But so far, it just hasn't happened.  There is still plenty of money to go around.  The trend is up.  The recent spike in gold, silver and the mining shares has been sharp.  Overbought to be sure here.  My advice would be to not chase it now.  Wait for some kind of pullback and then purchase the calls of September or October.  I could be wrong and often am.  But this move had plenty of volume and appears to be for real.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and go from there.

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