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Tuesday, June 17, 2014

A drift higher today as the Dow gained 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Positive stock market action is expected this week but I don't see any huge breakout move higher coming anytime soon.  There are no divergences for now and the longer term uptrend lines are still intact.  We'll get the Fed out of the way tomorrow and then we'll probably focus on the geopolitical situation.  The short term technicals are turning up.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  The gold futures were off a few bucks but came off of the lows for the session.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up 1/2 and came off of its lows as well.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Still waiting for a move back towards the broken downtrend lines for the gold shares.  Short term overbought here now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just hanging around now for the stock indexes.  We were very overbought and then relieved that condition.  So now we are in a wait and see mode in my opinion.  The seasonals here are not positive for stocks.  The ideal scenario would be to build some sort of top over the next few weeks.  Gold has found some buyers with the Iraq tensions.  Resistance remains at $1280.  The gold shares have acted better here and that is where I am looking for my next trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments as we wait on the Fed tomorrow.

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