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Monday, May 12, 2014

We got the break out and it's to the upside.  The Dow gained 112 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index should be heading higher after today.  The small stocks rallied good as well.  The positive expiration week bias is in effect.  There is no overhead resistance for the big cap indices.  The only caveat is the low volume.  I never trust light volume rallies.  My guess is that this will be the last run upwards before we move into a corrective or negative phase for stocks.  But my guesses haven't been that good lately.  GE was up 3/8 with the same light volume.  Not close to the highs here as GE is still negative for the year.  Gold was up around $8 and came off of much lower prices overnight.  The US dollar was little changed.  The gold shares really didn't get going as the XAU only rose 1 1/4.  ABX up 1/8, GG was flat and NEM gained 1/2.  Volume remains very light here with no interest.  I dumped the May ABX calls that I had for an 85% loss.  Held on too long as usual.  Only four days left for these options and only a dramatic upswing would save them but probably only to cut the loss.  The odds of that happening are slim.  The June ABX calls I have are at break even.  The multi-week trend line for ABX is still holding.  Plenty of time on the June option cycle but more sideways lack of movement here or a break of the trend line will doom this trade as well.  But I'm counting on the trend line holding up.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected.  The losing trade closed out today was my first loss for the year but I haven't made too many trades.  I am not getting too excited over the current rally.  Low volume and weak seasonals are working against chasing the stock indexes at this time.  I will probably be looking at the June OEX puts at some point.  However it looks like this week will trend higher.  Gold has every reason to move higher today with all the problems around the world.  However the move higher was muted in my opinion.  There is no interest in owning gold.  We've got inflation data out in the next two trading sessions.  Perhaps that can get things going here.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

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